49ers @ Panthers: Stats Backed Prediction

[UpstatePanther]

I'll warn everyone off the bat, if you dont like reading or math, i wouldnt read this thread....

 

Okay… Got something I worked on for a few days here and there. Just thought I’d share. So the CatScratchReader has been running an article every week since the first 49er game doing an analysis and prediction for each game. Some of you may have read these articles before. The article basically used "Points For" / "Points Against" statistics to predict the final score of the games. I did some fooling with those stats and figured out the poster’s formula. I didn’t see another article for Sunday’s game so I decided to figure out the prediction myself. The original formula is complicated so bear with me, but it goes like this…

 

The formula is dependent on knowing a few statistics that (unfortunately) are not well known. These include the

• Opponents’ Average Points Allowed (OAPA)
• Opponents’ Average Points Scored (OAPS)

These stats are NOT the simple “Points For” and “Points Against” you might be used to. For the Panthers, this is the average of the average-points-scored/allowed by ALL their opponents. Same for the 49ers. I went through the trouble of gathering the average PF/PA of every team the Panthers and 49ers have played this year and used Excel to compute the averages:

 

• Panthers OAPA: 22.284
• Panthers OAPS: 22.515
• 49ers OAPA: 23.069
• 49ers OAPS: 22.084

The next step is to find the “Average Defensive Adjustment” (ADA) and “Average Offensive Adjustment” (AOA) for each team. The first value shows the difference between the average points a team allows and the average of the average-points-scored by all that team’s opponents. The second value is similar, showing the difference between the average points a team scores and the average-points-allowed by all their opponents. These values basically show how well a team’s offense and defense usually fare against the body of its opposition.

 

For the Panthers’ ADA, this is accomplished by subtracting the Panthers’ OAPS from the Panthers’ average points allowed. The AOA is calculated similarly; subtract the Panthers’ OAPA from the Panthers’ average points scored. This step has to be repeated for the 49ers as well. The values were as follows:

 

• Panthers ADA: -7.415
• Panthers AOA: 0.615
• 49ers ADA: -5.085
• 49ers AOA: 2.331

 

The ADA values show that the Panthers usually give up about a touchdown less to opponents than their opponents usually score, and the 49ers give up about 5 points less than their opponents usually score. Similarly, the AOA values show that the Panthers usually score less than a point more than their opponents usually give up, and the 49ers usually score alittle over 2 points more than their opponents usually give up.

 

The final step is to calculate the final scores based on each team’s ADA and AOA values. For both teams, two more equations must be calculated. The average-points-scored is added to the ADA of the opposing team, and the average-points-allowed is added to the AOA (also of the opposing team). This will give two final scores that must be averaged. The final step is outlined below followed by the prediction.

 

The Panthers score 22.9 points per game and allow 15.1 points per game. The 49ers score 25.4 points per game and allow 17 points per game so the equations are as follows:

 

     Panthers Points Scored:

     ~ 22.9+(-5.085­_{(ADA -Panthers)}) = 17.815

     ~ 17+(0.615_(AOA - _Panthers)) = 17.615

 

     49ers Points Scored:

     ~ 25.4+(-7.415_{(ADA - 49ers)}) = 17.985

     ~ 15.1+(2.331_(AOA - _49ers)) = 17.431

 

And then take the average (you can see where this is going) and round up, and voila! Final score is an 18 point tie. Since there are no ties in the playoffs, this obviously wouldn’t do. So I had to think of a way to settle the tie. The poster on C S R that came up with this [tedious] formula mentioned that it didn’t take into account homefield advantage. I figured that would be a great way to settle the tie. I just calculated the average final score of a 2013 Panthers home game and the average final score of a 2013 49ers away game. Carolina usually scores 14 points more than its opponent when playing at home, and San Fran usually scores 11 points more than its opponent when playing away. To apply these two facts to the original 18-18 prediction, I basically just set up the proportion equation

 

14/11 = X/18

 

X ≈ 23. So… the tie is settled. The Carolina Panthers (based solely on statistics) will win 23-18 this Sunday and advance to the NFC Championship Game!!!

 

Props to WesleyWalls85 on C S R for coming up with this formula!

[PrimeTyme]

Yep... makes perfect sense to me

[jayflip]

El Oh El at the filter for C S R

[UpstatePanther]

haha yea i noticed that when i re-read my post. haha

[sharkkiller]

an inferior site

Just wanted to see what the filter was.

[pstall]

what does your probability model say about hitting the score 18?

 

aha

[Jangler]

[Semaj]

I'll warn everyone off the bat, if you dont like reading or math, i wouldnt read this thread....

 

Okay… Got something I worked on for a few days here and there. Just thought I’d share. So the CatScratchReader has been running an article every week since the first 49er game doing an analysis and prediction for each game. Some of you may have read these articles before. The article basically used "Points For" / "Points Against" statistics to predict the final score of the games. I did some fooling with those stats and figured out the poster’s formula. I didn’t see another article for Sunday’s game so I decided to figure out the prediction myself. The original formula is complicated so bear with me, but it goes like this…

 

The formula is dependent on knowing a few statistics that (unfortunately) are not well known. These include the

• Opponents’ Average Points Allowed (OAPA)
• Opponents’ Average Points Scored (OAPS)

These stats are NOT the simple “Points For” and “Points Against” you might be used to. For the Panthers, this is the average of the average-points-scored/allowed by ALL their opponents. Same for the 49ers. I went through the trouble of gathering the average PF/PA of every team the Panthers and 49ers have played this year and used Excel to compute the averages:

 

• Panthers OAPA: 22.284
• Panthers OAPS: 22.515
• 49ers OAPA: 23.069
• 49ers OAPS: 22.084

The next step is to find the “Average Defensive Adjustment” (ADA) and “Average Offensive Adjustment” (AOA) for each team. The first value shows the difference between the average points a team allows and the average of the average-points-scored by all that team’s opponents. The second value is similar, showing the difference between the average points a team scores and the average-points-allowed by all their opponents. These values basically show how well a team’s offense and defense usually fare against the body of its opposition.

 

For the Panthers’ ADA, this is accomplished by subtracting the Panthers’ OAPS from the Panthers’ average points allowed. The AOA is calculated similarly; subtract the Panthers’ OAPA from the Panthers’ average points scored. This step has to be repeated for the 49ers as well. The values were as follows:

 

• Panthers ADA: -7.415
• Panthers AOA: 0.615
• 49ers ADA: -5.085
• 49ers AOA: 2.331

 

The ADA values show that the Panthers usually give up about a touchdown less to opponents than their opponents usually score, and the 49ers give up about 5 points less than their opponents usually score. Similarly, the AOA values show that the Panthers usually score less than a point more than their opponents usually give up, and the 49ers usually score alittle over 2 points more than their opponents usually give up.

 

The final step is to calculate the final scores based on each team’s ADA and AOA values. For both teams, two more equations must be calculated. The average-points-scored is added to the ADA of the opposing team, and the average-points-allowed is added to the AOA (also of the opposing team). This will give two final scores that must be averaged. The final step is outlined below followed by the prediction.

 

The Panthers score 22.9 points per game and allow 15.1 points per game. The 49ers score 25.4 points per game and allow 17 points per game so the equations are as follows:

 

     Panthers Points Scored:

     ~ 22.9+(-5.085­_{(ADA -Panthers)}) = 17.815

     ~ 17+(0.615_(AOA - _Panthers)) = 17.615

 

     49ers Points Scored:

     ~ 25.4+(-7.415_{(ADA - 49ers)}) = 17.985

     ~ 15.1+(2.331_(AOA - _49ers)) = 17.431

 

And then take the average (you can see where this is going) and round up, and voila! Final score is an 18 point tie. Since there are no ties in the playoffs, this obviously wouldn’t do. So I had to think of a way to settle the tie. The poster on C S R that came up with this [tedious] formula mentioned that it didn’t take into account homefield advantage. I figured that would be a great way to settle the tie. I just calculated the average final score of a 2013 Panthers home game and the average final score of a 2013 49ers away game. Carolina usually scores 14 points more than its opponent when playing at home, and San Fran usually scores 11 points more than its opponent when playing away. To apply these two facts to the original 18-18 prediction, I basically just set up the proportion equation

 

14/11 = X/18

 

X ≈ 23. So… the tie is settled. The Carolina Panthers (based solely on statistics) will win 23-18 this Sunday and advance to the NFC Championship Game!!!

 

Props to WesleyWalls85 on C S R for coming up with this formula!

I just skipped to the 2nd to last sentence.  Thanks for letting me know that we will win in a tight game.  Feels good!

[xerxes]

Three touchdowns and a safety vs six field goals. Actually sounds about right.

[cptx]

Three touchdowns and a safety vs six field goals. Actually sounds about right.

 

Or could be two touchdowns and three field goals for Carolina,  with two touchdowns, a failed PAT or 2pt conversion and two field goals for San Fran.

[UpstatePanther]

what does your probability model say about hitting the score 18?

 

aha

 

haha i didnt get into probability. this boggled my mind enough trying to figure out. 

[Rules&Regulations]

But you forgot to add 20 points for Crabtree.

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

[UpstatePanther]

But you forgot to add 20 points for Crabtree.

 

ah of course... how could i forget about Immanuel?...