Bay Area Writer: Kaepernick One-Read QB, Cam Actually Reads Defenses

[Semaj]

It goes much deeper than that.  I've overheard some unsubstantiated sources reveal that Dilfer much like Cohn, transmitted unwarranted advances towards young Colin

 

This would explain why they would appear to display a deep antipathy towards young Colin, when in actuality it is vindictiveness that drives their cattle.

Please, and I have heard that Cam was actually born on the planet Nibiru in the galaxy X.  He is an actual descendant of Superman.  Blood related and all.  

[Varking]

Where can I find stats broken down into specific categories like you have? I can't find a good site. 

I got these from ESPN but you can't just go to stats. You have to go to a specific players page and then you can click the splits tab.

 

Cams splits: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/13994/cam-newton

 

Colins: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/14001/colin-kaepernick

[TheRumGone]

Cam has the better numbers with lesser talent. 

 

Cam is 16th in completion %. Kaep is 31st.

Cam had 3 more passing touchdowns.

Cam has more passing yards.

Cam threw 5 more interceptions.

Cam fumbled once to Kaeps 3.

Cam was sacked 14 more times than Kaep.

Cam has more rushing yards.

Cam has more rushing touchdowns.

While 28 of Kaeps runs resulted in a first down, 45 of Cams runs got a first down.

 

Cam is less boom or bust. In wins, Cam has a rating of 94.2. In losses, 74.9. Kaep has a rating of 107.6 in wins. 45.9 in losses. So typically, Cam isn't god awful during a loss. Kaep completely poos the bed and is likely the reason for the loss. 

 

In the 4th quarter, within 7 points of the other team, Cam is a 81.0 compared to a 69.4 for Kaep. 

 

Cam is a 107.1 in the third quarter and 90.3 in the fourth. Kaep is a 105 in the third and then a 65 in the fourth. 

 

Kaep has 0 TD passes to the middle of the field. Maybe this is a problem reading a defense or trusting your playmakers over the crowded middle?

 

Kaep has 2 interceptions thrown within 10 yards of the opponents end zone. Not long tosses, but starting the play on the 10 or closer or scoring and turning the ball over. 

 

In terms of passing weapons, Smith is better than Crabtree but not by much. Davis and Boldin are way better than Greg and Brandon, though. 

 

While they are indeed both in their third year, Kaep is a full two years older than Newton already and should be further in is development. Cam also took over a franchise with many holes and took many lumps. 

 

By the way, Kaep plays his worse according to the stats when facing four down linemen this year. 5 TD passes and 5 INT with his lowest completion % and lowest rating of any formation. The Panthers will be in four down linemen most of the game.

 

Just food for thought on why I believe Cam is better, but a lot of it has to deal with him having less talent around him. Alex Smith did very well in your offense before Kaep did a year ago. Alex Smith would have gotten killed here. And I am an Alex Smith fan.

 

/thread

[SauceBoss]

Niner "fans" were throwing Caper-neck under the bus all season crying for Alex Smith back. The same will happen Sunday Night. 

[SF-Wald]

Because Cam had to do more for his team to win. In games where you are already losing, Kaep has 5 tds and 5 ints. Cam, in those same situations is 9-5. Cam has 1 rushing touchdown when the chips were down. None of Kaeps rushing TDs were when you were losing. Looking at the stats, he has a difficult time when the team is already down. 

These stats come from basically one or two bad games. I will admit that Colin got poo on in Seattle and three of his 8 picks come from that one game. I think the most important factor is that in December Kaep completed 60%+ of his passes with 7Tds and 1 pick. He is starting to play better these last 5 or so games. He lead game winning drives against GB and AZ when the game was on the line the last two weeks. He is starting to peak and hopefully it continues. 

[TheRumGone]

These stats come from basically one or two bad games. I will admit that Colin got poo on in Seattle and three of his 8 picks come from that one game. I think the most important factor is that in December Kaep completed 60%+ of his passes with 7Tds and 1 pick. He is starting to play better these last 5 or so games. He lead game winning drives against GB and AZ when the game was on the line the last two weeks. He is starting to peak and hopefully it continues. 

 

can we take out one or two of Cam's bad games too then?

[SF-Wald]

can we take out one or two of Cam's bad games too then?

He was harping on Kaep's bad stats in losses. Kaep playing terrible week 2/3 isn't a big factor now. 

[TheRumGone]

He was harping on Kaep's bad stats in losses. Kaep playing terrible week 2/3 isn't a big factor now. 

 

it was a comparison analysis.

 

take out Cam's 2nd half in zona and.....poo i think that's the only bad game Cam has had this year. (miami, new orleans don't really count).

 

i'm sorry but there is really nothing else to be said in this thread that hasn't already been said.

 

we've provided facts, stats, and some eye tests to prove this Cam>CK.

 

[KingKaepernick]

Cam has the better numbers with lesser talent. 

 

Cam is 16th in completion %. Kaep is 31st.

Cam had 3 more passing touchdowns.

Cam has more passing yards.

Cam threw 5 more interceptions.

Cam fumbled once to Kaeps 3.

Cam was sacked 14 more times than Kaep.

Cam has more rushing yards.

Cam has more rushing touchdowns.

While 28 of Kaeps runs resulted in a first down, 45 of Cams runs got a first down.

 

Cam is less boom or bust. In wins, Cam has a rating of 94.2. In losses, 74.9. Kaep has a rating of 107.6 in wins. 45.9 in losses. So typically, Cam isn't god awful during a loss. Kaep completely poos the bed and is likely the reason for the loss. 

 

In the 4th quarter, within 7 points of the other team, Cam is a 81.0 compared to a 69.4 for Kaep. 

 

Cam is a 107.1 in the third quarter and 90.3 in the fourth. Kaep is a 105 in the third and then a 65 in the fourth. 

 

Kaep has 0 TD passes to the middle of the field. Maybe this is a problem reading a defense or trusting your playmakers over the crowded middle?

 

Kaep has 2 interceptions thrown within 10 yards of the opponents end zone. Not long tosses, but starting the play on the 10 or closer or scoring and turning the ball over. 

 

In terms of passing weapons, Smith is better than Crabtree but not by much. Davis and Boldin are way better than Greg and Brandon, though. 

 

While they are indeed both in their third year, Kaep is a full two years older than Newton already and should be further in is development. Cam also took over a franchise with many holes and took many lumps. 

 

By the way, Kaep plays his worse according to the stats when facing four down linemen this year. 5 TD passes and 5 INT with his lowest completion % and lowest rating of any formation. The Panthers will be in four down linemen most of the game.

 

Just food for thought on why I believe Cam is better, but a lot of it has to deal with him having less talent around him. Alex Smith did very well in your offense before Kaep did a year ago. Alex Smith would have gotten killed here. And I am an Alex Smith fan.

 

And just to even the scale.

 

Kap plays in the toughest Division.

 

Unlike Cam, he did not get to beat up on the Bucs and Falcons twice.

 

You claim both are in their third year but fail to write that:

 

Cam, 48 starts

 

Kaepernick, 26 starts.

 

Almost double the experience yet, arguably less impressive results.

 

You claim great admiration of our talent. Yet Davis and Crabtree were drafted years before Kaepernick. And neither lived up to their potential until young Colin took the reigns.

 

In fact without Kap, Crabtree would be a bust! Fact.

 

Alex Smith did not have impressive or similar stats to Kap last season.

 

Kap unlike Alex and Cam,  does not care to checkdown. (Not kidding here)

 

Nor does he run any rb screens. (not kidding here either)

 

He also has 57 less passing attempts than Cam yet only 3 tds less while maintaining 5 fewer ints.

 

He also boasts a higher yards per passing attempt.

 

One can therefore conclude the longer your average pass the less likely it is to be caught, thus the reason why Kap's

completion percentage is lower than normal.

 

Finally you look at stats on espn. Lol.

 

Try advanced statistics at footballoutsiders.com

 

Need help?

 

Here you go mate, cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

[thunderraiden]

 

Fellas, it should be noted that this "Grant Cohn" character, is well known in San Francisco's "alternative lifestyles" community.  One anonymous source went as far as to say he had witnessed several different 49er facility managers flouting his unwarranted advances.  

 

As such, I and many 49er fans are convinced his articles/blogs are his reprisal towards our franchise.  

 

One should note, he favors the Panthers this weekend and coincidentally his "needs" have always been regarded as "resilient".

 

 

Dude, we're a Southern franchise and I can't believe I have to tell a San Fran fan to shut the fug up about talking about peoples sexual preferences. It has nothing to do with the conversation. People are people. What if your uncle, aunt, brother, sister, or cousin were bullied because of who they are? That type of attitude isn't welcome here.

[fieryprophet]

From my observations, this board seems to believe Colin is significantly worse than Cam. I don't believe this to be true. I think they are very even. I like Cam's completion percentage / more TDs, but colin throws less INTS/ INT % and has a better QB rating. 

People criticize Colin's progressions (which he needs a lot of help in), but he has started only 23 games compared to Cam's 48 --- that's more than a whole regular season's worth. Also, Colin has shown he can play well in the post season, home and away. Cam may prove this but it is an unknown. 

Ultimately, their stats are very similar and the players are very close. I don't think either is significantly better than the other. 

 

The mere fact you are acknowledging that Colin does in fact have issues with his progressions already puts you well above the typical Niners fan that I encounter, so I commend you for that.

 

As for the Cam vs. Colin comparison, there are element of Cam's game that he needs to improve on compared to Kaep's, but overall he's achieving more with lesser talent, not just in the slight statistical superiority, but in the method in which those stats are obtained. Unlike Kaepernick, Cam had to start from day one and take the worst offense in the NFL to a top 10 outfit purely based on him winging it while taking his lumps in real time. So his education in quarterbacking is grounded in the school of hard knocks, so to speak. Secondly, unlike the 49ers offense, our offense literally revolves around Cam. The threat of him running and his own rushing production keeps an otherwise shaky running game productive. His strong arm and rapidly improving offensive acumen helps throw receivers open that would otherwise struggle to be productive. His ability to singlehandedly take over a game at crucial times has helped us beat top tier teams all season. The pressure that rests on Cam's shoulder offensively has always been much larger than Kaepernick's, who is surrounded with talent and not asked to do anything outside the system the coaches have put in place. So while they may have similar skills and stats, they're not fundamentally similar in their development, as Cam is already at the point where he contributes to gameplanning, handles some of the playcalling on his own, designs routes for his receivers and can consistently audible the team to good plays while reading defensive coverages. Kaepernick isn't required to do any of these things at the level Cam is.

 

Now, there are things Cam has to continue to improve on, such as his footwork which can lead to overthrows, But even then he has the advantage of being able to utilize multiple arm platforms and a variety of throwing motions, whereas Kaepernick seems to only have one speed to his passes, and while he can be very accurate downfield he struggles to make touch throws elsewhere.

 

Then there's the rushing ability: Cam may be slightly slower at top speed, but he is both much more elusive (strange considering his larger size) with a wide variety of jukes and cuts, and more powerful, with the ability to flat out punish defenders. Kaepernick is more a straight line runner who can be cut down more easily.

 

Those are just some of the reasons that one could prefer Cam over Kaepernick. But I appreciate you not taking the typical 49er company line.

[fieryprophet]

And just to even the scale.

 

Kap plays in the toughest Division.

 

Unlike Cam, he did not get to beat up on the Bucs and Falcons twice.

 

You claim both are in their third year but fail to write that:

 

Cam, 48 starts

 

Kaepernick, 26 starts.

 

Almost double the experience yet, arguably less impressive results.

 

You claim great admiration of our talent. Yet Davis and Crabtree were drafted years before Kaepernick. And neither lived up to their potential until young Colin took the reigns.

 

In fact without Kap, Crabtree would be a bust! Fact.

 

Alex Smith did not have impressive or similar stats to Kap last season.

 

Kap unlike Alex and Cam,  does not care to checkdown. (Not kidding here)

 

Nor does he run any rb screens. (not kidding here either)

 

He also has 57 less passing attempts than Cam yet only 3 tds less while maintaining 5 fewer ints.

 

He also boasts a higher yards per passing attempt.

 

One can therefore conclude the longer your average pass the less likely it is to be caught, thus the reason why Kap's

completion percentage is lower than normal.

 

Finally you look at stats on espn. Lol.

 

Try advanced statistics at footballoutsiders.com

 

Need help?

 

Here you go mate, cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

I actually have a quarterback metric I created in 2011 that is superior to passer rating and ESPN's fluff "QBR" and it disagrees heavily with that implication. And considering it's based on six full years of NFL data and has a 85% correlation to victory, I'd think it is a better indicator of actual performance:

 

http://fieryprophet.com/qba/

 

This year, Cam placed 8th overall and Kaepernick was 13th. And before you say I weighted the stat to favor Cam, just know I started it before he was even drafted.

 

[Varking]

I want to respond, but when you state that Kaep does not check down, as if its some sort of intelligent thing to do, I can't tell if you are joking. And yes, our division was down, but you played the Texans and the Jaguars, and the Falcons, and the Bucks, and the Redskins. On your whole strength of schedule argument... both of our teams had 8 games against teams at 500 or better, and 8 games against teams lower than 500. Also, Vernon Davis best year was years ago, when he matched his toucdown total this season but he had more yards. Last season 4 of his 5 TDs were from Alex Smith within the first few games of the season. Kaep did not help him. He was also not a bust. Crabtree ...

 

625 yards as a rookie in 2009, 741 in 2010, 874 in 2011, 1105 last season. Explain how either one of these guys were a bust before Kaep?!! Crabtree was getting better every year. 

 

Cam also won the job his rookie year and then lit up the league in record breaking fashion. You can't hold that against him. You made the claim earlier in the tread that backup QBs are still being developed even if they aren't starting and listed examples. Both guys have been in the NFL for three years. Colin is two years older. Should Weeden be given more chances to make it work or does it matter that he was a rookie at like 29? Age makes a difference. 

 

 

[Varking]

I want to respond, but when you state that Kaep does not check down, as if its some sort of intelligent thing to do, I can't tell if you are joking. And yes, our division was down, but you played the Texans and the Jaguars, and the Falcons, and the Bucks, and the Redskins. On your whole strength of schedule argument... both of our teams had 8 games against teams at 500 or better, and 8 games against teams lower than 500. Also, Vernon Davis best year was years ago, when he matched his toucdown total this season but he had more yards. Last season 4 of his 5 TDs were from Alex Smith within the first few games of the season. Kaep did not help him. He was also not a bust. Crabtree ...

 

625 yards as a rookie in 2009, 741 in 2010, 874 in 2011, 1105 last season. Explain how either one of these guys were a bust before Kaep?!! Crabtree was getting better every year. 

 

Cam also won the job his rookie year and then lit up the league in record breaking fashion. You can't hold that against him. You made the claim earlier in the tread that backup QBs are still being developed even if they aren't starting and listed examples. Both guys have been in the NFL for three years. Colin is two years older. Should Weeden be given more chances to make it work or does it matter that he was a rookie at like 29? Age makes a difference.