All possible scenarios between CAR, SF, ARI. (32 exactly) UPDATED.

[iBBB]

EDIT:

Even Better Odds !

I found a small error in Scenario 1 Case 2 (i didnt have us making playoffs if all three teams end up with 10-6 or 11-5 but we would)

10-6 record has us at 50.00%

11-5 record or 12-4 record, gives 100% to make the playoffs.

_________________________________________________

 

So I was bored this morning and figured out all possible scenarios between us, sanfran and arizona.

 

Before I give you the odds and percentages, let me explain how I got them.

Next week (week 16), there are 8 possible scenarios between the three teams.

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI loss

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR loss / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR win / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF win / ARI win

 

Then, for week 17, there are 4 more scenarios but I call them cases. 

The four cases are:

-CAR loss / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR win / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI win

keep in mind that SF plays ARI

 

With that in mind, each scenario of week 16 and 4 possible outcomes of week 17, gives us 32 possible scenarios.

 

Based on the tie-breaking between the three clubs, there are the following odds and percentages:

 

As of today:

CAR has 87.50% to make the playoffs

SF has 84.37% to make the playoffs

ARI has 28.12% to make the playoffs

 

With a W against the Saints week 16:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16:

CAR has 75.00% to make the playoffs

 

With a W against the Saints week 16 & a L against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16 & a L against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 50.00% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16 & a W against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

So you see, if we split next two games, we make the playoffs no matter what.

 

For any questions, study the attachements I provided.

 

I only have one question, how will we be seeded if all three clubs finish the season 11-5 ?

I have CAR, and SF advancing to playoffs in my report (because of the Conference Record), is that correct?

 

Thanks for reading!

 

Here is the spreadsheet in html format:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40564578/Scenarios.htm

 

Here is the spreadsheet in xlsx format:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40564578/Scenarios.xlsx

 

Pictures:

 

 

[Darknight]

FieryProphet, is that you?

[Salvo]

So...with all those numbers and statistics...all we need to do is just win baby?

 

 

[Jase]

I love a good nerd injection

[iBBB]

lol, took me like 4 hours to make that.

 

just wanted to give everyone a different perspective.

[SpeedOFLight]

Good research. My only question is if we lose one game then win against Atl and SF, AZ wins out. That will leave us out wouldn't it?

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

If all three finish at 11-5, I think the Panthers are the fifth seed and Niners are the sixth. Don't quote me on that.

[Chaos]

Good research. My only question is if we lose one game then win against Atl and SF, AZ wins out. That will leave us out wouldn't it?

Sf and az can't both win out. They still play each other.

[SpeedOFLight]

Sf and az can't both win out. They still play each other.

 

 

O ok My apologies. That totally slipped my mind. Thanks man

[PhillyB]

pie for effort

[iBBB]

Sf and az can't both win out. They still play each other.

 

Correct, and this gives us a great advantage. 

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

Just checked it on the ESPN and Yahoo playoff machines: a three way 11-5 tie has the Panthers at 5 and the Niners at 6.

[PantherWake]

Damn I thought I was a nerd lol but good work

[BuckNaked]

Good research. My only question is if we lose one game then win against Atl and SF, AZ wins out. That will leave us out wouldn't it?

 

Well AZ and SF play each other so both of them can't win both games.  If AZ wins out then SF has to loose and as long as we win one more we have the tiebreaker against them,  if SF wins and we win one more we automatically have a better record than AZ.