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Sooooo.... DeAngelo Williams......

AKPantherFan

By AKPantherFan,
in Carolina Panthers

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CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted

he got pulled when cam got pulled.

Williams wasn't even in for garbage time.

Score was already 38-0, RR had opted not to kick FGs bc it was unsportsmanlike before they got pulled.....

Garbage time was before the one series Armond Smith played

Williams had 7 rush attempts on the drive RR thought it was disrespectful to kick a FG.

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panthers55 Grand Master

panthers55

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I don't know how anyone could say it was garbage time when we were up by only 24.  Lets be real here.  Weren't we up by 23-0 against Atlanta last year at the end of the third quarter only to have to hold on to win at the end?  Didn't we blow an 11 point lead to the Bucs with only a few minutes left in the game?

 

I was at the game and it wasn't until we were up 31 and they failed to move the ball that I actually felt this game was in the bag.  After so many late collapses where we couldn't run the ball for first downs and were unwilling to throw it, I personally didn't think it was garbage time until the last 9 or 10 minutes.  Maybe that was me and with other teams a 24 point lead may be safe but is it with our defense the way they have played before this Sunday?  As many late leads as we have blown I would think our definition of junk time and other teams would be different.

 

Now I will let you to another 5 pages of arguing.....

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Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

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It's actually trending up if you look at it year by year per carry.

 

In 2011 he had 0 per 155

In 2012 he had 1 per 86.5

in 2013 he has 1 per 62

 

It has to be drastically different because we are not dealing with a length of time that is infinite. There is an avg lifespan of an nfl player and a rb. to use a 6 year moving avg would almost double the avg  career of a player and doesn't make too much sense. of course it does if you want to keep Dwill in a microcosm and show stats and data that only support your stance

 

The point I am getting at is it can only be a meaningful trend if it is outside the expected normal variation.

 

If Deangelo's long term trend is say 1 fumble per year all things being equal, is it outside the normal expected variance for him to have two years of 2 fumbles. I would say it is not and I might actually model this later if I get bored.

 

You should be able to gather a bunch of data on RBs who had 1 fumble per year and show that it is completely common to have bad streaks. But yes, bad streaks also may be the start of a trend. You will not be able to tell from the data until you have more information.

 

You should read "how to lie with statistics" or any of the similar books. You will recognize data manipulation all the time and it almost always indicates a biased agenda. One  good example is here:

 

http://www.physics.smu.edu/pseudo/LieStat/

 

Go to the "how to prove a coin is biased" part.

 

I like dice better. If you want to prove a die rolls too may sixes, start rolling until you have too many sixes and then stop immediately. This is both cherry picking and manipulating endpoints, two very common manipulation techniques.

 

The deangelo trend is no different. We are measuring his fumble rate right now right after a terrible game with two fumbles. That is endpoint manipulation and cherry picking. If his fumble rate has truly changed then it will become evident in the next year or two. If he starts averaging 3-4 fumbles per year then we can say it is a new trend. If he has a long stretch with no fumbles then we can say his current "bad" streak was just a statistical anomaly.

 

But we don't know either way. 

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Panthro Collaborator

Panthro

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The point I am getting at is it can only be a meaningful trend if it is outside the expected normal variation.

 

If Deangelo's long term trend is say 1 fumble per year all things being equal, is it outside the normal expected variance for him to have two years of 2 fumbles. I would say it is not and I might actually model this later if I get bored.

 

You should be able to gather a bunch of data on RBs who had 1 fumble per year and show that it is completely common to have bad streaks. But yes, bad streaks also may be the start of a trend. You will not be able to tell from the data until you have more information.

 

You should read "how to lie with statistics" or any of the similar books. You will recognize data manipulation all the time and it almost always indicates a biased agenda. One  good example is here:

 

http://www.physics.smu.edu/pseudo/LieStat/

 

Go to the "how to prove a coin is biased" part.

 

I like dice better. If you want to prove a die rolls too may sixes, start rolling until you have too many sixes and then stop immediately. This is both cherry picking and manipulating endpoints, two very common manipulation techniques.

 

The deangelo trend is no different. We are measuring his fumble rate right now right after a terrible game with two fumbles. That is endpoint manipulation and cherry picking. If his fumble rate has truly changed then it will become evident in the next year or two. If he starts averaging 3-4 fumbles per year then we can say it is a new trend. If he has a long stretch with no fumbles then we can say his current "bad" streak was just a statistical anomaly.

 

But we don't know either way. 

You are comparing something that is a constant like dice and completely eliminating outside influence and variables from those stats.

 

When you deal with something that has a number of variables you have to forecast or present some "bias" as it is a forecast. ex If you fail to weight more recent events over the past you also run the risk of ignoring possible trends because you weighted equally a rb's stats from 7-6 years ago equally to the present.

 

 

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Panthro Collaborator

Panthro

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I don't know how anyone could say it was garbage time when we were up by only 24.  Lets be real here.  Weren't we up by 23-0 against Atlanta last year at the end of the third quarter only to have to hold on to win at the end?  Didn't we blow an 11 point lead to the Bucs with only a few minutes left in the game?

 

I was at the game and it wasn't until we were up 31 and they failed to move the ball that I actually felt this game was in the bag.  After so many late collapses where we couldn't run the ball for first downs and were unwilling to throw it, I personally didn't think it was garbage time until the last 9 or 10 minutes.  Maybe that was me and with other teams a 24 point lead may be safe but is it with our defense the way they have played before this Sunday?  As many late leads as we have blown I would think our definition of junk time and other teams would be different.

 

Now I will let you to another 5 pages of arguing.....

 

50% of his total yards came after we were up by 38. On one play when we were up by 38 he gained 25% of his yards on one play.

 

Sorry but that was garbage time. He didn't have a great day. He had an average day then padded his stats when the game was in the bag

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TheRumGone Grand Master

TheRumGone

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50% of his total yards came after we were up by 38. On one play when we were up by 38 he gained 25% of his yards on one play.

 

Sorry but that was garbage time. He didn't have a great day. He had an average day then padded his stats when the game was in the bag

 

I haven't seen anybody answer Teeray's post.

 

If we were killing the clock, everybody knew we were gonna run this poo out of the ball. If they knew, and still couldn't stop it. Is that really garbage time? You could make the claim Dlo got more carries because of it.

 

Garbage time to me is if Eli was throwing up bombs at the end of the game and padding stats. Everyone and their mother knew we were going to pound the rock, still couldn't stop it.

 

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