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NFL's rising teams - analysis of last year

adub2b23

By adub2b23,
in Carolina Panthers

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adub2b23 Newbie

adub2b23

Posted
Posted

One of the better write up's I've read about last season.  There is more in the link.

 

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9632961/bill-barnwell-nfl-teams-better-2013

 

 

Look through those numbers and find the one that sticks out like a sore thumb. Why, yes, it's the 1-7 record in games decided by seven points or fewer! Keep in mind that those games included the following contests:

• The infamous game against the Falcons in which Ron Rivera punted on fourth-and-inches with a $90 million backfield and turned the game over to his defense, producing a 30-28 loss.

• A 16-12 loss to the Seahawks in which the Panthers threw the ball on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 3:47 left and failed.

• A one-point loss to the Bears in a game the Panthers led 19-7 with seven minutes to go and 22-20 with 2:32 to go.

• An overtime loss to the Buccaneers in a game the Panthers led 21-10 with 6:06 to go, which required an 80-yard drive for a touchdown and a two-point conversion from the Buccaneers in 1:02 with no timeouts.

That's three games in which Carolina had a win expectancy above 75 percent (peradvancednflstats.com) during the fourth quarter and one in which it was a yard away from taking the lead and decided not to run the ball. Now, I don't know that Carolina should have won all those games; comebacks happen, and Seattle might very well have driven down the field and won even after that fourth-and-1 conversion, had it happened. But the Panthers were 7-9 without winning any of those games. If they held on in two of them, they're 9-7 and on the verge of contending for a playoff berth. And if they get a little lucky and win all four of them, they're 11-5 and we're looking at Ron Rivera as a Coach of the Year candidate as opposed to a guy who might have been lucky to keep his job.

 

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Kurb Newbie

Kurb

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Posted

That's what's so frustrating for us as fans. Those that acutally take a second to study and read and try and understand seem to think the Panthers are soooo fuging close to becoming a power team, yet little things keep getting in the way. I swear it's been that way for as long as I can remember.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted

One of the better write up's I've read about last season.  There is more in the link.

 

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9632961/bill-barnwell-nfl-teams-better-2013

 

 

Look through those numbers and find the one that sticks out like a sore thumb. Why, yes, it's the 1-7 record in games decided by seven points or fewer! Keep in mind that those games included the following contests:

• The infamous game against the Falcons in which Ron Rivera punted on fourth-and-inches with a $90 million backfield and turned the game over to his defense, producing a 30-28 loss.

• A 16-12 loss to the Seahawks in which the Panthers threw the ball on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 3:47 left and failed.

• A one-point loss to the Bears in a game the Panthers led 19-7 with seven minutes to go and 22-20 with 2:32 to go.

• An overtime loss to the Buccaneers in a game the Panthers led 21-10 with 6:06 to go, which required an 80-yard drive for a touchdown and a two-point conversion from the Buccaneers in 1:02 with no timeouts.

That's three games in which Carolina had a win expectancy above 75 percent (peradvancednflstats.com) during the fourth quarter and one in which it was a yard away from taking the lead and decided not to run the ball. Now, I don't know that Carolina should have won all those games; comebacks happen, and Seattle might very well have driven down the field and won even after that fourth-and-1 conversion, had it happened. But the Panthers were 7-9 without winning any of those games. If they held on in two of them, they're 9-7 and on the verge of contending for a playoff berth. And if they get a little lucky and win all four of them, they're 11-5 and we're looking at Ron Rivera as a Coach of the Year candidate as opposed to a guy who might have been lucky to keep his job.

 

My therapist tells me that time will heal the damage these games caused.  Happy thoughts.  Happy thoughts.....

 

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jarhead Newbie

jarhead

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Posted

Hopefully it is an combination of inexperienced coaching decisions and bad luck, as opposed to simply a bad coach with bad underlying team chemistry.  

It was bad coaching coupled with bad execution ie Naka's broken coverage, Cam throwing like a 3 year old girl against Seattle and Norman playing 20 feet off against the Bears.

 

I just hope we can get into those positions to win again this year.

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

Posted
Posted

That's what's so frustrating for us as fans. Those that acutally take a second to study and read and try and understand seem to think the Panthers are soooo fuging close to becoming a power team, yet little things keep getting in the way. I swear it's been that way for as long as I can remember.

 

there was some interview with rivera i heard on wfnz during training camp that he mentioned those games like the falcons game and others that were lost in the last couple minutes and the outcome could have been been changed had he made a different call. he said that he thinks about those moments all the time and he constantly kicks himself for basically "what could have been if...". mostly he talked about those fourth down calls where he tried playing it safe when he should have been trusting his players.

 

i think he's probably sat down with gettleman and looked at each tape to see what could have been done better as far as his own decision making.

 

it was encouraging to me that at least he can recognize his mistakes and own up to them...that wasn't something i saw the last couple years from his.

 

as they say, knowing is half the battle but i always tag on to that a reminder that no battle half fought was ever won. he may know where he messed up and how and when he needs to be making better decisions, but as for actually making those calls in the heat of the moment....that remains to be seen. i'm hopefully he's turned a corner because that will be the thing that turns those close losses into close wins.

 

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

Posted
Posted

The thing is, hindsight is 20/20.  When that ball landed at the 1 yard line against Atlanta, I was like damn, Rivera must know what he's doing.  But then he does poo like call a timeout so the Saints can kick a FG and not call a timeout when the Bears are driving up and down the field at the end of the game to win it.

 

But overall, because after two years of losing close games, why should we think this year will be any different?  I expect more of the same this year.

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