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Sooooo.... DeAngelo Williams......

AKPantherFan

By AKPantherFan,
in Carolina Panthers

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CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted

No I was missing a receiving fumble in 2013.

Still he is well above average in fumbles, not only the last three years but during his entire career.

The things you are saying are simply false. Go look at the link I provided.

400+to+699+RB.png

What I said isn't false.... He was comically good to start off his career In regards to NOT fumbling. Fact.

Now? He fumbles more...and when you include his current fumbling which I clearly did. He is fumbling on pace with your standard RB.

Add 66 touches and 2 more fumbles to your numbers...bumps him to .959%.

That is a different guy than the 2006 -2008 trademark non fumbler. .162%

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CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted

It looks like the average on that list is around 1.4% to 1.5%.

How is .959% average?

You are looking at a quirky window..... only select RBs who have a certain amount of carries in a 2 year window.

For example, your stats give you no clue if you you wanted to look at 2012 and how he stacked up....bc it doesn't even factor in guys who just ran last year. Doesn't factor in with committee guys with comparable roles either he had. Your stats don't even address how he stacked up last year for example

2012 to date....he definitely isn't protecting the ball worth bragging about. He also has had some huge ones in that time from. 2 cost us wins IMO

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Panthro Collaborator

Panthro

Posted
Posted

Well by your grading Tiki Barber would have fallen victim to early fumbling problems which were fixed later in his career. The point is you cannot take what a rb did 7 years ago and apply it to the present day. Going back last year and including this year....his fumbling has increased and is higher than most other big name feature backs

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Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

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Well by your grading Tiki Barber would have fallen victim to early fumbling problems which were fixed later in his career. The point is you cannot take what a rb did 7 years ago and apply it to the present day. 

 

This is exactly what you are supposed to do. It is a statistical credibility issue. Unless you have some theory that Deangelo is a worse ball carrier today than he has been long term and history doesn't apply.

 

The only way you can make a case that Deangelo now has fumbling issues is if you only give statistical weight to the last 16 games where he has 4 fumbles. 100% credibility and none to his past 7 seasons. You are inventing a trend with limited data.

 

Fumbles tend to get grouped together. That is just the variance of the game. Based on history you expect Deangelo to have long periods with no fumbles. Why would that change now?

 

He also had 4 fumbles in 19 games in 2009 and 2010. Did that make him a bad ball protector? Only if you isolate those games and ignore the others around it.

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Panthro Collaborator

Panthro

Posted
Posted

This is exactly what you are supposed to do. It is a statistical credibility issue. Unless you have some theory that Deangelo is a worse ball carrier today than he has been long term and history doesn't apply.

 

The only way you can make a case that Deangelo now has fumbling issues is if you only give statistical weight to the last 16 games where he has 4 fumbles. 100% credibility and none to his past 7 seasons. You are inventing a trend with limited data.

 

Fumbles tend to get grouped together. That is just the variance of the game. Based on history you expect Deangelo to have long periods with no fumbles. Why would that change now?

 

He also had 4 fumbles in 19 games in 2009 and 2010. Did that make him a bad ball protector? Only if you isolate those games and ignore the others around it.

 

I am not inventing a trend I am looking at a moving average.  You are weighting 2006 just as much as you are weighting 2012/2013 which in essence is a problem because of age, speed, injuries, offense are not factored in. These are all things you do not account for because you want to hold Dwill as a constant over time.

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Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
Posted

I am not inventing a trend I am looking at a moving average.  You are weighting 2006 just as much as you are weighting 2012/2013 which in essence is a problem because of age, speed, injuries, offense are not factored in. These are all things you do not account for because you want to hold Dwill as a constant over time.

 

I'm not weighting 2006 equally - I'm would give decreasing credibility as you go back in time. But in my model all data would get some sort of credibility. There is too much noise in the process

 

Moving average is fine, but you need it to be a long enough time period so that it doesn't move to much when the endpoint moves on either end. In this case a 4 year moving average is drastically different than a 6 year.

 

My point is if you are identifying solid trends for Deangelo based on the last 12 months, as is CRA, then you are statistically (and otherwise) biased.

 

We will know if this is the start of a trend later

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Panthro Collaborator

Panthro

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Posted

It's actually trending up if you look at it year by year per carry.

 

In 2011 he had 0 per 155

In 2012 he had 1 per 86.5

in 2013 he has 1 per 62

 

It has to be drastically different because we are not dealing with a length of time that is infinite. There is an avg lifespan of an nfl player and a rb. to use a 6 year moving avg would almost double the avg  career of a player and doesn't make too much sense. of course it does if you want to keep Dwill in a microcosm and show stats and data that only support your stance

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