Explaining Carolina's chances to make the playoffs.

[jdpanther5]

At this point there's 5 teams left that could knock us out of the playoffs (well, 7, but 2 of those are going to win a division), and consider that it'd take two of them to pass us to knock us to 7th. Let's start from the bottom and go up.

 

10. Packers (6-6-1): Rodgers may be back soon, so they could obviously be a threat if we meet in the playoffs. However, the best they can finish is 9-6-1, while our worst is 9-7. Tiebreakers are unlikely to come into play since they have a tie. Basically, if we win one more game (or they lose one) we don't have to worry about them overtaking us.

 

9. Bears (6-6): They have a game vs. Dallas tonight. Assuming they win, their best possible finish would be 10-6. Also noteworthy is their terrible conference record (3-6), which would be the tiebreaker that would come into play vs. us (we've already clinched it over them). The best their conference record can be is 6-6, meanwhile our worst possible would be 7-5. Again, win one more game and this team is not a threat to us. Them losing tonight would also eliminate the threat, though they play Dallas who is a slightly greater impedence.

 

NOTE: In theory, both of the aforementioned teams could catch the Lions in the NFCN. Lions hold the H2H tiebreaker over Chicago and have clinched the division record tiebreaker over the Pack. So, for them to win the division, they'd have to finish with a better record than Detroit. If GB pulls it off it would mean that Detroit had finished 8-8 or worse, so that's of no issue to us; but if Chicago pulls it then Detroit would have been 9-7 or worse. If they finish 9-7, we lose out, and their final three games go: Loss to Baltimore, Win over NYG, Win over Minny, then they'd overtake us in the wild-card.

 

Basically, the moral of the story when it comes to this NFCN trio is: just beat the damn Jets, then we don't have to worry about this whole division until a potential 4 vs. 5 matchup.

 

8. Dallas (7-5); Philly (7-6): Both of these teams are still very much alive, and kinda worrisome. One will win the division, but the other could still be a WC team. They can both tie or surpass us, and they both currently have less conference losses (both have 2 to our 3). Though it's good that they still play each other Week 17. They could both win out through weeks 14-16, and then depending on their final matchup they'd finish 11-5 (Dallas) and 9-6 (Philly) or both 10-6, while we could be as low as 9-7. Even beating the Jets and finishing 10-6 wouldn't help much since it's not a conference game, and - in the above scenario - we'd still lose the conference record tiebreaker. Honestly, there's so many different scenarios with the NFCE WC team, tonight's game will start to clear things up a bit though. But again, even if one does overtake us, there'd have to be another WC to knock us out completely.

 

7. Arizona (8-5), 6. San Fran (9-4): First, it should be noted that, in the event of a three-way tie for the wild card, ties within the division are broken first. We can tie with both of these two teams at 9, 10, and 11 wins. Even if Arizona beats SF in Week 17 to even the season-series, SF would win the tiebreaker due to clinching a better division record. So, in any scenario where we tie BOTH these teams, we get the 5-seed.

 

It actually gets more complicated if we don't tie. This has been talked about ad nauseam in this thread, so I won't dive into these two teams much more. But as has been said, falling behind the Niners and tying with the Cards seems like the most likely scenario where we fall out. Though, it's still not a great one. For SF to overtake us it likely means they beat Arizona Week 17, and the Cards also have to face the Hawks the week prior. And the Titans next week isn't exactly an easy matchup for them either. Tough stretch ahead for Arizona is obviously good for us.

 

The bottom line is: 2 out of 3 wins and we're in.

[CharlottePanther]

Might not just be Carolina missing the playoffs at 10-6. Dallas, Philadelphia, Arizona, San Francisco, and Carolina could all finish 10-6 and in that scenario, only three out of those 5 would make the playoffs. Two teams would be sitting at home after finishing 10-6.

And you see, thats a load of crap. I will turn my time and energy to the Charlotte Hornets. Say what you will about the NBA playoff structure, but it atleast doesnt screw over winning teams out of the playoffs

[LinvilleGorge]

if i had something to do with it, it was because i played madden last week for the first time since the week before the arizona game.

 

Steps to take:

1. Eject Madden disc

2. Walk to door

3. Sling Madden disc like a frisbee as far as you can

[LinvilleGorge]

And you see, thats a load of crap. I will turn my time and energy to the Charlotte Hornets. Say what you will about the NBA playoff structure, but it atleast doesnt screw over winning teams out of the playoffs

 

That's probably exactly what is going to happen this year.  The west is so far superior to the east that it isn't even funny.

[jdpanther5]

And you see, thats a load of crap. I will turn my time and energy to the Charlotte Hornets. Say what you will about the NBA playoff structure, but it atleast doesnt screw over winning teams out of the playoffs

 

NBA division winners are guaranteed a top 4 seed in their conference, just like in the NFL. That's why the 10-12 Celtics are currently 4th in the east. 

[DecrypticShadow]

Yep, but my post was all about what if Carolina wins two out of their last three. If they lose two out of their last three, all bets are off.

Not necessarily... We could beat the Jets this week and lose our next 2 conference games and still make it in with the Eagles finishing 11-5 after beating Dallas in week 17..

[Happy Panther]

 

 

The bottom line is: 2 out of 3 wins and we're in.

 

Great analysis

[hepcat]

Not necessarily... We could beat the Jets this week and lose our next 2 conference games and still make it in with the Eagles finishing 11-5 after beating Dallas in week 17..

 

 

 

AND Arizona losing two out of their final 3....

[jdpanther5]

^ Very possible, I'd say probable.

 

Titans

Seahawks

49ers

[KaseKlosed]

[whodatmedat]

Falcons are going to play the last game like it is the Super Bowl. Tony G's last game of his career and they are going to be determined not to let him go out on a losing note. Not saying they will win but they are going to be mire motivated than ever. 

 

[footballisasport]

Most of you are probably already aware of the playoff scenarios for Carolina but allow me to help explain them a little better.  There are realistically three teams competing for two wild card spots in the NFC - Arizona, San Francisco, and Carolina.  Currently Carolina and San Francisco are 9-4, and Arizona is 8-5.  Carolina holds the tiebreaker over San Francisco because of a head-to-head win.  San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over Arizona, and Arizona holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.  After playing with the Playoff Machine for a little bit, I better understand Carolina's chances to make the playoffs.  http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If Carolina, San Francisco and Arizona all finish with the same record, Carolina would be the #5 seed, San Francisco would be the #6 seed, and Arizona would miss the playoffs.  If Carolina and Arizona end up with the same record, but San Francisco finishes with a better record than both, Carolina misses the playoffs.  This holds true through the final three weeks.  

 

Final opponents for all three teams:

 

Carolina:  NYJ, NO, @ATL

Arizona: @TEN, @SEA, SF

San Francisco: @TB, ATL, @ARI

 

Because Arizona and San Francisco play each other in Week 17, Carolina can afford one more loss, finish 11-5, and still be assured a playoff spot.  If San Francisco wins, it would drop Arizona to 10-6 if they won their other two remaining games, and they'd finish below Carolina.  If Arizona wins, it would drop San Francisco to 11-5 if they won their other two remaining games.  Like I said earlier, even if Arizona wins out and Carolina loses one, they'd all finish 11-5 and Carolina would win the tiebreaker.  Everything goes to hell if Carolina drops two of their remaining three games and Arizona and San Francisco both win their next two games.  Needless to say, next weeks game against the Jets is a must-win.

 

TL;DR - Carolina still has a great chance to make the playoffs even if they lose one more game.  But if they lose two more...all bets are off.

 

EDIT:  Okay so for those asking if San Francisco and Arizona both lose in Week 15, will Carolina make the playoffs, the answer is no.  Carolina still has a chance to finish 10-6 or even 9-7 regardless of what Arizona and San Francisco do in Week 15.  Also, it should be noted, that if Dallas or Philadelphia finish at 10-6, they would own the tiebreaker over Carolina because of conference record.  There are a lot of scenarios where Carolina misses out of the playoffs if they finish at 10-6 to either Arizona, Philadelphia, or Dallas.  There are even scenarios where Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco, Dallas, and Philly all finish 10-6.  Like I said before, if Carolina, Arizona and San Fran all finish with the same record, Carolina wins the tiebreaker.  It seems Carolina owns the tiebreaker over Chicago and Detroit.  All in all, to be guaranteed a playoff spot, Carolina needs to win two of their next three.  After that they get into the muddle mess of tiebreakers and you don't want to be there.  This post to show how Carolina would make the playoffs if they only lost one more game, and who their main competition would be if they only lost one more game.  If they lose two more games, like I said, all bets are off.

 

TL;DR AGAIN: It gets REALLY complicated if the Panthers lose two of their last three and finish 10-6.  But finish 11-5 and they are guaranteed a spot.  There is not a scenario that I found where Carolina misses the playoffs if they get to 11 wins. 

 

I don't believe this team needs to leave anything to chance. They need to go handle their business. I still feel the Panthers will split the Saints games, so the next game should be theirs.

[MojoHH]

If we go 10-6 and miss the playoffs, im finding a new passion. That will just show the NFL is really about luck than it is skill and voodoo type tiebreakers. So a 8-8 team in the AFC can get in but a 10-6 team cant?! To hell with that poo, I am as serious as I can be. If we miss out at 10-6 I will not spend another dime on anything NFL related or give one second of viewing to any NFL programming until they expand the playoffs to just one more team per conference. 10-6 should guarantee you a playoff spot period.

That happened to the Bears last year, finished 10-6 and still missed the playoffs. Totally agree it's weird having to watch the playoffs from the outside after such a good season.

[hepcat]

After exploring a number of scenarios, it is GREATLY in the best interest for the Panthers if Chicago wins tonight.  GO BEARS

 

Also, the Bears/Eagles game Week 16 plays a huge role in tiebreakers if Carolina ends up 10-6.  Bears need to win that one too.  For some reason, the Bears are playing a pivotal role in the Panthers tiebreakers.  Probably has to do with conference record and record against common opponents...it's so complicated how can anyone truly know all the rules.