Here's an in-depth presentation of statistical projections over the remainder of the season

[PhillyB]

I'm bored at work because the only thing in town is a convention of high school counselors and none of them have the money to drink, so while they're passing around a bottle of pinnacle bubblegum vodka and mixing it with sprite up in their rooms and watching pretty little liars or some bullshit I'll be down here by myself watching highlights from the falcons game and reliving every glorious moment and sipping on some hot water and whiskey to massage the raw craters left in my throat by four quarters of trachea-splitting hubbub on defense sunday afternoon. Naturally this means it's time for a statistical projections thread.

 

These types of analyses are often done prematurely because it's fun to see a big game by a particular player and then excitedly proclaim that Steve Smith is due for a 1,855-yard season if everything keeps clicking like that last game; small sample sizes have a nasty habit of dooming statistical analysis's chances of being anything meaningful. However, we are exactly halfway through the season. We've seen good games and we've seen bad games, we've seen good defenses and bad defenses, we've seen turnovers and touchdownfests, up-trends and down-trends. We've rage-hurled TV remotes into walls and launched them into the ceiling with joy. This is all to say we have a nice sample size from which to extrapolate.

 

I shall gild the lily no more. Here's our panthers protaganists' pertinent projections for the rest of the season.

 

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We'll start with offense.

 

Cam Newton is projected to throw for 3,602 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, and run for 8 TDs. This would be the fewest yards he's thrown in his career by about 300, but he'll have thrown 5 more touchdowns AND 3 less interceptions than his best statistical season in 2011, while also bumping his completion percentage up by 5 percentage points from his best season in that category (2012.) It will also move Cam into the Carolina Panthers 3rd-ranked passer in franchise history, passing Kerry Collins (assuming San Fran holds him under 300 yards next week, he'll probably pass this benchmark on MNF football against the Patriots.)

 

Steve Smith is projected to catch 72 balls for 774 yards and 6 TDs. Statistically speaking this would be one of his worst years, but as we'll see Cam is spreading the ball around far more than he's done in previous years; we're also seeing Steve move gradually into a new identity as a role-player. And that's fine, because he's doing it well. Ricky Proehl's arrival and Shula's shifting of Steve to the slot may have prolonged his career by another 3-4 years. It's a role he's thriving in. He'll also break 12,000 yards receiving by year's end.

 

Brandon LaFell is projected to catch 54 balls for 704 yards and 6 TDs. This would be his fourth consecutive year topping his previous year's stats in every major category, which is exactly what you look for in a young receiver. Brandon is no number one, but he's fulfilling a role this team absolutely needed. He's also racking up these stats while Cam is passing less and spreading the ball to a third wide receiver, a position where Carolina has lacked since Cam's arrival. The occasional drop aside, LaFell is making the most of his opportunities in a contract year (and believe it or not he's closing in on 4th all-time on the franchise's receiving yardage list.)

 

Ted Ginn Jr. is projected to catch 42 balls for 734 yards and 4 TDs. Ginn may well be the biggest difference maker on this offense. With Steve Smith slowing down and moving to the slot and LaFell primarily existing as a possession receiver who relies on body control and route-running to make catches, the Panthers have been in desperate need of a guy who can take the top off of secondaries. Ever since Ginn starting snatching deep balls out of the sky behind otherwise skillful defenders, teams have started to pay close attention when he's on the field. I don't think it's any coincidence that our offense began really opening up after he caught that deep bomb against the Giants; he's also being utilized more and more on screens, and at any moment he's going to break one wide open. He's also legitimized our return game for the first time since - dare I say it - Steve Smith circa 2003?

 

Greg Olsen is projected to catch 68 balls for 852 yards and 6 TDs. Greg is not a flashy guy, and sometimes you forget he's in the game at all; Cam seems to target him often in the first quarter and then he just kind of slips into the distance. But he's quietly having a career year, and with a random monster game he could end up breaking the 1k mark for the first time in his career. Greg is instrumental to everything we do on offense, and it's plausible he could be our team leader in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, if he can outpace Steve Smith.

 

Armanti Edwards is projected to catch 45 balls for 529 yards and 3 TDs.

 

 

 

 

DeAngelo Williams is projected to run 254 times for 1,038 yards and 2 TDs. He's a mainstay of this Panthers offense whether fans want to admit it or not, and while he hasn't had a noisy year he's on pace to top a thousand yards on the season. Considering Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert are on your team that's a fine statline.

 

Mike Tolbert is projected to run 114 times for 412 yards and 8 TDs. Tolbert is another indispensable cog in this offense. Part of the reason we're so effective in the red zone is that defenses have to choose to defend either Tolbert or Cam, and it's seldom they can do both. He is also, hands down, the most entertaining person on the field after scoring a touchdown.

 

 

Next up: Defense. Flecks of spittle glisten tell-tale upon the lips of ESPN analysts when they mention our defense and they're the harbinger of the unbridled knob-slobbering to come if we come out on top of San Fran and face Tom Brady on MNF. I'm going to break defense down by performance category, starting with tackles. Actually you know what? No, I just got lazy. Here's a nice chart instead:

 

 

 

Look at these monstrous sons of bitches playing linebacker for us. Look at them. Thomas Davis is leading this team in tackles. Keuchly sits just behind him; they're neck-and-neck for the team lead. Mike Mitchell comes in third place. That guy is by far the most important defensive free agent Gettleman snagged. He's taken glaring weaknesses at safety and turned them into an actual legitimate strength. Receivers worry about this guy. Quarterbacks worry about this guy. Ball boys poo their pants on the sidelines. Captain Munnerlyn is having another stellar year, just behind Mitchell in tackles, and Hardy rounds out the top five (one of his biggest knocks was that his skill as a pass rusher was largely overshadowed by his inability to play the run; he's countered nicely.)

 

In sacks, Charles Johnson leads the team with 7, and he's projected to end the season with 14; Hardy stands to close out with 10, which is hardly 50, but we'll take it. Davis has 3 sacks like a badass, Mitchell has 2. By the end of the season this unit is projected to close out with 54 sacks.

 

Turnovers have been a big part of this defense's success. Ron was right about feeding frenzies. Currently we're one of the top scoring defenses in the NFL, holding a turnover margin of +8. Together this team has 12 INTs so far, projected at 24 by season's end. Two of those have been returned for touchdowns, so at this rate expect two more.

 

Finally, at our current rate, the Carolina Panthers will win the remainder of their games 26-13, go 13-3 and win the division.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

all of this is for naught unless SCP makes a funny thread about san francisco.

[CLTPanther]

I'm glad I don't have your job

[PhillyB]

I'm glad I don't have your job

 

when i'm busy i'm making good money and talking to interesting people from all over the world. when i'm slow i'm writing papers for school and posting at length about the panthers.

 

i'm glad i have my job

[Car123]

Hoping Steve reaches 1000 yards.

[CLTPanther]

I hate having too much down time, I'd go nuts

[Cam's New Arm]

[wine-o and cheese-doodle]

Very interesting. Thanks

[CRA]

I would add another thought on Smith...it is often stated that his production is diminishing bc Newton is spreading the ball around however...Smith isn't seeing a decline in targets. I think his decreased production is largely his routes being altered and his YAC ability declining.

I mean, when was the last completed vertical route anyone can recall 89 completing? Or when were the last two even attempted. He rapidly is turned into a possession receiver. He isn't bad at that....but his usage has dramatically changed while still being heavily targeted. 2011 vs 2013 is a dramatic change IMO

[PhillyB]

I would add another thought on Smith...it is often stated that his production is diminishing bc Newton is spreading the ball around however...Smith isn't seeing a decline in targets. I think his decreased production is largely his routes being altered and his YAC ability declining.

I mean, when was the last completed vertical route anyone can recall 89 completing? Or when were the last two even attempted. He rapidly is turned into a possession receiver. He isn't bad at that....but his usage has dramatically changed while still being heavily targeted. 2011 vs 2013 is a dramatic change IMO

 

agree. he used to be good for a target or two downfield every game, and now he's just not running those routes. ginn has taken that role.

 

it's resulted in less flash for steve personally, but a more balanced, effective offense as a whole. i'll take that.

[Ruff]

Burnett's > pinnacle.

I'll leave now.

[TrueBlackandBlue]

agree. he used to be good for a target or two downfield every game, and now he's just not running those routes. ginn has taken that role.

 

it's resulted in less flash for steve personally, but a more balanced, effective offense as a whole. i'll take that.

 

Yeah the offense has improved in efficiency at the expense of Smitty's stats. We did well for years by bombing it too him late in games. I'm not convinced he's lost the ability to make those plays but when you lead at halftime IN EVERY GAME, the need isn't there. Watching that top ten highlight of Cam escaping the pocket and Smitty breaking a tackle to make a short run after the catch, I can see that hes a lot closer than any other reciever would be to breaking it for a TD. I think we might see it a few times this season when we start playing in closer games.

[CRA]

Yeah the offense has improved in efficiency at the expense of Smitty's stats. We did well for years by bombing it too him late in games. I'm not convinced he's lost the ability to make those plays but when you lead at halftime IN EVERY GAME, the need isn't there. Watching that top ten highlight of Cam escaping the pocket and Smitty breaking a tackle to make a short run after the catch, I can see that hes a lot closer than any other reciever would be to breaking it for a TD. I think we might see it a few times this season when we start playing in closer games.

It isn't at 89s expense....he can't do it anymore. It started last year. In 2012 they realized they had to alter his usage.

Go back to 2012.....how many vertical routes did 89 complete?

[PhillyB]

i would love to see a year-to-year comparison of the routes steve smith runs on any given play.

[CRA]

i would love to see a year-to-year comparison of the routes steve smith runs on any given play.

I spoke about his decline in YAC and vertical catches last year.....of course I caught hell for bringing it up.