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Agree/disagree: LaFell is better than Cotchery, Underwood, and Avant


Sam Mills Fan

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last season...

B. LaFell- 49 rec 627 yd 12.8 ypc 5 td 6 drops 1 fumble

Cotchery- 46 rec 602 yd 13.1 ypc 10 td 2 drops

future cap hits...

B. LaFell- '14 2mil, '15 3.2mil, '16 3.8mil

Cotchery- '14 1.7mil, '15 1.9mil, ('16-18 1.4mil; voidable)

Scoreboard...

Gettleman- 1

Belichick- 0

Belichick has 3 Super Bowl wins as a coach/GM so naw.

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Thing you have to remember about Lafell is he had very similar production from 2011 to 2013 and his hands were great for the first two of those years with only 4 drops total. 2010 and 2013 were worse. His drop rate is pretty much identical to Smith's over the last four years.

Cotchery also managed 8 drops in 2010 which was among the worst rates in the league.

Not sure why anyone thinks this is a huge upgrade or downgrade besides the contract size

Are we really talking about 4 years ago? Cotchery had 10 touchdowns last year. LaFell had 5, and none of those came in the final 5 games of the season (including the playoff game) where we needed him the most.

What ultimately matters is how LaFell performed in a contract year, and when Steve Smith missed time. He disappeared. I always liked LaFell, and I wish him well in New England, but I'm not going to kid myself, if he had showed up to close the season we may likely have given him an extension. He didn't, and that's that.

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LaFell is gone for a reason and it isn't just money.  WE really didn't see him as the future.  Why are Avant and Cotchery here?  To provide some production and mentor the young guys.  That alone is reason enough to put them ahead of LaFell.  LaFell wasn't a leader and in fact needed mentoring. He was never going to be a number 1.  His production hadn't improved and he didn't have great upside.  Underwood has much more potential than LaFell which puts him ahead of him as well.  I don't know he would be a number 1 but he can take the top off and go deep which we need.

 

LaFell in a different situation with a different team might have great production elsewhere. He just was going nowhere here and wasn't worth what NE paid for us to keep him.  So it isn't who is going to be better since LaFell wasn't the answer and both Avant and Cotchery are short term fixes while we build our receiver corps for the future.  It is who is right for this team now and just from a dollar point of view those 3 cost less than LaFell did by himself.

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Are we really talking about 4 years ago? Cotchery had 10 touchdowns last year. LaFell had 5, and none of those came in the final 5 games of the season (including the playoff game) where we needed him the most.

What ultimately matters is how LaFell performed in a contract year, and when Steve Smith missed time. He disappeared. I always liked LaFell, and I wish him well in New England, but I'm not going to kid myself, if he had showed up to close the season we may likely have given him an extension. He didn't, and that's that.

 

You are guilty of something pretty common which is endpoint bias. Numbers tend to revert to the mean. Over the last 4 years the numbers for Lafell and Cotchery aren't that different. 13 TDS vs 14, comparable yards, comparable drops. Both are typical support WRs. There is no good reason to believe he will come anywhere close to his TD production from last year

 

Last time this year we were talking about how good Lafell's hands are.

 

I'm not hearing much evidence on why this is an upgrade yet. There is a reason he is being paid essentially the vet minimum next year.

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You are guilty of something pretty common which is endpoint bias. Numbers tend to revert to the mean. Over the last 4 years the numbers for Lafell and Cotchery aren't that different. 13 TDS vs 14, comparable yards, comparable drops. Both are typical support WRs. There is no good reason to believe he will come anywhere close to his TD production from last year

Last time this year we were talking about how good Lafell's hands are.

I'm not hearing much evidence on why this is an upgrade yet. There is a reason he is being paid essentially the vet minimum next year.

Bias? Dude I've been a big LaFell supporter before the 2013 season lol.

I'm not saying it's a "huge" upgrade, but I like Cotchery just fine.

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Bias? Dude I've been a big LaFell supporter before the 2013 season lol.

I'm not saying it's a "huge" upgrade, but I like Cotchery just fine.

 

Endpoint bias in numbers not personal bias.

 

It is the same reason that CRA was claiming that Deangelo is a fumbling problem after he had 2 fumbles in our home opener against Seattle. As most of us suspected it was a fluke.

 

edit: and the same reason that people were predicting decades of massive hurricanes after 2005.

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