Drive Stats (NFL Gamebooks) CAR vs. SF. Make 'em drive the field.

[Marguide]

Very well done PT2.

 

Please keep this up going forward if you have the time.

[Catweisers]

If numbers are worth anything I think we number 1 in time of  possession.  Our defense is our best offensive weapon.  I got all my digits crossed!!! 

 

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• HUDDLER
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Posted 30 June 2013 - 04:51 PM

The front seven Let Them be" Magnificent  Seven" is going to make every QB a scrambling QB.  No one throws on run as well as they do in pocket with a little time.  Not going to happen, we run them all over place and got rotational guys to do same thing play after play.  Big O lineman gets tired out real fast and D gives ball to Cam and Co. 

All this running make our safties kinda like out fielders, by the time season over with we will have some fine safties!!!

 

Gooooo Panthers

 

I got Faith Keep on Pounding!!!!

[PantherGuy]

This is from my own data mining from the official NFL Gamebooks.

Last week it was the defenses that were wildly different between ATL and CAR. This week the slight edge goes to the Panther offense.

 

Starting with Defense:

Thru Week 9 both defenses are actually very similar.

Panthers defense is allowing scores on 26% of all drives.

49ers are nearly identical at 27%. 

 

If we break it down we do see a difference that could make the difference this Sunday.

Panthers (13 FGs, 9 TDs, 84 drives) - allowing TDs only 11% of the time.

49ers (8 FGs, 17 TDs, 93 drives) - allowing TDs 18% of the time.

Roughly, the Panthers will give up 1 TD per game, 49ers almost 2.

 

Both teams stumbled the first few games....so by looking at winning streaks only.....

Panthers D (6 FGs, 4 TDs, 42 drives).....23%

49ers D (4 FGs, 7 TDs, 59 drives) ..... 18% (lower is better)

Both teams have allowed garbage time scores once the games were out of hand so both defenses are very good and beat down average NFL offenses. 

 

 

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But the 49er offense is NOT the Panther offense. Will expand on this in moment.....

At a glance, Panthers edge out the 49ers but not by much.

Panthers are scoring on 43% of all drives. (12 FGs, 22 TDs, 80 drives) Ranked 6th.

49ers are scoring on 36%. (9 FGs, 24 TDs, 91 drives) Ranked 15th.

 

Winning streaks only:

Panthers (6 FGs, 14 TDs, 37 drives) 54%

49ers (6 FGs, 19 TDs, 58 drives) 43%

 

Again, if both teams wanted to throttle the other team, these numbers could be even higher as both teams had large leads and started to kill clock.

 

The disparity comes when an offense needs to drive 80 yards to score.

49ers led off in Week 1 at a fantastic 80%. (4 scoring drives out of 5 of 80 yards or longer) against Green Bay. Since then they have fallen quite a bit and not been greater than 33% in any game.

Currently @ 28% (2 FGs, 10 TDs, 43 drives)

On the flip side..

Panthers started week 1, at 17% and have climbed near the top of the NFL since. Currently at 39%, ranked 4th (4 FGs, 9 TDs, 33 drives), tied with Chicago.

 

Given a long field, the SanFran offense has been league average. Short fields and they can score, but I think the lack of passing production does provide a weak link. BTW, Panthers are #1 in the NFL at making the opponent start at their 20 or worse. (73%, 61 of 84 drives). Compare to SanFran (ranked 10th, @58%)

 

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Additional notes: Indy is the same way as SanFran. Shoft field and Indy is a TD machine...80 yards and Luck & Co. are league average.

 

May get around to creating a Skydrive acct just for this excel file so I can upload and people can view all the data in a webapp.

 

IMO these are exceptional insights. It's not surprising that we're the best in the NFL at making other teams start at the 20 or worse. Gano has kicked the vast majority of his kickoffs out of the endzone. He's almost automatic at getting touchbacks from kicking the ball out of the endzone.

[pstall]

nice post op

 

i say 1st and 2nd downs will be huge on which team avoids 3rd and long.

[Snake]

I would defer the kickoff if we win the toss. Need to let our defense get field position first.

[rayzor]

I would defer the kickoff if we win the toss. Need to let our defense get field position first.

i think we have been.

[iamhubby1]

The keys to this game are two-fold for the Panthers to win.  They MUST make Kaepernick commit turnovers, and the make-shift O-Line MUST protect Newton.

 

Their strengths and weaknesses are being pitted against our strengths and weaknesses fairly evenly with respect to season statistics.  The last two weeks have seen the Panthers get away with mistakes that will NOT be forgiven by a 49er team that is hard and disciplined.  Strap the helmets on and get ready for a fight or this can look very bad for either side.

There O against our Defense? I take our D.

There D against our Offense? I take our O.

Other than that. I agree with your assessment. We are learning how to be a Bully Big Brother type team. You had better be ready for some football, because we have this list of spank victims we'd like to add your name to if you're not.

 

 

this is huge and could be the deciding factor. home field advantage will help, but only so much.

good work again.

I concur wholeheartedly. Our ability to put those long scoring drives together is huge.

I am a firm believer in the 1:05 start time aids us greatly. Keeps us on schedule as it comes to game day time restraints. Just another game for us. Nothing special. Or maybe I am overthinking this?

 

 

Nice work.

 

All comes down to turnover differential this game IMO. Protect the ball, and force a couple of TOs from the 9ers...we can win. Give them extra chances, we lose.

Good points. If we limit our mistakes. They will have to play a hell-of-a-game to beat us.

 

 

we have turned the corner but this is the next one coming up. winning a close and ugly game

The Key word? Winning. If we want to be special, this is the type of game you have to win. Ugly is in the eye of the beholder.

 

 

nice post op

 

i say 1st and 2nd downs will be huge on which team avoids 3rd and long.

IMO, our ability to be successful on 1st down is huge. We can do almost anything on 2-6. Which is why we have so many 2nd down conversions. If it works yeah, if it doesn't, Cam is completing 75% of his 3rd down passes.

We have done a great job of staying on schedule. One very important aspect to why we can go on extended drives. Easier 3rd down conversions when you are ahead of the chains on the early downs. Keeps the D winded, and saps their will.

 

 

I would defer the kickoff if we win the toss. Need to let our defense get field position first.

Pretty much SOP up in here. Gano kicks the ball through the uprights. They start at the 20. Our Defense forces a punt. We start in a short, for us anywho, field.

Add in the fact that if we score at half, as we've done 3-4 times. We immediately come out in the 2nd half with a chance to score again.

Aggressive strategy for a coach that wants to be aggressive. Not a big thing by itself, but does add to the whole.

Just watch this week, or any game of late, how effective we are on 1st down. To me, that speaks aggression. We play physical, smart, relentless football. On both sides of the ball. And I can live with that.

[DaveThePanther2008]

Here's hoping Gano adds to his probowl resume this week.

Good stuff.

 

I am hoping so too.  Isn't Candlestick also known for its peculiar wind?  I hope he gets their early and works on kicking in that stadium.  I think that it may come down to who has the better kicker.

 

And Rivera has to give him a shot if he is anywhere near his range.

[Ace_Aladdin]

Run game has to be top notch ..Heavy dose of Tolbert & and Stew in the middle  and Williams at the edge. Cam also needs to have a good day with his legs.

 

 

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

And Rivera has to give him a shot if he is anywhere near his range.

During the Falcons game, one of the anouncers mentioned that Rivera said he'd be comfortable giving Gano a shot from 65 yards. Maybe talking out of his ass, but still....

[dos poptarts]

Added a skydrive link to the OP.

 

anyway....SanFran's defense is #2 (opponents only score 19%) in stopping 80+ yard scoring drives. It will be interesting to see one of our Offensive Strengths vs SanFrans Defensive Strength. Unstoppable force vs unmovable object.

 

Panther Defense is league average at stopping 80+ yard drives (26%).....but making teams drive that 80yards still #1 (73%).

 

Some caveats:

I consider Turnovers any offensive failed drive. fumbles, int, blocked punts, downs, missed FGs.

 

 

[The Huddler]

You guys want to see an un favorable match up?

Eating a ton of beans the night before an exam is not a good match up at all when you can't leave the room for 1 1/2 hours. Clinch and hold, mind over matter.

Don't drink a large coffee either.

[thefuzz]

If we get into 3rd and longs, it could get ugly.

 

Their D Line, while a little banged up, scares me against this O line.

 

Also will be huge to keep Luke clean all day.  If he is having to clear their big O Line all day, they will beat us to death with the run.

Is Dwan ready?