Bay Area Writer: Kaepernick One-Read QB, Cam Actually Reads Defenses

[PantherDynasty]

Let's settle this. Book Smarts: Kaep > Cam. Football Smarts: Cam > Kaep. This message board is here for us to discuss football. Therefore, I'll take Cam.

[TheRumGone]

Manningham only played a few games and didn't recover from his ACL surgery so we put him on IR. Crab missed 2/3rd of the regular season, so Colin didnt have most of these weapons for most of the season.

However, is Cam "several tiers" above Kaep? What do you base this on... you say his stats are better, but that isn't obvious. Their stats are mostly identical. What makes Cam so much better than Colin? 

 

he's been asked to do more with less

 

kaep has been asked to do less with more.

 

developmentally Cam is a couple tiers above Colin. If you watch Cam's first full season compared to Colin's it's laughable.

 

when we got a team around Cam and he began to develop and go through his progressions, read defenses, make the right keys, audible to better plays we began seeing Cam as a better overall player. A savvy, heady player to go along with his physical skills.

 

The reason why Cam's stats have dipped this year is because we have no true #1. He is playing WITHIN the team's talent.  But Cam has shouldered the offensive load while Kaepernick has not.

 

All these reasons make Cam a couple tiers above Kaepernick. It's also a bit of an eye test thing. Doesn't mean I don't think he could get there cause i do. Should make for some epic showdowns in years to come between these two teams.

[ajax4132]

Manningham only played a few games and didn't recover from his ACL surgery so we put him on IR. Crab missed 2/3rd of the regular season, so Colin didnt have most of these weapons for most of the season.

However, is Cam "several tiers" above Kaep? What do you base this on... you say his stats are better, but that isn't obvious. Their stats are mostly identical. What makes Cam so much better than Colin? 

Do you not understand that admittedly you guys have a top 10 skills position squad. Kaep is throwing to Vernon Davis, Crabtree, Anquan boldin and has a strong o-line? That is stat inflation right there.

 

Cam is throwing to 34 yo #89 and though I love Greg, the man can fall down going through a turnstile

 

Yet Cam still better than him in almost every stat category

[ajax4132]

he's been asked to do more with less

 

kaep has been asked to do less with more.

 

developmentally Cam is a couple tiers about Colin. If you watch Cam's first full season compared to Colin's it's laughable.

 

when we got a team around Cam and he began to develop and go through his progressions, read defenses, make the right keys, audible to better plays we began seeing Cam as a better overall player. A savvy, heady player to go along with his physical skills.

 

The reason why Cam's stats have dipped this year is because we have no true #1. He is playing WITHIN the team's talent.  But Cam has shouldered the offensive load while Kaepernick has not.

 

All these reasons make Cam a couple tiers above Kaepernick. It's also a bit of an eye test thing. Doesn't mean I don't think he could get there cause i do. Should make for some epic showdowns in years to come between these two teams.

Kaep can get there, he has the physical talent but there is no doubt that Cam is much farther ahead than him as a qb

[SF-Wald]

he's been asked to do more with less

 

kaep has been asked to do less with more.

 

developmentally Cam is a couple tiers about Colin. If you watch Cam's first full season compared to Colin's it's laughable.

 

when we got a team around Cam and he began to develop and go through his progressions, read defenses, make the right keys, audible to better plays we began seeing Cam as a better overall player. A savvy, heady player to go along with his physical skills.

 

The reason why Cam's stats have dipped this year is because we have no true #1. He is playing WITHIN the team's talent.  But Cam has shouldered the offensive load while Kaepernick has not.

 

All these reasons make Cam a couple tiers above Kaepernick. It's also a bit of an eye test thing. Doesn't mean I don't think he could get there cause i do. Should make for some epic showdowns in years to come between these two teams.

Colin did lead the niners to the SB last year and won another playoff game on the road this year. That should count for something.

Also, Steve Smith, Greg Olson and Brandon LaFell aren't chop liver. Gross and Kalil are great players. 

It doesn't seem to me that Cam has done significantly more than Colin w/ a lot less. 

[mcdougal]

The analysis comes from Trent Dilfer.

 

Does he also have an axe to grind against the 49ers?

 

 

 

Dilfer has a HUGE axe to grind against the 49ers because they choose Kap over Smith. Go back and watch him have a mental breakdown when John named Kap the starter moving forward in 2012.

 

Dilfer nearly committed suicide on TV.

[TheRumGone]

Colin did lead the niners to the SB last year and won another playoff game on the road this year. That should count for something.

Also, Steve Smith, Greg Olson and Brandon LaFell aren't chop liver. Gross and Kalil are great players. 

It doesn't seem to me that Cam has done significantly more than Colin w/ a lot less. 

 

to the bolded parts: very, very debatable as to how much Colin led that team last year. and then go against a putrid GB team whose only hope at containing Kaep's legs was A.J. Hawk (no matthews) and almost lose. but hey a win is a win.

 

to the italicized parts: Steve Smith is old. I love the dude to death but he is not the same. he is like wes welker light. he should be in the slot. Greg Olson is great. but he's not vernon davis. and brandon lafell lol.

 

gross and kalil are damn good players but our starting RG was playing defensive tackle last year and our right guard is a UDFA from New Mexico and is one of the worst tackles in the league....gave up 4.5 sacks in one game. our left guard is 34 years old. He is solid.

 

If we changed offenses except QBs i think you would see a significant increase in yards, tds and completion percentage for Cam. that's why a lot of us here are excited about the future. We have a young core of defensive players that can be dominant for years. we start drafting weapons for Cam and a line to block for him and you are looking at one of the most balanced teams in the NFL.

 

and poo even with out that yet we are still pretty damn good.

[SF-Wald]

Do you not understand that admittedly you guys have a top 10 skills position squad. Kaep is throwing to Vernon Davis, Crabtree, Anquan boldin and has a strong o-line? That is stat inflation right there.

 

Cam is throwing to 34 yo #89 and though I love Greg, the man can fall down going through a turnstile

 

Yet Cam still better than him in almost every stat category

Is he really? Colin has a higher TD %, lower Int %, higher QB rating + Yard/attempt, + yard/completion. 

Cam threw 60 more passes, over 10% more than Colin. So looking at the raw numbers gives Cam an advantage. 

[SF-Wald]

to the bolded parts: very, very debatable as to how much Colin led that team last year. and then go against a putrid GB team whose only hope at containing Kaep's legs was A.J. Hawk (no matthews) and almost lose. but hey a win is a win.

 

to the italicized parts: Steve Smith is old. I love the dude to death but he is not the same. he is like wes welker light. he should be in the slot. Greg Olson is great. but he's not vernon davis. and brandon lafell lol.

 

gross and kalil are damn good players but our starting RG was playing defensive tackle last year and our right guard is a UDFA from New Mexico and is one of the worst tackles in the league....gave up 4.5 sacks in one game. our left guard is 34 years old. He is solid.

 

If we changed offenses except QBs i think you would see a significant increase in yards, tds and completion percentage for Cam. that's why a lot of us here are excited about the future. We have a young core of defensive players that can be dominant for years. we start drafting weapons for Cam and a line to block for him and you are looking at one of the most balanced teams in the NFL.

 

and poo even with out that yet we are still pretty damn good.

If Colin plays the same as Cam, does that mean the niners will win?

[TheRumGone]

If Colin plays the same as Cam, does that mean the niners will win?

 

more than likely yes.

 

 

[KingKaepernick]

Dilfer has a HUGE axe to grind against the 49ers because they choose Kap over Smith. Go back and watch him have a mental breakdown when John named Kap the starter moving forward in 2012.

 

Dilfer nearly committed suicide on TV.

 

It goes much deeper than that.  I've overheard some unsubstantiated sources reveal that Dilfer much like Cohn, transmitted unwarranted advances towards young Colin

 

This would explain why they would appear to display a deep antipathy towards young Colin, when in actuality it is vindictiveness that drives their cattle.

[Varking]

Manningham only played a few games and didn't recover from his ACL surgery so we put him on IR. Crab missed 2/3rd of the regular season, so Colin didnt have most of these weapons for most of the season.

However, is Cam "several tiers" above Kaep? What do you base this on... you say his stats are better, but that isn't obvious. Their stats are mostly identical. What makes Cam so much better than Colin? 

Cam has the better numbers with lesser talent. 

 

Cam is 16th in completion %. Kaep is 31st.

Cam had 3 more passing touchdowns.

Cam has more passing yards.

Cam threw 5 more interceptions.

Cam fumbled once to Kaeps 3.

Cam was sacked 14 more times than Kaep.

Cam has more rushing yards.

Cam has more rushing touchdowns.

While 28 of Kaeps runs resulted in a first down, 45 of Cams runs got a first down.

 

Cam is less boom or bust. In wins, Cam has a rating of 94.2. In losses, 74.9. Kaep has a rating of 107.6 in wins. 45.9 in losses. So typically, Cam isn't god awful during a loss. Kaep completely poos the bed and is likely the reason for the loss. 

 

In the 4th quarter, within 7 points of the other team, Cam is a 81.0 compared to a 69.4 for Kaep. 

 

Cam is a 107.1 in the third quarter and 90.3 in the fourth. Kaep is a 105 in the third and then a 65 in the fourth. 

 

Kaep has 0 TD passes to the middle of the field. Maybe this is a problem reading a defense or trusting your playmakers over the crowded middle?

 

Kaep has 2 interceptions thrown within 10 yards of the opponents end zone. Not long tosses, but starting the play on the 10 or closer or scoring and turning the ball over. 

 

In terms of passing weapons, Smith is better than Crabtree but not by much. Davis and Boldin are way better than Greg and Brandon, though. 

 

While they are indeed both in their third year, Kaep is a full two years older than Newton already and should be further in is development. Cam also took over a franchise with many holes and took many lumps. 

 

By the way, Kaep plays his worse according to the stats when facing four down linemen this year. 5 TD passes and 5 INT with his lowest completion % and lowest rating of any formation. The Panthers will be in four down linemen most of the game.

 

Just food for thought on why I believe Cam is better, but a lot of it has to deal with him having less talent around him. Alex Smith did very well in your offense before Kaep did a year ago. Alex Smith would have gotten killed here. And I am an Alex Smith fan.

[SF-Wald]

Cam has the better numbers with lesser talent. 

 

Cam is 16th in completion %. Kaep is 31st.

Cam had 3 more passing touchdowns.

Cam has more passing yards.

Cam threw 5 more interceptions.

Cam fumbled once to Kaeps 3.

Cam was sacked 14 more times than Kaep.

Cam has more rushing yards.

Cam has more rushing touchdowns.

While 28 of Kaeps runs resulted in a first down, 45 of Cams runs got a first down.

 

Cam is less boom or bust. In wins, Cam has a rating of 94.2. In losses, 74.9. Kaep has a rating of 107.6 in wins. 45.9 in losses. So typically, Cam isn't god awful during a loss. Kaep completely poos the bed and is likely the reason for the loss. 

 

In the 4th quarter, within 7 points of the other team, Cam is a 81.0 compared to a 69.4 for Kaep. 

 

Cam is a 107.1 in the third quarter and 90.3 in the fourth. Kaep is a 105 in the third and then a 65 in the fourth. 

 

Kaep has 0 TD passes to the middle of the field. Maybe this is a problem reading a defense or trusting your playmakers over the crowded middle?

 

Kaep has 2 interceptions thrown within 10 yards of the opponents end zone. Not long tosses, but starting the play on the 10 or closer or scoring and turning the ball over. 

 

In terms of passing weapons, Smith is better than Crabtree but not by much. Davis and Boldin are way better than Greg and Brandon, though. 

 

While they are indeed both in their third year, Kaep is a full two years older than Newton already and should be further in is development. Cam also took over a franchise with many holes and took many lumps. 

 

By the way, Kaep plays his worse according to the stats when facing four down linemen this year. 5 TD passes and 5 INT with his lowest completion % and lowest rating of any formation. The Panthers will be in four down linemen most of the game.

 

Just food for thought on why I believe Cam is better, but a lot of it has to deal with him having less talent around him. Alex Smith did very well in your offense before Kaep did a year ago. Alex Smith would have gotten killed here. And I am an Alex Smith fan.

Where can I find stats broken down into specific categories like you have? I can't find a good site. 

[Varking]

Is he really? Colin has a higher TD %, lower Int %, higher QB rating + Yard/attempt, + yard/completion. 

Cam threw 60 more passes, over 10% more than Colin. So looking at the raw numbers gives Cam an advantage. 

Because Cam had to do more for his team to win. In games where you are already losing, Kaep has 5 tds and 5 ints. Cam, in those same situations is 9-5. Cam has 1 rushing touchdown when the chips were down. None of Kaeps rushing TDs were when you were losing. Looking at the stats, he has a difficult time when the team is already down.