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Explaining Carolina's chances to make the playoffs.

hepcat

By hepcat,
in Carolina Panthers

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

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EDIT:  Clinching Scenarios for Week 15

 

CAROLINA can clinch a playoff berth with:

  1. CAR win + ARI loss + SF loss + DAL loss or tie
  2. CAR win + ARI loss + SF loss + PHI loss or tie

 

Most of you are probably already aware of the playoff scenarios for Carolina but allow me to help explain them a little better.  There are realistically three teams competing for two wild card spots in the NFC - Arizona, San Francisco, and Carolina.  Currently Carolina and San Francisco are 9-4, and Arizona is 8-5.  Carolina holds the tiebreaker over San Francisco because of a head-to-head win.  San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over Arizona, and Arizona holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.  After playing with the Playoff Machine for a little bit, I better understand Carolina's chances to make the playoffs.  http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

If Carolina, San Francisco and Arizona all finish with the same record, Carolina would be the #5 seed, San Francisco would be the #6 seed, and Arizona would miss the playoffs.  If Carolina and Arizona end up with the same record, but San Francisco finishes with a better record than both, Carolina misses the playoffs.  This holds true through the final three weeks.  

 

Final opponents for all three teams:

 

Carolina:  NYJ, NO, @ATL

Arizona: @TEN, @SEA, SF

San Francisco: @TB, ATL, @ARI

 

Because Arizona and San Francisco play each other in Week 17, Carolina can afford one more loss, finish 11-5, and still be assured a playoff spot.  If San Francisco wins, it would drop Arizona to 10-6 if they won their other two remaining games, and they'd finish below Carolina.  If Arizona wins, it would drop San Francisco to 11-5 if they won their other two remaining games.  Like I said earlier, even if Arizona wins out and Carolina loses one, they'd all finish 11-5 and Carolina would win the tiebreaker.  Everything goes to hell if Carolina drops two of their remaining three games and Arizona and San Francisco both win their next two games.  Needless to say, next weeks game against the Jets is a must-win.

 

TL;DR - Carolina still has a great chance to make the playoffs even if they lose one more game.  But if they lose two more...all bets are off.

 

EDIT:  Okay so for those asking if San Francisco and Arizona both lose in Week 15, will Carolina make the playoffs, the answer is no.  Carolina still has a chance to finish 10-6 or even 9-7 regardless of what Arizona and San Francisco do in Week 15.  Also, it should be noted, that if Dallas or Philadelphia finish at 10-6, they would own the tiebreaker over Carolina because of conference record.  There are a lot of scenarios where Carolina misses out of the playoffs if they finish at 10-6 to either Arizona, Philadelphia, or Dallas.  There are even scenarios where Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco, Dallas, and Philly all finish 10-6.  Like I said before, if Carolina, Arizona and San Fran all finish with the same record, Carolina wins the tiebreaker.  It seems Carolina owns the tiebreaker over Chicago and Detroit.  All in all, to be guaranteed a playoff spot, Carolina needs to win two of their next three.  After that they get into the muddle mess of tiebreakers and you don't want to be there.  This post to show how Carolina would make the playoffs if they only lost one more game, and who their main competition would be if they only lost one more game.  If they lose two more games, like I said, all bets are off.

 

TL;DR AGAIN: It gets REALLY complicated if the Panthers lose two of their last three and finish 10-6.  But finish 11-5 and they are guaranteed a spot.  There is not a scenario that I found where Carolina misses the playoffs if they get to 11 wins. 

 

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Mother Grabber Grand Master

Mother Grabber

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we will get to 11 with wins over the Jets and Falcons. that's enough to get in. The N and E divisions can't get two teams to 11, and both the 9ers and Cards can't. So we're in even if we get swept by NO. Of course that would royally suck dog balls, but at least we'll make the playoffs and take another huge step forward towards building the dynasty team.

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

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phew, nice to see Seattle on Arizona's schedule.

 

That is nice, but keep in mind Arizona still owns the tiebreaker over Carolina.  If both teams finish 10-6 (Carolina drops two and Arizona loses to Seattle but wins their other two games) and San Francisco wins two out of three, Carolina would miss the playoffs.  That Arizona-San Francisco game in Week 17 could be a very pivotal game for Carolina.  Or it might not matter at all.

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

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@NYJ - looked a lot easier a week ago. Hopefully Geno throws up another stinker for us.

NO - it would be extremely nice to get revenge and go into playoffs letting them know we can beat them

@ATL - isn't a walk in the park either.. they would love to play spoiler for us

 

Honestly I'm hoping Carolina can win their next two and be guaranteed a playoff spot...but who knows with this team.  Losing to the Jets at home would be very typical of the Panthers.

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Cary Kollins Experienced

Cary Kollins

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That is nice, but keep in mind Arizona still owns the tiebreaker over Carolina.  If both teams finish 10-6 (Carolina drops two and Arizona loses to Seattle but wins their other two games) and San Francisco wins two out of three, Carolina would miss the playoffs.  That Arizona-San Francisco game in Week 17 could be a very pivotal game for Carolina.  Or it might not matter at all.

 

 

I'm thinking ARI will lose to SEA and SF.

 

If that happens, we could lose the next 2 out of 3 and still make the playoffs it appears. 

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DecrypticShadow Newbie

DecrypticShadow

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@NYJ - looked a lot easier a week ago. Hopefully Geno throws up another stinker for us.

NO - it would be extremely nice to get revenge and go into playoffs letting them know we can beat them

@ATL - isn't a walk in the park either.. they would love to play spoiler for us

If we can manage to win our next two and clinch the #5 seed, it would be nice to play ATL with the outcome being meaningless and possibly allow Anderson to get some reps before the playoffs...

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

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If we can manage to win our next two and clinch the #5 seed, it would be nice to play ATL with the outcome being meaningless and possibly allow Anderson to get some reps before the playoffs...

 

Well, even if Carolina wins their next two games, San Francisco could also win their next two games going into Week 17.  Carolina would still likely make the playoffs, but that game would be the difference in the #5 and #6.

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