Fox presser

[CatMan72]

That is absolutely false.

 

Oh really?

 

Go look up the % of converting 3rd and long with a draw play and come back... I'll wait. 

[heel31ok]

Oh really?

 

Go look up the % of converting 3rd and long with a draw play and come back... I'll wait. 

 Don't need to look it up to know slim and none is a ridiculous statement.

[Jangler]

This thread needs to be snowed in.

[CatMan72]

 Don't need to look it up to know slim and none is a ridiculous statement.

 

Well, lets see... I have a copy of the football outsiders 2010 almanac and it tells me that only 5 out of 33 3rd and long draw play attempts were converted during that season, so that means it was only successful 15% of the time. 

 

The overall conversion rate of 3rd and long plays that season was 29% so running a draw on 3rd and long put you well below the average, in fact it was just about half as less likely to convert as the average 3rd and long play. 

 

Screen plays had a 25% success rate. 

 

Passes thrown short of the sticks had a 24% success rate. 

 

Passes thrown beyond the sticks had a 47% success rate. 

 

So in summary, a draw on 3rd and long is the lowest percentage play you can run when attempting to pick up a 1st down. We can argue semantics, but something that is only successful 15% of the time qualifies as "slim and none" in my book. 

 

Yes, this data only represents 2010 but I promise you if you bought the 2011, 2012 and 2013 almanacs you would find almost exactly the same ratios. 

[heel31ok]

Well, lets see... I have a copy of the football outsiders 2010 almanac and it tells me that only 5 out of 33 3rd and long draw play attempts were converted during that season, so that means it was only successful 15% of the time. 

 

The overall conversion rate of 3rd and long plays that season was 29% so running a draw on 3rd and long put you well below the average, in fact it just about half as less likely to convert as the average 3rd and long play. 

 

Screen plays had a 25% success rate. 

 

Passes thrown short of the sticks had a 24% success rate. 

 

Passes thrown beyond the sticks had a 47% success rate. 

 

So in summary, a draw on 3rd and long is the lowest percentage play you can run when attempting to pick up a 1st down. We can argue semantics, but something that is only successful 15% of the time qualifies as "slim and none" in my book. 

 

Yes, this data only represents 2010 but I promise you if you bought the 2011, 2012 and 2013 almanacs you would find almost exactly the same ratios. 

semantics can be argued, but none would be  zero and you just showed that not to be true. That cannot be argued.

[CatMan72]

semantics can be argued, but none would be  zero and you just showed that not to be true. That cannot be argued.

 

Strawman. 

 

So now you're not challenging the idea that a draw on 3rd and long has very little chance of picking up a 1st down, you're objecting to my use of the word "none"? 

 

This my friend, is an absolutely classic Strawman argument scenario. 

 

I really am done with this thread, it's a complete waste of my time... I've disassembled every point you've attempted to make with facts, stats, etc... and we just keep going around in circles and the only refuge you have left at this point is to object to my use of the word "none". 

 

I'll give you the last word, not that I'll bother reading it, but go ahead if it makes you feel better. 

[Jangler]

[heel31ok]

Strawman. 

 

So now you're not challenging the idea that a draw on 3rd and long has very little chance of picking up a 1st down, you're objecting to my use of the word "none"? 

 

This my friend, is an absolutely classic Strawman argument scenario. 

then you really don't know what a strawman is.which is strange because you have used one multiple times in this discussion. So now you are saying just slim chance? You are dropping the none? Well that is obvious as you have no choice but to drop it because it is ridiculous as I originally said it was.Calling your own argument  strawman is genius.

[fjblair]

Huddle rationale:

 

Broncos winning with Peyton Manning - "We all know Peyton runs that team and Fox has nothing to do with it and is just a figurehead".

 

Broncos get blown out in Super Bowl - "Hahahaha Fox blew it, all his fault, damn he sucks at play calling and can't coach".

 

I don't think that is the case at all and it way oversimplifies the criticism. The first part is true, Manning and company steamrolled all season long and Fox was never called upon to come up with brilliant game plans or adjustments. Then in the SB when Manning was choking and Seattle's defense was stifling Fox was called upon for his coaching prowess. the rest is history.

 

I love this nugget from a Broncos forum:

 

"John Fox held the Broncos back from winning more with The Golden Calf of Bristol and that impressive defense and everyone knows it- nice try. Run, run, run, punt; you remember that? Or how about the fact the offense was complete crap until the coaches opened up the play book with 1 minute left in the game. Or how about the fact Fox tried to roll with Kyle freaking Orton originally that season..

There are very few coaches who have been around as long as him and been so terribly unsuccessful. Guy is worthless in his profession. Nothing against the guy but he doesn't deserve credit for anything- he's never accomplished anything."

[CatMan72]

then you really don't know what a strawman is.which is strange because you have used one multiple times in this discussion. So now you are saying just slim chance? You are dropping the none? Well that is obvious as you have no choice but to drop it because it is ridiculous as I originally said it was.Calling your own argument  strawman is genius.

 

"Slim to none" is just an expression that means very little chance. 

 

Based on 2010 league wide stats, there was very little chance (15%) of converting on 3rd and long with a draw play and I think it's reasonable to assume that the 2011, 2012 and 2013 stats would also show there is very little chance of converting on 3rd and long with a draw play. 

 

Is that fair to say? 

[heel31ok]

"Slim to none" is just an expression that means very little chance. 

 

Based on 2010 league wide stats, there was very little chance (15%) of converting on 3rd and long with a draw play and I think it's reasonable to assume that the 2011, 2012 and 2013 stats would also show there is very little chance of converting on 3rd and long with a draw play. 

 

Is that fair to say? 

every play is unique and has a chance, has the ability to make it work.Again with the D pinning their ears back a draw does more than just attempt to gain yds. It also makes the D hesitate to make sure what the play is which opens up passing plays.

[bleys]

I don't think that is the case at all and it way oversimplifies the criticism. The first part is true, Manning and company steamrolled all season long and Fox was never called upon to come up with brilliant game plans or adjustments. Then in the SB when Manning was choking and Seattle's defense was stifling Fox was called upon for his coaching prowess. the rest is history.

 

I love this nugget from a Broncos forum:

 

"John Fox held the Broncos back from winning more with The Golden Calf of Bristol and that impressive defense and everyone knows it- nice try. Run, run, run, punt; you remember that? Or how about the fact the offense was complete crap until the coaches opened up the play book with 1 minute left in the game. Or how about the fact Fox tried to roll with Kyle freaking Orton originally that season..

There are very few coaches who have been around as long as him and been so terribly unsuccessful. Guy is worthless in his profession. Nothing against the guy but he doesn't deserve credit for anything- he's never accomplished anything."

 

1500 miles away, yet strangely familiar....  

[frash.exe]

1500 miles away, yet strangely familiar....

Nah dude Carolina fans have just been ungrateful and spoiled this entire time....

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

say what you will about fox but he always had his men ready to play

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rC4KFsJwz0