Top 4 Wr ,metrics Watkins,Evans,Benjamin,lee

[micnificent28]

 

Where Did They Catch the Ball?

 

The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.

 

- Sammy Watkins’ receptions stick out like a sore thumb. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s watched Clemson that 57% of Watkins’ catches came off screens. We’ll examine his yards after the catch in relation to screens later in the piece, but that doesn’t discount the fact that you’d like to see more than 30% of his receptions come past 6 yards – just for some variation.

 

- The most normalized reception chart belongs to Mike Evans, who was the closest to average among the top tier. Much will be made about Manziel and Evans’ connection and reliance on each other for deep balls. However, we still have to be impressed by the fact that at 6’5” Evans has caught the highest percentage of receptions past 20 yards amongst the top 15 WRs in this class. 

 

- Like Evans, 25% of Benjamin’s receptions came on throws deeper than 20 yards. Benjamin’s receptions are well distributed among the various zones with the exception of screens. He caught 3 screens on the year where he totaled -8 yards. The screen game is not going to be strong for Kelvin at the next level.

 

- Lee’s receptions are the most stunning, as only 3.5% of his catches (2 receptions) came deeper than 20 yards. He actually dropped more deep passes (3) than he caught. Other than that, we can see the influence of Kiffin’s passing game where the majority of Lee’s receptions came on short passes designed to get yards after the catch.

 

 

What Did They Do After They Caught It?

 

- As alluded to earlier, Marqise Lee was put in situations where he could catch the ball short and take it for good yardage. His 7.05 yards after the catch is top 5 in the class, although his paltry 3.7 yards after the catch on screens leaves a little something to be desired.

 

- We can see the effects of Benjamin’s deep receptions as he caught the ball an average of 13.4 yards from the line of scrimmage, proving to be a solid deep threat. However, his 4.89 yards after the catch is the lowest among the top 15 WRs. That’s not necessarily a problem with a bigger WR as that’s not ‘where he wins’. However, we still have to take that into account when comparing him to other similarly sized WRs.

 

- Benjamin’s YAC becomes relevant when compared to Evans who averaged 7.63 yards after the catch. His yardage wasn’t just racked up on broken Manziel plays. On screens he averaged 8.92 yards after the catch, displaying an innate shiftiness/burst that he may not always get credit for. 

 

- I was a bit hard on Watkins earlier for his lack of receptions downfield, however we have to be impressed with his YAC. Despite catching 70% of his passes within 5 yards of the LOS, where defenses were keying in on him – he averaged the highest YAC of this class gaining 8.48 yards on average. Most importantly he still averaged a solid 6.1 yards on non-screen passes showing he can get it done all over the field

 

How Did they Catch the Ball?

 

The chart below represents the final break each WR made before catching the ball. The goal isn’t to tell you exactly what routes each WR ran, but the variety of breaks they made as well as how those affected their production. For instance, comebacks typically yield very little YAC (2.5 yards on average) while posts/corner/slants yield high yards after the catch. The chart has factored out screens.

 

- When he’s not running screens, Watkins has the most normal distribution of route types. This makes his overall YAC on non-screens all the more impressive because we know he’s not running an excess of routes that lead to exaggerated YAC totals.

 

- As many have surmised via his tape, nearly 44% of Mike Evans’ catches are from coming back to the QB. Whether that’s on a scramble drill or designed route, that high number of comebacks takes away from his experience running sharp-breaking routes like square outs. Although we must consider Evans’ high YAC as a positive sign despite catching so many comebacks.

 

- Most interesting here is Benjamin and FSU’s utilization of the go route to take advantage of his height mismatch, nearly doubling the average for that specific type of route.

 

- Nearly 43% of Marqise Lee’s receptions came on short breaking in/out routes designed to put him in a position to gain yardage after the catch. I’m personally a bit surprised by the lack of post/corner/slants that have seemed to factor more heavily into USC’s past offenses.

 

How Are Their Hands?

 

Here are the drop rates for each of the WRs. I defined drops as balls that were easy receptions and likely bounced off the hands of a WR, not passes that a WR ‘could have caught’ with an acrobatic play. I won’t provide any commentary since it’s pretty self-explanatory.

 

So much of a WR’s numbers depend on the quarterback, so we can’t always use stats as effectively as we do for other positions. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in them. Whether you use them to identify problems with a prospect’s hands or examine a WR’s YAC in depth, there is merit if you understand their potential and limitations. That’s all I have for now. I’ll answer any questions and tweet out additional info I have on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

 

For some reason wouldn't let me post in the other thread.

[Way Truth Life]

I want Benjamin because I believe he may actually still be on the board....these numbers show that he catches the ball down field and has good hands....his height is nice too.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1940326-why-kelvin-benjamin-is-the-ideal-draft-prospect-for-the-carolina-panthers

 

 

[micnificent28]

I want Benjamin because I believe he may actually still be on the board....these numbers show that he catches the ball down field and has good hands....his height is nice too.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1940326-why-kelvin-benjamin-is-the-ideal-draft-prospect-for-the-carolina-panthers

He's been getting a lot of flack around the huddle about his hands and being raw but, at the back of the first round these are the type of players you gamble on and win big with. If benjamin is on the board it is a blessing and i would jump for joy.

[CPF4LIFE]

He's been getting a lot of flack around the huddle about his hands and being raw but, at the back of the first round these are the type of players you gamble on and win big with. If benjamin is on the board it is a blessing and i would jump for joy.

 

Exactly, i could understand if we were picking top 15 like we have been the last 3 years then the concern for Benjamin is a lot more warranted because you cant afford to miss on a pick that high. But we are bottom of the the first round this year and lot more elite players will be gone, this is where you go for the guys that have that upside to become like the elite top players. Its a lot more risk but you have to shoot for the upside. Different situation this year.

[micnificent28]

Exactly, i could understand if we were picking top 15 like we have been the last 3 years then the concern for Benjamin is a lot more warranted because you cant afford to miss on a pick that high. But we are bottom of the the first round this year and lot more elite players will be gone, this is where you go for the guys that have that upside to become like the elite top players. Its a lot more risk but you have to shoot for the upside. Different situation this year.

 

 This times 1000. There is no perfect wideout at 28 and we would be lucky if benjamin is still on the board at th is point. Lot of wr needy teams ahead of us and the big 4 could all easily be gone.

[CPF4LIFE]

 This times 1000. There is no perfect wideout at 28 and we would be lucky if benjamin is still on the board at th is point. Lot of wr needy teams ahead of us and the big 4 could all easily be gone.

 

Look at it from this perspective too, if you pass on Benjamin you risk letting him fall to the Hawk or Niners, 2 teams with great coaching staffs. As raw as Benjamin is we probably dont have anybody that can cover him which is kinda sad lol.

[top dawg]

Why would I pick up a WR with my first round pick that is more raw than let's say a Sefarian-Jenkins or Amaro for instance?  This is even more of a question if I believe that Brandon Coleman may be available in the second, and may ultimately turn out to be the better receiver.

[micnificent28]

Look at it from this perspective too, if you pass on Benjamin you risk letting him fall to the Hawk or Niners, 2 teams with great coaching staffs. As raw as Benjamin is we probably dont have anybody that can cover him which is kinda sad lol.

 

I dont think anyone outside of sherman really can.He is exactly what we need. a big jump ball redzone wr who is also a deep threat. love this kid.

[beastson]

Trade Hardy and get Evans

[AceBoogie]

I don't believe Benjamin will be there when we pick, and I don't believe we would take him if he was. We should, but won't

[Man Strength]

Evans or a te in first plus Landry in second and I would be so so happy. Not gonna happen though

[ThunderKatt]

If Cyrus Kouandjio  is still there, i say go with him.  And move Gross over so we can hold on to him for 3-4 more years., OTCYRUS KOUANDJIO, OT

[Jimmy]

If the majority of your catches are downfield you are apt to drop more than constantly catching short screens and in-routes.  So the drop pecentage for Benjamin doesn't bother me.  What does bother me is the Watkins doesn't seem to be a deep-threat according to these statistics (not that we'd get him anyway inthedraft). Just lookign at the OP I would have to go with Benjamin if I never saw any of these guys play a single down and had to go soley off the stats.

[ThunderKatt]

Between Benjamin and Evans, Evans is the top rated guy off of stats.

If the majority of your catches are downfield you are apt to drop more than constantly catching short screens and in-routes.  So the drop pecentage for Benjamin doesn't bother me.  What does bother me is the Watkins doesn't seem to be a deep-threat according to these statistics (not that we'd get him anyway inthedraft). Just lookign at the OP I would have to go with Benjamin if I never saw any of these guys play a single down and had to go soley off the stats.