David Newton has still got Rivera's back on that 4th and 1

[PhillyB]

it's not a blitheringly stupid move to kick the field goal if your entire secondary hasn't been injured to hell at least once in the game, buuuuuuuuuut....

[mav1234]

I think most good coaches probably would have done something similar to what we did.

 

I don't think so - maybe in a vacuum just given the score etc... but I think that given this team, this situation... I don't think a good coach woulda done that.

 

of course maybe a good coach wouldn't have had us in that situation at all?

[panther4life]

Most coaches would make the same decision so firing Rivera would not likely be any different

And I am not defending Rivera as a coach, just that situation

We convert the first down 81% of the time when going for it when it's 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1. When it comes to protecting a 1 score lead on the final possession of the game we are 0-4. No way I can agree that it was the right decision.

[koolkatluke]

I think most good coaches probably would have done something similar to what we did.

 

I've seen The "Hood" and Sean Payton Makes gutsy calls all the time. That what makes some Coaches HC and other lifetime Cordinators.

[teeray]

Like I said I the masses are going to flame me. :lol:

Look, if you can't stop a rookie QB from driving 80 yards in 90 seconds with no timeouts you don't deserve to win.

According to advanced NFL statistics even with three timeouts your win probability when being down 6 with 90 seconds starting at your own 20 is 14%.

Take into account a rookie QB I am sure that number would drop considerably.

So we have a non conversion rate of 19% or make them.drive for a TD that has a probability of 14%. If they need only a field goal if we don't make it then the probability of them getting a field goal is @24%.

Of course if we do make it we win 99% of the time.

[mav1234]

ok so what's the probability of winning when you don't convert on 4th and 1 and then the opponent has to drive 90 yards for a TD?

 

edit: anyone I doubt there are NFL statistics that are situational enough to tell us what the probability of a rookie quarterback versus our carolina panthers defense in those circumstances are.

 

you have to consider the units involved beyond just advanced metrics, anyhow.

[teeray]

ok so what's the probability of winning when you don't convert on 4th and 1 and then the opponent has to drive 90 yards for a TD?

About the same, but they would need a field goal to tie which is about 24%

[mav1234]

About the same, but they would need a field goal to tie which is about 24%

 

so that 24% is the percentage of teams that get a field goal after an opponent fails to convert a 4th and 1 on the last drive of the game?

[teeray]

so that 24% is the percentage of teams that get a field goal after an opponent fails to convert a 4th and 1 on the last drive of the game?

Well, not necessarily after a 4th and 1. But to get a field goal starting from around their own 20 with 1:30 left in the game.

[mav1234]

Well, not necessarily after a 4th and 1. But to get a field goal starting from around their own 20 with 1:30 left in the game.

 

Interesting numbers, but I don't think a team should be coached from advanced statistics alone.  Still cool though, thanks for sharing.

 

My opinion is those differences are so small and given what our team was going through, going for it would have been the better decision.

Of course, it's very easy to second guess things; if we'd gone for it, not made it, then lost in OT, half the people bitching about not going for it would be crucifying Rivera for going for it.

 

I personally still wouldn't because I'd rather see evidence of Rivera getting more aggressive - in an intelligent way, not the way our offense was being "aggressive."

[AceBoogie]

Only a loser team would try to tie the game and not win it. If I were Buffalo I would be going for the td if I were down by 6 or 3. Rivera needed to man up. The only thing he took away was the tie. Be man enough to go for it on 4th down. If they kick the fg then go beat them in overtime. If they score a td they win anyway. More importantly if you get a first down GAME OVER.

[teeray]

Interesting numbers, but I don't think a team should be coached from advanced statistics alone. Still cool though, thanks for sharing.

My opinion is those differences are so small and given what our team was going through, going for it would have been the better decision.

Of course, it's very easy to second guess things; if we'd gone for it, not made it, then lost in OT, half the people bitching about not going for it would be crucifying Rivera for going for it.

I personally still wouldn't because I'd rather see evidence of Rivera getting more aggressive - in an intelligent way, not the way our offense was being "aggressive."

I don't like coaching based on advanced statistics either. Statisticians think you should almost always go for it on virtually every fourth down no matter the distance (within reason)

I can't say I agree with that.

[tight lines]

The biggest issue to me is that the statistical difference in this sitution between winning the game with a 6 point lead vs a 3 point lead while in either situation the opposing team starts on the 20 is pretty much a wash. Yes you add in the chance to tie with a 3 point lead, but if they tie you still have a 50% chance in overtime. What the statistics don't take into account is that Ron Riveras defense has given up the lead most of the time in these situations, without including the fact that half the starting secondary is in the locker room.

[teeray]

If you lose you are going to get flamed either way. For example, if we didn't get it and lost in OT I would have flamed him for not kicking the field goal, and I am willing to bet that there would have been many that would be eager to pile on Rivera along side me.

Maybe even some of the same people who are mad that we did kick a field goal. ;)