D-Will's 2009 production to drop?

[ncbobcat]

First off, please don't move this to the fantasy forum as the context of the thread is in actual REALITY production.

Fantasy owners have been leery of drafting DeAngelo as their #1 back because of numerous factors that you will see in the link below. A laundry list is provided as to why: history, schedule this year, schedule last year, splitting carries and injuries... and so on. The author of the peice states Williams TDs should drop off back to around 10 with a few hundred less yards.

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/11905712

Now, FORGET the fantasy aspect and let's debate why or why not D-Will's season is or isn't going to drastically different from last season.

I feel he will drop off some...probably 14 total TDs and 1,400 yards. He had an amazing season last year and it will be difficult to yield the same resluts. Still, I think D-Will should post those numbers I projected and make his first Pro Bowl.

[User Name]

I'll be happy with anything over 1000 and double digit TD's, but I think he's capable of much more...

If he's still on the board I'll be drafting him, if I have the pick he'll go first overall. Of course I have to draft him he's been on my roster since he was a rookie, and he won me a big ole wad of cash last year.

[panthers55]

Keep in mind that his production in the first half of the year was not that prolific. He came on like gangbusters in the second half. I think he could easily average 100 yards a game and 1 TD. That would put him at 1600 yards and 16 TDs. Another 400 yards and 4 TDs in the playoffs. Seems great to me.

[Baschski]

Yeah I can't see him averaging anything less than a touchdown a game. That would be a serious drop off. Realistically, it's hard to duplicate a season like that. But maybe he'll just continue on with the momentum of the 2nd half of last season and run for 2000 yards and 26 TD's this year, who knows?

I just hope his fumble number stays where it is.

[holderoftruth]

I think both Williams and Stewarts numbers will drop from last year, just my two cents

[ncbobcat]

I think Stewart will absorb about 4-6 of those rushing TDs. Honestly, I think Stewart will have more rushing TDs than Williams. Those goal line carries will go to #28 this year. Remember, DeAngelo had FOUR one-yard TDs in the Green Bay game last year.

Stewart will get more carries also, taking away about 200-300 yards from Williams. In all, I think the numbers as a whole doesn't change all that drastically, as I do with J-Stew just evening them out a bit more than last year.

As a tandem, I think 2,200 yards and 28 TDs will be the mark they set. Singularly, Williams doesn't reach last year's lofty stats.

[panthers55]

I think Stewart will absorb about 4-6 of those rushing TDs. Honestly, I think Stewart will have more rushing TDs than Williams. Those goal line carries will go to #28 this year. Remember, DeAngelo had FOUR one-yard TDs in the Green Bay game last year.

Stewart will get more carries also, taking away about 200-300 yards from Williams. In all, I think the numbers as a whole doesn't change all that drastically, as I do with J-Stew just evening them out a bit more than last year.

As a tandem, I think 2,200 yards and 28 TDs will be the mark they set. Singularly, Williams doesn't reach last year's lofty stats.

Before I give Stewart a bunch of those carries I would like to see him attend a practice or two. Hard to predict what he will do until he gets healthy. He seems to be starting off this year like last. Different issue but still a concern.

As long as we average around 27 points a game this year, I don't care how we get them.

[ncbobcat]

Before I give Stewart a bunch of those carries I would like to see him attend a practice or two. Hard to predict what he will do until he gets healthy. He seems to be starting off this year like last. Different issue but still a concern.

As long as we average around 27 points a game this year, I don't care how we get them.

Stewart will be fine, just resting for camp.

Agreed, as long as we put up more points than the opposition, I don't care if Jake is running the pig skin for TDs.

[mountainpantherfan]

If the following players all play 16 games each, then Williams' numbers will be UP from last year: Gross, Otah, Vincent, Wharton, Kalil. For every game one of those guys miss you can take 50 yards off of his total.

[X-Clown]

I think the TD numbers will fall, only because some of those are going to go to Smith (who got robbed of at least a couple from getting tackled at the 1 yard line), and to our other receivers. But I don't care who is scoring them, as long as it's somebody with a Panthers jersey.

[ncbobcat]

If the following players all play 16 games each, then Williams' numbers will be UP from last year: Gross, Otah, Vincent, Wharton, Kalil. For every game one of those guys miss you can take 50 yards off of his total.

No other variables factor in? A healthy Williams and O-line mean better numbers for DeAngelo than last season. That's some high expectations.

[CarolinaPanthers8789]

PLEASE HELP

I was able to draft both Stewart and Williams, but I have a question should I consider dropping Dominic Rhodes and adding Mike Goodson?

[holderoftruth]

Here's my reasoning for why I think Williams and Stewart’s numbers will be less than they were last season.

1. Health- Last season the Panthers stayed relatively healthily. Yes, the panthers had some injuries that had some players sit out for one/two games but we had no Tom Brady impact injury. The past 3-4 seasons injuries have plagued the Panthers. I am not saying that this year we will have the injury bug but based on our past it seems like we will have some injuries to the O-line, and with the lack of experience there it could make it hard to run the football. Even major injuries on defense will hurt the offense.

2. Jake Delhomme- First off I am not bashing Jake in this paragraph. The truth is though that Jake is the weakest part of our offense. No one can deny that. We have one of the best Running back tandem in the NFL, A top 5 Offensive line, and a pro bowl receiver in Smith. Teams understand this and will make Jake beat them, not William/Stewart. The running game will rest on Jakes arm because if he can throw the ball deep and make the safeties not cheat up then their will be room to run the football.

3. Surprise no more- Going into last season, outside of the Carolinas, people had no respect/faith in Our two running backs. Williams never ran the ball more than 150 times a season and was considered to be on the hot seat with the drafting of Stewart. Our two back system surprised everyone including Carolina Fans. Coming into this season defenses will respect our running backs and put 8 guys in the box. This kinda fits in with Jake's ability to throw the football.

With all that being said I don’t think that production will drop by 1,000 yards but I see something like:

Williams- 260 carries 1200 yards 14 TDs

Stewart- 200 carries 860 yards 8 TDs

I also think that Carolina will use Williams in more passing plays/screens and his total yards won’t be far off from last season. I think people are putting too much emphasize on the Schedule. Every year there are teams that surprise people (Falcons/Dolphins) and every year there are teams that disappoint. (Cowboys)

[ncbobcat]

That's not unrealistic and still pretty darn good numbers. With the schedule this season and all the things indicated above: health, the Jake question and surprise factor--I highly doubt D-Will can duplicate or improve his last season's numbers. If so, that man should be the NFC starting RB in the Pro Bowl!!!