ESPN Upset Watch: Panthers over 49ers

[UNCrules2187]

Insider piece, so I'll only quote a portion: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9938510/nfl-upset-watch-nfl-week-10

 

Well, they can start by continuing to play great defense. That's the biggest difference between these teams, where we rank the Panthers third and the 49ers a surprisingly mediocre 14th. Although their anonymous secondary has played better than anyone might have expected, the real strength of the Panthers' defense is their front seven, starring Defensive Player of the Year candidate Luke Kuechly, pass rushers Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson, and the rookie defensive tackle tandem of Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short.

 

That front seven presents a tough battle for the 49ers' running backs. We think of the 49ers as a strong running team, and they do in fact rank eighth in the league in run offense DVOA. But that ranking is built on good Colin Kaepernick runs and a lot of yardage gained in the open field. On standard running plays, the offensive line hasn't blocked anywhere near as well as it did the last couple seasons. San Francisco ranks 28th in our Adjusted Line Yards metric after leading the league in 2012. (ALY is explained here.) The Carolina defense ranks fifth in the same metric this year, and the Panthers have stuffed opposing running backs for a loss or no gain on 25 percent of carries, fourth in the NFL.

 

Also notes that the 49ers are 3rd in DVOA vs #1 WRs and 5th vs TEs, so Cam will need to find LaFell/Ginn and the RBs more as the 49ers are weaker against #2/slot WRs and RBs (20th or worse in DVOA against these positions).  I think Ginn is going to have a big game personally.

 

[49erVisitor]

 

Insider piece, so I'll only quote a portion: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9938510/nfl-upset-watch-nfl-week-10

 

 

 

Also notes that the 49ers are 3rd in DVOA vs #1 WRs and 5th vs TEs, so Cam will need to find LaFell/Ginn and the RBs more as the 49ers are weaker against #2/slot WRs and RBs (20th or worse in DVOA against these positions).  I think Ginn is going to have a big game personally.

 

 

Ginn is playing slot for you guys? If so he will matched up on Carlos Rogers who does pretty well in the slot. Should be a good matchup to keep your eyes on.

[CRA]

Ginn is playing slot for you guys? If so he will matched up on Carlos Rogers who does pretty well in the slot. Should be a good matchup to keep your eyes on.

Steve Smith generally moves to slot when Ginn comes on the field

[fieryprophet]

This is the most relevant piece of information:

 

That front seven presents a tough battle for the 49ers' running backs. We think of the 49ers as a strong running team, and they do in fact rank eighth in the league in run offense DVOA. But that ranking is built on good Colin Kaepernick runs and a lot of yardage gained in the open field. On standard running plays, the offensive line hasn't blocked anywhere near as well as it did the last couple seasons. San Francisco ranks 28th in our Adjusted Line Yards metric after leading the league in 2012. (ALY is explained here.) The Carolina defense ranks fifth in the same metric this year, and the Panthers have stuffed opposing running backs for a loss or no gain on 25 percent of carries, fourth in the NFL.

 

Prepare your anus, San Fran. . .not that you're unfamiliar with the phrase. . .

[thunderraiden]

 

Insider piece, so I'll only quote a portion: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9938510/nfl-upset-watch-nfl-week-10

 

 

 

Also notes that the 49ers are 3rd in DVOA vs #1 WRs and 5th vs TEs, so Cam will need to find LaFell/Ginn and the RBs more as the 49ers are weaker against #2/slot WRs and RBs (20th or worse in DVOA against these positions).  I think Ginn is going to have a big game personally.

 

 

You cant quote the entire part of the article as it relates to the Panthers. Its still considered a preview since they get sales off people that want to know about the whole NFL, not just one team.

[CarolinaNCSU]

Just imagine if we were to somehow shut them down and win convincingly. Ze Huddlez would explode. 

[UNCrules2187]

You cant quote the entire part of the article as it relates to the Panthers. Its still considered a preview since they get sales off people that want to know about the whole NFL, not just one team.

 

Not sure exactly what you're saying here - there's much more to the article than what I quoted.

[teeray]

Not

An

Upset

[UNCrules2187]

Not

An

Upset

 

FO qualifies "upsets" as games where a team is a 3 point-plus underdog, but has a better than expected chance to win than implied by the line (which is 49ers -6.5).

[teeray]

FO qualifies "upsets" as games where a team is a 3 point-plus underdog, but has a better than expected chance to win than implied by the line (which is 49ers -6.5).

That's great.

Not

An

Upset

;)

[thunderraiden]

Not sure exactly what you're saying here - there's much more to the article than what I quoted.

 

I'm saying quote more of the article, if it relates to the panthers :D

[MichaelNewtonII]

I'd say whoevers o line holds up best will have the highest chance of winning

[the butch]

Really liked the part that broke down their effectiveness (or lack thereof) in the traditional run game, which excludes QB runs. Also like that they suck at second and long.

[teeray]

I'd say whoevers o line holds up best will have the highest chance of winning

No worries, we have two DTs playing O-line so we should be straight.

Ugh.