Patternus Interruptus

[frash.exe]

It's often been said with a certain assurance that whenever Fox has a good year he follows it up with a mediocre, underachieving team performance the next. These tendencies were characteristic of the era of Trgovac and Henning and DeShaun Foster at running back but probably not anymore. Which is why it's not really focusing on the here and now when people say, "well we were 12-4 last year so don't expect anything special this year". It's definitely possible the problem might lie much further up the ladder than players and coordinators, but it's also likely that's where the problems were in the first place.

I've stated before that the scheme of the defense doesn't have to change, except for a few minor tweaks here and there, such as not lining up the fuging corners 15 miles behind the line of scrimmage, especially when it's third and short. If Meeks can coach these guys to be more aggressive in a base zone defense, you will see improvement. We don't have to transform our Cover 3 into a Cover 2.

In Davidson's first year with a decent starting QB he coordinated the Panthers' most prolific offense in the entire Fox era. ...He also got caught with his pants down in the playoffs. But it was a learning experience for him. Besides, his predecessor didn't do any better coordinating his own offense in the playoffs either.

DeAngelo Williams rushed for more TDs this year than Foster got in his entire career. This will be the first season the starting 5 linemen are the same people we had in the same spots last year *knock on wood*.

Yes Kemo getting hurt was a bummer and we are going to need to find an answer stat but Meeks has worked with DTs nearly 100lbs lighter than Maake and ended up giving up less than 300 points on defense the past two years. Sure run defense sucked but you can't expect shutdown D when you've got Eric Foster who is lighter than Charles Johnson starting at tackle (please no one think I'm implying we should put CJ in at DT)

So for everybody who is predicting 7-9 like it's inevitable, try to look beyond depthless statistical patterns and realize that things have changed, for the better. This team can compete with anybody out there, we just need to maintain our swagger and confidence, and put our mind to the fuging game.

[joemac]

Good post....but I really dont think that most people are predicting 7-9. People around here want to err on the side of caution because we have never had success in 2 straight years. I actually think that the jobs Fox has done with his teams after the successful seasons have been some of his best jobs. The injuries we have have can not be denied.

[Fireball77]

What Davidson did in the playoffs makes more sense after hearing Meat (I think it was) talking about how Fox lacked confidence in Trgo's defense. That said, when the Davidson criticism had a bunch of posts way back when I actually looked at the game log... every single effing line of it (UGH)... and IIRC it looked like they started throwing a bunch mainly on first down. I will probably never ever ever go back and watch that game again (though I do have it) to check this out but I bet it was to back the 8 out of the box since the Cards seemed to have shut the run down after that first drive (and it didn't help matters that after that first score, the D gave a TD right back to AZ). That also lends some credence to what Meat said about Trgo (I tend to take what he says factually about the team pretty seriously since he probably still has connections). My conclusion was Jake screwing up was pretty much Jake screwing up, I don't blame Davidson for that.

Anyhoo... I agree that last year is meaningless right now as far as this year's results. The only thing that is meaningful about it is if they learned from their mistakes and improved.

[southcakalac]

try to look beyond depthless statistical patterns and realize that things have changed, for the better.

ha, try telling that to Saints fans

[joemac]

ha, try telling that to Saints fans

Obviously they should start casting Brees' bust for Canton now....

[frash.exe]

What Davidson did in the playoffs makes more sense after hearing Meat (I think it was) talking about how Fox lacked confidence in Trgo's defense. That said, when the Davidson criticism had a bunch of posts way back when I actually looked at the game log... every single effing line of it (UGH)... and IIRC it looked like they started throwing a bunch mainly on first down. I will probably never ever ever go back and watch that game again (though I do have it) to check this out but I bet it was to back the 8 out of the box since the Cards seemed to have shut the run down after that first drive (and it didn't help matters that after that first score, the D gave a TD right back to AZ). That also lends some credence to what Meat said about Trgo (I tend to take what he says factually about the team pretty seriously since he probably still has connections). My conclusion was Jake screwing up was pretty much Jake screwing up, I don't blame Davidson for that.

Anyhoo... I agree that last year is meaningless right now as far as this year's results. The only thing that is meaningful about it is if they learned from their mistakes and improved.

From the one time I ever watched that game, after that first TD drive, the AZ defense got a shitload of penetration into the backfield, tackling DeAngelo for a loss or little gain. That's partly why we abandoned the run so early. The other part was Trgovac apparently forgetting we were supposed to play a game that Saturday.

[GRWatcher]

We, the Panthers, broke the myth last year that the last team in the NFC South is always first the next year. Let's break another one and have back-to-back winning seasons. No reason to stop now. :gnorsi:

[panthers55]

It's often been said with a certain assurance that whenever Fox has a good year he follows it up with a mediocre, underachieving team performance the next. These tendencies were characteristic of the era of Trgovac and Henning and DeShaun Foster at running back but probably not anymore. Which is why it's not really focusing on the here and now when people say, "well we were 12-4 last year so don't expect anything special this year". It's definitely possible the problem might lie much further up the ladder than players and coordinators, but it's also likely that's where the problems were in the first place.

I've stated before that the scheme of the defense doesn't have to change, except for a few minor tweaks here and there, such as not lining up the fuging corners 15 miles behind the line of scrimmage, especially when it's third and short. If Meeks can coach these guys to be more aggressive in a base zone defense, you will see improvement. We don't have to transform our Cover 3 into a Cover 2.

In Davidson's first year with a decent starting QB he coordinated the Panthers' most prolific offense in the entire Fox era. ...He also got caught with his pants down in the playoffs. But it was a learning experience for him. Besides, his predecessor didn't do any better coordinating his own offense in the playoffs either.

DeAngelo Williams rushed for more TDs this year than Foster got in his entire career. This will be the first season the starting 5 linemen are the same people we had in the same spots last year *knock on wood*.

Yes Kemo getting hurt was a bummer and we are going to need to find an answer stat but Meeks has worked with DTs nearly 100lbs lighter than Maake and ended up giving up less than 300 points on defense the past two years. Sure run defense sucked but you can't expect shutdown D when you've got Eric Foster who is lighter than Charles Johnson starting at tackle (please no one think I'm implying we should put CJ in at DT)

So for everybody who is predicting 7-9 like it's inevitable, try to look beyond depthless statistical patterns and realize that things have changed, for the better. This team can compete with anybody out there, we just need to maintain our swagger and confidence, and put our mind to the fuging game.

Agree with your general premise that we aren't destined to be 7-9 and that we have the most talent that I can remember on a Fox coached team.

One point about the cover 2 versus 3, if you want us to play aggressively off the line with our corners then we can't use a cover 3 like we did. Our cover three counted on the corners and free safety to play deep thirds. That means their first priority is to establish their depth which has them backpedaling right away which is 10 yards behind the line.

A cover 2 relies on the safeties to be deep and in a Tampa 2 for the MLB to play deep middle. The corners have the under zones from the line of scrimmage to 10-15 yards back on either side assuming the linebackers are in a zone as well. So if we want corners to be physical off the line it makes a lot od sense to go from a cover 3 to a cover 2 as long as Harris can cover. We are actually suited for more cover 1 with man under but Fox seems to be a zone cover 2/3 kind of guy. By the way, Meeks ran a lot of cover 1 robber in Indy. That is a deep free safety, man under by the corners and linebackers with the strong safety playing medium deep watching the quarterbacks eyes and robbing the middle curls and screens and scrambles.

This article is mostly about Nick Saban's defenses at Alabama but mentions Indy's cover 1 robber about halfway through.

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2009/06/repost-preview-of-nick-sabans-alabama.html

Here is a great discussion of the cover 2 and variations.

http://www.trojanfootballanalysis.com/attacking_cover2.html

Agree with the D line discussion and Davidson learning and improving as he goes. I am very optimistic.

[rippadonn]

Agree with your general premise that we aren't destined to be 7-9 and that we have the most talent that I can remember on a Fox coached team.

One point about the cover 2 versus 3, if you want us to play aggressively off the line with our corners then we can't use a cover 3 like we did. Our cover three counted on the corners and free safety to play deep thirds. That means their first priority is to establish their depth which has them backpedaling right away which is 10 yards behind the line.

A cover 2 relies on the safeties to be deep and in a Tampa 2 for the MLB to play deep middle. The corners have the under zones from the line of scrimmage to 10-15 yards back on either side assuming the linebackers are in a zone as well. So if we want corners to be physical off the line it makes a lot od sense to go from a cover 3 to a cover 2 as long as Harris can cover. We are actually suited for more cover 1 with man under but Fox seems to be a zone cover 2/3 kind of guy. By the way, Meeks ran a lot of cover 1 robber in Indy. That is a deep free safety, man under by the corners and linebackers with the strong safety playing medium deep watching the quarterbacks eyes and robbing the middle curls and screens and scrambles.

This article is mostly about Nick Saban's defenses at Alabama but mentions Indy's cover 1 robber about halfway through.

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2009/06/repost-preview-of-nick-sabans-alabama.html

Here is a great discussion of the cover 2 and variations.

http://www.trojanfootballanalysis.com/attacking_cover2.html

Agree with the D line discussion and Davidson learning and improving as he goes. I am very optimistic.

Damn good post. Panthers55 you sound like a coach yourself. Did you play in college or something? As always, thanks for your insight.

[Jangler]

Good post....but I really dont think that most people are predicting 7-9. People around here want to err on the side of caution because we have never had success in 2 straight years. I actually think that the jobs Fox has done with his teams after the successful seasons have been some of his best jobs. The injuries we have have can not be denied.

That seems to be a lot of predictions from "meh Panthers crowd" at least on the huddle.

[jpo287]

It's definitely possible the problem might lie much further up the ladder than players and coordinators, but it's also likely that's where the problems were in the first place.

Your saying the same coaching staff that got the Panther's to a couple of NFC championships games as well as a SB are responsible for their "losing" record the following year? I know it's popular to blame Trgo for everything that has ever gone wrong with the Panther's but that's really stretching it. If you really want to know what caused the losing record, just look at the strength of schedule and injuries.

Pretty much, every year the Panther's have a winning season, they are scheduled against the weak NFC conference and have few injuries. When they have a losing season, they are scheduled against a stronger NFC division and seem to have an abundance of major injuries to key players. It's that simple.

If you really must believe the inconsistency is from the coaching staff, than it would have to be because of John Fox - that I might could agree with.

[frash.exe]

One point about the cover 2 versus 3, if you want us to play aggressively off the line with our corners then we can't use a cover 3 like we did. Our cover three counted on the corners and free safety to play deep thirds. That means their first priority is to establish their depth which has them backpedaling right away which is 10 yards behind the line.

very true

[Fireball77]

I think any combo of things can make or break a SB team. Such as: can you really make a case that Brian Billick was a better HC than Marty Schottenheimer was even though Billick has a ring and Marty doesn't? I can't. You don't have to have the BEST HC to win or get to a SB or even the best staff, but you'd better be great in some other areas. And you HAVE to HAVE to HAVE to get some breaks and/or have a bit of luck or something fortuitous spurring you like a bad game that springboards you instead of tanking you or something.

And yes RB I do recall that backfield penetration by AZ now that you mention it. Bleh.

[Snake]

Any good coach can over come injuries. Great ones find ways when there are none just like last year with NE. Tell the truth did anyone see Matt Cassel doing as well as he did?

Trgo never had answers for any problems we had and I am hoping Meeks dose.