San Francisco Newpaper: Cam Is Better Than Kaepernick

[fieryprophet]

I just went back an re-watched the entire SF/Jags game.

 

There is no evidence of a special only two read offense.

 

There was maybe one max protect two receiver route, there were a couple of play action rollouts that used only one side of the field but still had multiple progressions.  And there was a goal line TD to Davis on play action.

 

Every other passing play had 3 or more receivers (although the vast majority had at least 4) and had multiple progressions.

 

I don't know where the "He only has one or two reads" stuff is coming from

 

I just wanted to add that Jacksonville is terrible.  Just awful.  That is not meant to diminish the 49ers win.  Just a point of fact.  I wish we played them.  I will be shocked if they win a game this year.  Limited talent, and maybe worse coaching. 

 

Like I said, half read quarterback. They use multiple receivers, but most end up being decoys.

 

[teeray]

I don't think I ever said there were only ever 2 reads at all times. I think I was saying that the read is typically made pre-snap. I would so go look at how often they have 2 or 3 WRs on the field. Not often. The WRs suck. They'll actually throw more to the FB than to the #2 WR. You will also see that the WRs in those formations are very often not actually WRs.

 

As for the Jags....yes, they are. LOL. Horrible. It was embarrassing to give up 10 points.

 

Nearly every offense in the NFL tries to force a team to declare pre-snap outside of maybe Philly and Chip Kelly's offense.  Even fast paced offenses like NE and Den make teams declare before the snap.  You don't have to wind down the clock to make a defense show their hand.

 

But even if you know whether they are in man or zone, that doesn't mean you automatically know where the ball is going to go after the snap.  you may have a good idea, but if someone jumps a route, or has good coverage, or you are fooled, you still have to go through your progressions.  And that is why, Kaep is having some problems.  If he is fooled or his first two reads aren't open he usually panics.  Fortunately for you guys (like Cam) when he panics he can still make plays with his feet which makes him dangerous.

 

But again, Harbaugh is a good offensive mind, and I agree he puts QBs in good opportunities to be successful based on what that QB is good at.  That is a tribute to him as a coach.

 

My point is, this offense is not some unique masterful offense that Harbaugh invented.  It is from the core concepts of a typical ground and pound west coast offense.  He just does it better than most

 

Edit:  And I gave you pie because of your Jags comment.  They truly do suck  :lol:

[panthers55]

...uh...ok.

 

So even tho teams KNOW the 49ers will run the ball more than any other team in the NFL and will sell out to stop it, they STILL can't do it and still allow 183 yards per game over the last 5.

 

This is nothing more than another statistical anomaly that stems from the huge leads they have enjoyed. You are not entirely incorrect...but the fact that they have had those leads also contributes to their passing statistics. You don't get it both ways.  :)  Also, they BUILT a number of those leads by running the ball,

Again being a persistent running team because your passing game is not good doesn't make you a great running team. If you gain 180 yards on 40 carries it still averages to 4.5 yards a carry.  Did you mention that you also allowed a lot of yards to good running teams.  Against Seattle it was 172 yards, Houston 132, Indy 184. In fact in both of your losses you were outgained in rushing for the game. 

 

You gain 150 yards but allow 104 which is a difference of +46.  We average 130 but give up only 79 for a difference of +51.  And we all know our passing game is better. The problem for the 49ers is that you have faced good running teams and some with good running defenses. What you haven't faced is a top team both rushing the ball and defending the run.

[Marvin49]

Nearly every offense in the NFL tries to force a team to declare pre-snap outside of maybe Philly and Chip Kelly's offense.  Even fast paced offenses like NE and Den make teams declare before the snap.  You don't have to wind down the clock to make a defense show their hand.

 

But even if you know whether they are in man or zone, that doesn't mean you automatically know where the ball is going to go after the snap.  you may have a good idea, but if someone jumps a route, or has good coverage, or you are fooled, you still have to go through your progressions.  And that is why, Kaep is having some problems.  If he is fooled or his first two reads aren't open he usually panics.  Fortunately for you guys (like Cam) when he panics he can still make plays with his feet which makes him dangerous.

 

But again, Harbaugh is a good offensive mind, and I agree he puts QBs in good opportunities to be successful based on what that QB is good at.  That is a tribute to him as a coach.

 

My point is, this offense is not some unique masterful offense that Harbaugh invented.  It is from the core concepts of a typical ground and pound west coast offense.

 

Edit:  And I gave you pie because of your Jags comment.  They truly do suck  :lol:

 

Well of course the QB still needs to make a read. I was only ever trying to say that they try to simplify the read. Less grey area.

 

I disagree on why Kap has "stuggled" tho. He only did so in 2 games and one was in Seattle with the best secondary in the NFL and the loudest stadium in the NFL. He had some serious issues there. He got fooled on just such a play as you describe on the INT near the endzone...fooled by the coverage.

 

I think the bigger issue is a lack of anyone outside of his TE to be able to beat press man coverage....and that TE didn't play vs the Colts. Look, I like Boldin a lot, but I don't have any illusions about what he is now. He needs to be schemed to get open. He can't create separation on his own. This results in Kap throwing him a lot of passes with a defender all over the guy...which is Boldins strength...catching the ball even when covered. That results in Kap throwing him the ball too often when he;s blanketed because he has no confidence that another guy will make a play for him.

 

Look at the Niners receiving stats. Boldin and Vernon are both over 500 yards. Nobody else has 200. Vernon has 7 of Kaps 9 TDs. Kaps qb rating when passing to Boldin and Vernon are over 100. When passing to Kyle Williams, the teams #2 WR? 20.

 

They need Manningham and Crab back somewhere close to full strength. They don't need to be all pro...they just need to be serviceable. That is something nobody other than Boldin can call themselves right now.

[Marvin49]

Again being a persistent running team because your passing game is not good doesn't make you a great running team. If you gain 180 yards on 40 carries it still averages to 4.5 yards a carry.  Did you mention that you also allowed a lot of yards to good running teams.  Against Seattle it was 172 yards, Houston 132, Indy 184. In fact in both of your losses you were outgained in rushing for the game. 

 

You gain 150 yards but allow 104 which is a difference of +46.  We average 130 but give up only 79 for a difference of +51.  And we all know our passing game is better. The problem for the 49ers is that you have faced good running teams and some with good running defenses. What you haven't faced is a top team both rushing the ball and defending the run.

 

...and neither have you.

 

I disagree with the entire premise of why you don't think the Niners are a good running team, but that's OK. I'd submit that if a team knows you are going to run the ball 40 times, do everything they can to stop it and you still average 4.5 yards per carry you are doing pretty damn well.

 

If you really wanna look at run averages tho then you might wanna look at th average per rush against. Its only 3.9. The Panthers are at 3.7 and the Niners have missed 2 of their starting LBs for a good chunk of the season. Willis was still gimpy before the bye. The majir difference in those total rush yardage stats is exactly what you were talking about before...# of rushes against. My bet is that teams gave up running when they had little success early.

 

The Niners have also sacrificed run D by refusing to bring up a safety and that has resulted in FAR better pass D. That isn't really evidenced in the stats tho because late prevent defenses have skewed the numbers. Trust me on this tho...a healthy Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, Glenn  Dorsey, Aldon Smith, Ahmed Brooks, Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are adept at stopping the run.

 

Finally...stop looking at the statsheet. It's really misleading. The numbers are all topsy turvey due to huge leads. I'm sure the same is true of the Panthers.

[teeray]

Well of course the QB still needs to make a read. I was only ever trying to say that they try to simplify the read. Less grey area.

 

I disagree on why Kap has "stuggled" tho. He only did so in 2 games and one was in Seattle with the best secondary in the NFL and the loudest stadium in the NFL. He had some serious issues there. He got fooled on just such a play as you describe on the INT near the endzone...fooled by the coverage.

 

I think the bigger issue is a lack of anyone outside of his TE to be able to beat press man coverage....and that TE didn't play vs the Colts. Look, I like Boldin a lot, but I don't have any illusions about what he is now. He needs to be schemed to get open. He can't create separation on his own. This results in Kap throwing him a lot of passes with a defender all over the guy...which is Boldins strength...catching the ball even when covered. That results in Kap throwing him the ball too often when he;s blanketed because he has no confidence that another guy will make a play for him.

 

Look at the Niners receiving stats. Boldin and Vernon are both over 500 yards. Nobody else has 200. Vernon has 7 of Kaps 9 TDs. Kaps qb rating when passing to Boldin and Vernon are over 100. When passing to Kyle Williams, the teams #2 WR? 20.

 

They need Manningham and Crab back somewhere close to full strength. They don't need to be all pro...they just need to be serviceable. That is something nobody other than Boldin can call themselves right now.

 

I meant to say something more along the lines of "at times he has struggled".  He is a good QB no doubt.  If you were here before the season started I said often that I thought Cam and Kaep have the most upside of all the young gun QBs and would take those two in a draft before any of the others.

 

I may be not as high on Kaep right now as I was at the beginning of the season, but I still think he is pretty damn good and has the potential to be awesome.

[panthers55]

...and neither have you.

 

I disagree with the entire premise of why you don't think the Niners are a good running team, but that's OK. I'd submit that if a team knows you are going to run the ball 40 times, do everything they can to stop it and you still average 4.5 yards per carry you are doing pretty damn well.

 

If you really wanna look at run averages tho then you might wanna look at th average per rush against. Its only 3.9. The Panthers are at 3.7 and the Niners have missed 2 of their starting LBs for a good chunk of the season. Willis was still gimpy before the bye. The majir difference in those total rush yardage stats is exactly what you were talking about before...# of rushes against. My bet is that teams gave up running when they had little success early.

 

The Niners have also sacrificed run D by refusing to bring up a safety and that has resulted in FAR better pass D. That isn't really evidenced in the stats tho because late prevent defenses have skewed the numbers. Trust me on this tho...a healthy Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, Glenn  Dorsey, Aldon Smith, Ahmed Brooks, Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis are adept at stopping the run.

 

Finally...stop looking at the statsheet. It's really misleading. The numbers are all topsy turvey due to huge leads. I'm sure the same is true of the Panthers.

The difference is that we don't have to rush well to win.  We  are a balanced attack and can run or pass.  The 49ers struggle if they don't run.  And you won't get 150 yards against us.  We will stop the run as we have all year and make Kap beat us with his arm.  We will pressure him where his passer rater is around 55.  On the other hand if you do the same thing to Cam his passer rating is well over a 100 when pressured.  And that will be the difference.

 

Your passing defense is no better than ours.  Yet our run defense is better. Plus our passing game is better as are our special teams.  Truth is that your biggest plus is home field advantage. Otherwise we match up very well against the 49ers. 

[Rook35200]

I suppose that's fair.

 

Kap was RAW coming out of college. He is improving as a progression passer, but the system he plays in really does protect him in that regard.

 

The kid is bright tho (4.0 GPA, scored 38 on wonderlick) so I'm pretty sure he'll figure it out. I just hope he doesn't get hurt running around too much before he does.

 

 

I Agree

[Marc Anthony]

'Ol Kap a gonna be a runnin for his life come Sunday...that is all...

[Pox 08]

As if that is breaking news.    Cam is much better than Kap.      We all know the 9ers wish to god they had the chance to draft Cam.

[PanthersAlv]

According to this post, Kap is progressing very well and going through his reads.

Title : "Kaep Going through progressions"

Link: http://forums.49ers.com/showthread.php?149899-Kaep-Going-through-progressions

 

Probably my favorite 2 quotes of this OP's post are these... (bolded)
 

 

What we're going to look at is a first down pass, which immediately followed a deep ball to Vernon down the sideline. It was the more "highlight reel" play, where Kaepernick looks off a safety, and fires a beautiful strike. We've all come to expect that from Kaep though, as in my opinion, he is a near-elite passer. In any case, back to the play at hand. It's a first down pass. A checkdown here is acceptable, and preferred. It's a 6-yard pass which results in 3 yards after the catch, because it's both an accurate, well placed pass, and because Bruce Miller is sick.

 

And this one:

 

 

But it's impressive. Getting to your 4th read against a complex man-zone scheme, where the DBs have options based on how the play evolves. Plays like this are the reason we've been sustaining drives. It's not easy to go through progressions, and he does it fast. He gets the ball out of his hands in under 3 seconds. It's also worth noting that teams are playing the pass against us even in run formations. We see 3 deep coverage with only 2 guys out wide. That's nuts. Talk about a QB having an affect on how successful your running game is...

What say you all?

[CRA]

...uh...ok.

So even tho teams KNOW the 49ers will run the ball more than any other team in the NFL and will sell out to stop it, they STILL can't do it and still allow 183 yards per game over the last 5.

This is nothing more than another statistical anomaly that stems from the huge leads they have enjoyed. You are not entirely incorrect...but the fact that they have had those leads also contributes to their passing statistics. You don't get it both ways. :) Also, they BUILT a number of those leads by running the ball,

We won't sell out to stop it