Just for speculation purposes.

[Ivan The Awesome]

Say The brass deems Smith not worth bringing back. Will this team really be ok? With Gross Retiring, the WR corp looking like a pile of Poop after Smith is released. Olsen would be the only target Cam would have. Unless Ginn comes back. I don't see this team's offense being okay. Smith, regardless of his age, demanded a double team. The schematics of the offense would change comepletely. I would love Ginn to come back and be the #1 and draft a young stud. If Smith is let go, the top priority of this team would have to be WR and O line help. Tagging hardy would only alleviate that problem for a bit until a certain decision is made that reveals the future. The Defense is good enough to keep us and win us games, I just don't know if burdening that Defense more than we should is a wise decision. Then again, relying on a 35 yo vet so much isn't either. At least Gettleman is being proactive and trying to fix things. So many needs and holes...smh.

[therealmjl]

So let me get this straight....we are not allowed to participate in FA or the NFL Draft this year?

You're right...we are fuged.

[Ruff]

Sadly, Ginn doesn't have what it takes to be a number one. He does one thing, runs really fast.

If smith is let to Wharton retires, we could have a really rough season this year, especially with what I expect will be a very different Bucs team on the rise.

[Cary Kollins]

So if we banish Smith from the NFL and don't draft or get any FA's.....nah we'll be fine.

 

 

Just convert Cam to Wide Receiver and have Chase Blackburn line up at tight end.  Olsen, line him up at LT, but make him eligible somehow, to throw off the defense.

 

Always line Gano up 20 yards in the backfield, to keep the defense guessing if we might punt it or try some absurd field goal. 

 

Sounds crazy, but I think it would be confusing enough so it just might work.

[TheRed]

Just wait until the games are actually played, if we decide to part ways with Smith.

 

I think many will be changing their tunes pretty damn quick. This place will be on suicide watch.

[MHS831]

Steve Smith’s Contract Situation with the Carolina Panthers

Jason Fitzgerald

OverTheCap.com

...

Smith has three big money years remaining on his contract that he signed in 2012. The extension was more or less designed to be a two year deal that provided immediate salary cap relief that provided the Panthers with a five month renegotiating window in 2014. In 2012 Smith was in the final year of his contract and set to count for $10.7 M against the salary cap. Set to earn $7.75 M, the Panthers increased his salary to $11 M and fully guaranteed him an additional $3.75 M in 2013 and $3 M in 2014. Carolina got his cap number down to a manageable $5,996,989 in 2012 and at worst was going to pay him $17.75 M for two years of work in '12 and '13.

Smith will earn $7 million in 2014, $7 million in 2015, and $9 million in 2016 under his current contract structure. Those numbers are unsustainable at his age. While NFL contracts are not guaranteed, the Panthers poor cap management and heavy reliance on prorated bonuses has placed large amounts of dead money on the books for most of their players, Smith included. A portion of Smith’s $7 million salary in 2014 is one of those prorated bonuses. If the Panthers leave the contract as is that will lock them into a charge of at least $6 million in 2015 even if he retires or is released. Here are the actual salaries earned by some of the more recent “name players” from the ages of 35 onward with Smith’s current contract included for reference.

In looking at these numbers I think both sides can make a case that the $7 million figure should or should not stand. From the Panthers perspective he would be the highest earning player at that age, but from his perspective it would not be by much and the Panthers should reward him for a long and very good career, which justifies that number. What he can not justify are the $7 and $9 million charges coming in 2015 and 2016.

Carolina has three big contracts that will be coming due in the next few years and the team needs to put aside salary cap space for those players. DE Greg Hardy is a free agent this season and should command well over $12 million a year. The following season QB Cam Newton will either be playing on a high cost option, that pays around $14 million, or on a long term contract that pays $16-$18 million a year. Finally LB Luke Kuechly will be extension eligible in 2015. This is going to not only put a drain on the Panthers already difficult cap situation but is also going to require ownership to pay millions of dollars to star players. It becomes more difficult to make large payments and allocate large cap dollars to former superstar players with these big deals on the horizon.

Smith has $3 million that is fully protected this year in the event he is released, but the Panthers have time to decide on his fate which works to their advantage. Smith has an option bonus due of $3 million but the team has until June 30 to make a decision on this option. Normally the option would need to be exercised in the first few days of the League Year to facilitate a quick release for the player. By the time they would decide in this case, though, the bigger money in free agency will have dried up.

If the team fails to pick up the option and release Smith by July 1 they will owe him a $3 million non-exercise fee. If they release him they will need to pay him $3 million in fully guaranteed base salary. So $3 million of this money is indeed protected for Smith. In addition I believe that Smith’s guarantee is of the no-offset variety meaning he can double dip if released. So at a minimum Smith will earn $4 million in the NFL this season and most likely a few dollars more.

The Panthers would gain little by releasing Smith. His cap charge for the year would be $6 million, assuming his is a post June 1, and he is currently only counting for $7 million. The team would then be responsible for $3 million in cap charges in 2015 ($4 million in acceleration and a $1 million credit for not picking up the option). His roster spot would also need to be replaced by someone making at least the minimum of $420,000. What it boils down to is that releasing Smith in 2014 is going to cost the Panthers $9.84 million in cap space and $3.84 million in cash plus a somewhat negative PR situation over the next two seasons.

The best case for both sides is to find a way to make Smith’s contract more reasonable for his age and expected performance level

. According to a source with knowledge of Smith’s contract his true cash salary in 2014 would be $5.5 million due to half of his option being deferred until 2015. That should be the first starting point. Eliminate the option and pay him $5.5 million in 2015, with $2 million coming as a roster bonus in June (thus getting him more immediate cash than he would get in the option) and reducing his P5 to fully guaranteed $3.5 million. $5.5 million is likely more than he would make if the situation dragged out and he was released on July 1.

The trickier part of the negotiation is what is a fair value beyond this season. While most players seem to believe that there are greener pastures in free agency most often there are not. Players with a long history in one city often get a great deal of leeway when it comes to performance and expectations. Smith’s struggles in Carolina would be looked at less critically than in another city. He would retain a big role simply because of his name value in Carolina and both fans and media (and some likely within the organization) will rationalize a year where he catches 46 passes for 554 yards like he did in 2010.

The same can’t be said in another city. If Smith struggles he’ll likely get benched. Fans and media will be all over him. Even if he does moderately well like the 2010 stat line he’ll probably be cut after the season. After all who wants a 36 year old receiver with mid line numbers when you can find a 28 year old with some upside to do the same? Just look at the treatment Ed Reed received in Houston this year if you want a recent example of aging players trying to fit in with a new franchise where they have no history.

Even as we look at that list above the players who earned the most money all re-signed with the original teams. Wayne, Driver, and Ward finished out (or will finish out) with the Colts, Packers, and Steelers. The Bills and Bengals had no use for Owens after a one year audition. The 49ers showed no interest in doing anything with Moss. The Jets traded away Mason the minute they got him. Muhammad came back to Carolina to earn what he earned.

The Panthers front office likely assumes that if they release Smith, Smith will collect $3 million from Carolina, another $2 million from another team, and then that might be it for his career. His next step is taking a one day contract to retire a Panther. The following is a list of some players who finished up their careers with a different squad than the team they were associated most with post-35 who I felt were noteworthy players.

Of all these players only Rice, McCardell and Owens were useful. Rice’s longevity was legendary as was his career and you can’t really compare him to any player. McCardell was traded to San Diego at the age of 34 but I wanted to include him here since he was a well known player in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. He would last three seasons in San Diego before a tryout in Houston and mid-season run in with the Redskins. Owens, while not a top level player, was still productive and it was his locker room reputation and off the field endeavors that likely saw him more or less blacklisted from the NFL.

For most players it was one and done and a rather nondescript ending to some very productive careers in the NFL. This is probably the reality for Smith if he was to leave the comfort of Carolina. The job for the Panthers is to convince Smith that this is reality if he were to leave. If he was released this season he would likely get one chance with another team and that is the end. At the most he might eek out two seasons.

I’d probably propose something like a $3.5 million salary in 2015 at the age of 36 and $3.0 million salary in 2016 at the age of 37. That gives him a strong chance to earn $9 million by 2015, and that is likely going to be much more than he would earn as a free agent. He also wont have to chance finishing his career in a place he is not appreciated nor will he have to deal with the headache of moving for what may be just one season. His cap charges would fall from $10 million and $12 million under his current deal to $5.5 million and $5.0 million. Dead money in 2015 would fall from $6 million to $4 million and in 2016 from $3 million to $2 million.

The one thing that I would not do if I was Carolina is use the void year provision that they are slowly falling in love with for cap relief. The purpose of doing anything with the Smith deal is to maintain your cap flexibility in the future. To prorate money out five years for a few dollars in cap room now is counter-productive.

But I do think it is good for both sides to continue the relationship. Smith can still play and it is not as if the Panthers are exploding with offensive talent that they can just ship him out and plug someone into the spot, even if they draft his replacement and attempt to use that as leverage. I doubt this is a situation settled anytime soon, but I think most fans of the game would like to see Smith finish his career in Carolina.

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[TheRed]

You can post his contract numbers until you are blue in the face.

 

Let's talk about who you think can realistically step in, and replace him, at the cheap price that we are expecting.

[pantherclaw]

I speculate that this thread is and will be a moot point.

[Ivan The Awesome]

@Mjligon Never did I say that. The point went completely over your head. Replacing smith is the problem. You can't just 'replace' the guy. Tagging Hardy won't leave much money either way, so what can you get with peanuts?

[Ruff]

You can post his contract numbers until you are blue in the face.

Let's talk about who you think can realistically step in, and replace him, at the cheap price that we are expecting.

Exactly. Good luck finding some bargain bin dude to come in and do what Smitty does. Or, better yet, have fun replacing him in the draft, and watching the rookie WR look lost for the first month of the season.

[jptaylor84]

Wow the optimism on here is at an all time high! Steve gets cut we may as well wind the franchise down... Get a grip times move on he was alway going to have to be replaced whether it be now or next year, yes would be a luxury to have his successor here ready but because the last regime fugged up any chance with bad WR moves that may not happen now and we will have to start from scratch

[MHS831]

2 points have to be considered silumultaneously.  1. We cannot afford Smitty on his current contract at his current level of production.  (Replacing 745 yards is not that hard or expensive)  2. We need Smitty in more ways than his productivity in 2013 suggests.

 

Smith will earn $7 million in 2014, $7 million in 2015, and $9 million in 2016 under his current contract structure. Those numbers are unsustainable at his age.  Since we are locked into some of that money, it probably isn't the best idea to cut Smitty and try to replace his productivity.

 

However, Smitty earned almost $10,000 per yard gained last season.  Worth it?

[TheRed]

Yes, all we need to do is replace 745 yards of production. Wait, what?

[woodboxer]

As much as I would like to go to the playoffs every year, we seem to be in a quasi-rebuilding mode. With all of the holes that need to be filled, I don't mind taking a step back this year and let Gettleman continue to move this team in the right direction. They don't need to squandering a big chunk of the cap to keep Hardy around for maybe one more year or over-reaching for an LT. We're taking baby steps, but we are learning to walk again. I would love for SS to stay another 10 years if he could, but at some point we are going to replace him. Hopefully, not this year but soon. It seems like we've got a lot going on this offseason and I'll just sit back and let the big boys handle this.