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Hendo Gone?

kman72

By kman72,
in Charlotte Hornets

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CarolinaPanthers8789 Newbie

CarolinaPanthers8789

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Dont confuse me for someone who wants Ellis here, I'd much prefer the fit of Hendo, but that doesn't mean I think Hendo is the hands down better player..

Solid post. Sums up my feelings to a t though I would sign one for the right price. I wouldn't over commit to Hendo because he is what he is. If he wants "top 10 player at his position based on advance stats" $$$ then I don't see the value.

You continue to look at stats in a vacuum. Does any team even scout the Cats? We've both watched Hendo play the jury is still out on if he can score when teams aim to stop him. He is what he is. If maintains his positive trend he can be a good player and is well worth our interest but stats are just stats, they don't tell the whole story or even most of it.

- I'm looking at stats the way they are meant to be looked at... The idea of stats is to place players on level playing fields so you can see who is clearly better. I have combatted every post you have made with a statistic followed up by an opinion. If you want I could just be that prick that says I know more because I'm a sport management major with a minor in coaching that has taken top notch advanced statistics classes (but that just makes me an ass).

- I use stats because I don't want to sound like a dick and say I was there when Henderson dropped 35 points on the Celtics in 38 minutes while shooting 58% from the field...

- As far as teams scouting the Cats... I hope that wasn't a serious question because you never overlook a team.

- Teams will never be able to make Henderson the focal point of there defense (if he returns) now that the Cats have Jefferson to command a double team in the post there is literally no telling how good Henderson and Walker can be if they develop a consistent outside jump shot.

- Stats tell 50% of the story, that's why you never hear anyone say a player had a good game when scored 15 points but was 4-15 shooting and seven of his points came at the free throw line. For the other 50%, we use what we call the eye test. The eye test is used to to argue a players technical game. For example: Danny Green was one of the most impressive movers off the ball in the playoffs this year or Danny Green was one of the best transition defenders in the playoffs this season. Rich Cho developed an entire program on stats to help him and the team out when it comes to free agency in the draft. So to say that stats don't tell even half of the story would a false statement.

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CarolinaPanthers8789 Newbie

CarolinaPanthers8789

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I agree Pantone

It comes down to pricing. If hendo is wanting 10 mill or even 8-9 I'm saying no. He's not gonna get that from anyone IMO.

Same with ellis. I feels the better player at this stage in his career and will continue to be a scorer with bad defense. But am I wiling to give him 12-13 mill. Nah idk.

But yeah I want hendo back Bc he helps us out more and fits well with what we have. If only he could shoot lol. But not at that 10 mill price

Henderson has gotten a lot better at shooting. I won't use his two point field goal percentage because around 65% of his offense is within 15 feet of the basket, but Henderson did increase his three point percentage by .100 over these past two years. He currently sits at .330 from the perimeter which is way better than Ellis. I think Mark Price could get Henderson up to the .380 range and if he does, it's game over because teams would have to game plan for every facet of his game.

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ItsPantone278 Newbie

ItsPantone278

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- I'm looking at stats the way they are meant to be looked at... The idea of stats is to place players on level playing fields so you can see who is clearly better. I have combatted every post you have made with a statistic followed up by an opinion. If you want I could just be that prick that says I know more because I'm a sport management major with a minor in coaching that has taken top notch advanced statistics classes (but that just makes me an ass).

- I use stats because I don't want to sound like a dick and say I was there when Henderson dropped 35 points on the Celtics in 38 minutes while shooting 58% from the field...

- As far as teams scouting the Cats... I hope that wasn't a serious question because you never overlook a team.

- Teams will never be able to make Henderson the focal point of there defense (if he returns) now that the Cats have Jefferson to command a double team in the post there is literally no telling how good Henderson and Walker can be if they develop a consistent outside jump shot.

- Stats tell 50% of the story, that's why you never hear anyone say a player had a good game when scored 15 points but was 4-15 shooting and seven of his points came at the free throw line. For the other 50%, we use what we call the eye test. The eye test is used to to argue a players technical game. For example: Danny Green was one of the most impressive movers off the ball in the playoffs this year or Danny Green was one of the best transition defenders in the playoffs this season. Rich Cho developed an entire program on stats to help him and the team out when it comes to free agency in the draft. So to say that stats don't tell even half of the story would a false statement.

 

Not only are those two points that I have bold contradictory statements but the first point in bold couldn't be farther from the truth and is exactly what I am arguing with you.  You can't put two players on level playing fields.  You can only use stats as a part of your evaluation. 

 

I guess you are far too educated to be wrong about anything.  Rankings are subjective, especially when even the most advance statistics can hardly differentiate.  Stats don't tell you how teams play you, advance stats don't take the time to consider every schedule or match up and there is no way to level this fact.  I could tell you I was there for every game the year Ellis averaged 25 and 5 but what the hell does that matter(does it even matter to you if that statement is true and you see what I mean)?  Stats are great for some comparison but my only argument has been that they don't tell the whole story and you finally without realizing it agreed with the last bold point.

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CarolinaPanthers8789 Newbie

CarolinaPanthers8789

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Not only are those two points that I have bold contradictory statements but the first point in bold couldn't be farther from the truth and is exactly what I am arguing with you. You can't put two players on level playing fields. You can only use stats as a part of your evaluation.

I guess you are far too educated to be wrong about anything. Rankings are subjective, especially when even the most advance statistics can hardly differentiate. Stats don't tell you how teams play you, advance stats don't take the time to consider every schedule or match up and there is no way to level this fact. I could tell you I was there for every game the year Ellis averaged 25 and 5 but what the hell does that matter(does it even matter to you if that statement is true and you see what I mean)? Stats are great for some comparison but my only argument has been that they don't tell the whole story and you finally without realizing it agreed with the last bold point.

Lol they don't contradict each other at all.

- Stats are there so you can compare players... simple as that. When one player has only played four seasons and the other has played nine you can't compare their career stats... so what do we do... we try to level the playing field by using multiple scenarios based on minutes per game, shot attempts, games played, common games played etc... It makes perfect sense.

- No where did I say I used stats as my full evaluation, I said I used about 50% of it as my full evaluation... to be precise.

- You are correct about one thing, many rankings are subjective which is why we (I run stats for a football team) make multiple scenarios to get the full idea.

- There is a way to look at matchups and schedules, it's this simple thing called common opponents (it's especially easy when a team is in the same conference because there are more common opponents). When you do simulations, they are based on advanced stats, so all we have do is run multiple simulations (around 1,000) on common opponents.

- As far as how teams play, you will get no where with that argument because most coaches tell me that their best players force the action. If a team has a good coach, they will play around what suits their better players.

- I even said stats only tell 50% of the story, please tell me where I said I base my full evaluation on stats. I'm dying to know so I can edit that post.

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CarolinaPanthers8789 Newbie

CarolinaPanthers8789

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My final statement would be that Ellis has had the better career (obviously), but over the past two years; Henderson has been the better player. This leads me to believe that he is currently the better player.

I don't think we have to argue "better fit" because I'm pretty sure we're in agreement on that.

I also want you to know that I'm a Tar Heel fan, it's not like I'm some Dookie that acts the same way the Armanti Edwards fan boys do. I also still have a special place in my heart for Henderson because he's still a dick for punching Hansbrough... but at the end of the day, I recognize him as a very solid basketball player.

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ItsPantone278 Newbie

ItsPantone278

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8789  you consistently used stats to say one player was clearly better than another, while I tried to find different ways to show you that stats don't tell the whole story.  By the end of it we agreed that stats don't tell the whole story and you expressed your stance with out using them.  I can say I pretty much agree with your final statement almost 100% my only reserve is that Ellis has been a league leader in scoring and is still relatively young for having played 9 years.  A better situation and good coaching and he could be an asset to the team if he were to sign but thats obviously optimism if it were the case.  If Henderson continues to trend positive while Ellis continues to trend negative I could agree with you 100%, too soon to tell right now in my opinion.  As of now I'd still take the large sample size that is Ellis career than Hendo's relatively smaller sample size playing 35+ mins

 

ETA: to clarify that is solely comparing Hendo and Ellis as players, not their fit for our team or any other for that matter. 

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CarolinaPanthers8789 Newbie

CarolinaPanthers8789

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The only reason I use stats to base most of argument off of is because it's hard to argue team fits, the way teams play, the way teams mesh etc... without currently seeing the two players go head to head.

It's particularly hard to argue Henderson vs. Ellis because you don't know which position Ellis is going to play.

Henderson and Ellis were on the floor at the same time three seperate times this year, but only once was it when they were both playing the two guard. Henderson outperformed Ellis that night but you can't base an argument on one night which is why you have to run the multiple scenario combination about 1,000 times and I don't have any of that software on my home computer.

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