Could our offense be competitive with the Saints and the Falcons O?

[N'wahlinsCayenne]

Ok, just for fun, I did a little research, dating back to 1979. Here's the S.B. winners and their running, passing and defense (yards allowed and points allowed) rankings for the regular season of that year.

1979, Steelers, 2nd in passing, 2nd in rushing, 2nd in defense(total yards), fifth in defense(points)

1980, Raiders, 19th passing, 10th rushing, 11th in defense(yards), 10th in defense(points)

1981, 49ers, 7th passing, 19th rushing, 2nd defense (yards), 2nd in defense(points)

1982, Redskins, 12th passing, 10th rushing, 4th defense (yards), 1st in defense (points)

1983, Raiders, 9th passing, 10th rushing, 4th defense (yards), 13th in defense (points)

1984, 49ers, 4th passing, 3rd rushing, 10th defense (yards), 1st in defense (points)

1985, Bears, 20th passing, 1st rushing, 1st defense (yards), 1st in defense (points)

1986, Giants, 17th passing, 6th rushing, 2nd defense (yards), 2nd in defense (points)

1987, Redskins, 4th passing, 7th rushing, 18th defense(yards), 6th in defense (points)

1988, 49ers, 10th passing, 2nd rushing, 3rd defense (yards), 8th in defense (points)

1989, 49ers, 2nd passing, 10th rushing, 4th defense (yards), 3rd in defense (points)

1990, Giants, 22nd passing, 8th rushing, 2nd defense (yards), 1st in defense (points)

1991, Redskins, 5th passing, 7th rushing, 3rd defense(yards), 2nd defense (points)

1992, Cowboys, 5th passing, 5th rushing, 1st defense(yards), 5th defense (points)

1993, Cowboys, 7th passing, 2nd rushing, 10th defense(yards), 2nd defense (points)

1994, 49ers, 4th passing, 6th rushing, 8th defense(yards), 6th defense (points)

1995, Cowboys, 13th passing, 2nd rushing, 9th defense (yards), 3rd defense (points)

1996, Packers, 5th passing, 11th rushing, 1st defense (yards), 1st defense (points)

1997, Broncos, 9th passing, 4th rushing, 5th defense(yards), 6th defense (points)

1998, Broncos, 7th passing, 2nd rushing, 11th defense(yards), 8th defense (points)

1999, Rams, 1st passing, 5th rushing, 6th defense(yards), 4th defense (points)

2000, Ravens, 22nd passing, 5th rushing, 2nd defense(yards), 1st defense (points)

2001, Patriots, 22nd passing, 13th rushing, 24th defense(yards), 6th defense (points)

2002, Buccaneers, 15th passing, 27th rushing, 1st defense(yards), 1st defense (points)

2003, Patriots, 9th passing, 27th rushing, 7th defense(yards), 1st defense (points)

2004, Patriots, 11th passing, 7th rushing, 9th defense(yards), 2nd defense (points)

2005, Steelers, 24th passing, 5th rushing, 4th defense(yards), 3rd defense (points)

2006, Colts, 2nd passing, 18th rushing, 21st defense(yards), 23rd defense (points)

2007, Giants, 21st passing, 4th rushing, 7th defense(yards), 17th defense (points)

2008, Steelers, 17th passing, 23rd rushing, 1st defense(yards), 1st defense (points)

So the average passing and rushing ranking of a S.B. winner over the past 30 years is 11th passing and 9th rushing. So there's a slight edge there for teams with better running games than passing games. Keep in my mind though that when a team has a good running game, it shortens the game and allows for less passing. To me it was surprising that only twice has a team first in either offensive category gone on to win a title, but this is really a wash as far as I'm concerned.

The real fact to take away from this list is that defense does win championships. The average S.B. winner had a 6.43 ranking for yardage allowed in the regular season. Only 5 times in 30 years did a team finishing out of the top 10 defensively take home the Lombardi. And keep in mind that the Colts played much better defensively in the playoffs of 2006 than their 21st-ranked regular season defense performed, mostly because of the return of Bob Sanders to the field following injury. So I guess the old adage still rings true today.

[Fireball77]

Any ranking of a D by yards alone, I throw out. No offense meant to you dude because I know you took some time to do this. Who cares about yards allowed if they allow POINTS.

I think Sanders was a factor but the real improvement was their gap discipline.

[N'wahlinsCayenne]

Any ranking of a D by yards alone, I throw out. No offense meant to you dude because I know you took some time to do this. Who cares about yards allowed if they allow POINTS.

I think Sanders was a factor but the real improvement was their gap discipline.

No problem, I'll add points allowed as well. Nothing better to do today. The one thing I hate about the points allowed stat, though, is that defensive TD's against the offense are counted against the defense.

[Fireball77]

You are right about that, it sucks. I have long said that I would love to see that broken out. ST touchdowns, and TDs the defense scores also.

[phidelt649]

While Rushing ranked 9th and Passing ranked 11th, that doesn't really mean that Rushing had a "slight advantage." Those teams had excellent passing BECAUSE the rushing opened up the passing game. You make a team one dimensional by forcing them to air out the ball and it is game over.

I would love to see a win-loss record of teams with high flying pass attacks/ low run games

[N'wahlinsCayenne]

I just added it, Fireball, and the biggest discrepancy I could see came from the New England Patriots. No matter what they ranked defensively, they never ranked below 6th in points allowed in the S.B. seasons. They ranked 24th in defensive yardage in 2001, but managed a #6 ranking in points allowed that year. Amazing.

[Fireball77]

Yep, D wins Cs, even with a guy I consider to be the best QB I have ever seen play. That 2001 team was probably the least "talented" team ever to win a SB that I remember. They had dumped a bunch of guys and brought in a bunch of low paid FAs in 2000. And consider with one of the most dominant offenses ever, and that same guy @ QB, they had a below average D (they weren't playmakers either like they were in their best years), and couldn't overcome it when their O got housed by the NYG DL. When you rely strictly on offense to win, you may have a decent/good regular season but chances are you will fizzle in the postseason if that D does not step up and outperform it's season average.

[N'wahlinsCayenne]

While Rushing ranked 9th and Passing ranked 11th, that doesn't really mean that Rushing had a "slight advantage."

You're correct. Besides the '81 49ers and the '06 Colts, you're statement holds true. Where I disagree, is I think a team with an excellent running game limits the production from passing since the games are shortened. so even though the stats show you are correct, I would argue that passing offense would be much higher ranked for these teams had their RB not been milking the clock for many of their games.

[phidelt649]

You're correct. Besides the '81 49ers and the '06 Colts, you're statement holds true. Where I disagree, is I think a team with an excellent running game limits the production from passing since the games are shortened. so even though the stats show you are correct, I would argue that passing offense would be much higher ranked for these teams had their RB not been milking the clock for many of their games.

I would concede that, but I would also state that their amount of turnovers and points allowed would also go up.

[N'wahlinsCayenne]

Ok, since many on here are mentioning defensive yards per play as a telling stat (and I agree), here's the rankings of the same teams over the same 30-year period concerning DEF yards per play:

1979, Steelers, 2nd

1980, Raiders, 6th

1981, 49ers, 3rd

1982, Redskins, 7th

1983, Raiders, 3rd

1984, 49ers, 13th (tied with 2 other teams)

1985, Bears, 2nd

1986, Giants, 8th

1987, Redskins, 11th(tied with 2 other teams)

1988, 49ers, 3rd

1989, 49ers, 6th

1990, Giants, 2nd

1991, Redskins, 3rd

1992, Cowboys, 2nd (Saints were #1)

1993, Cowboys, 8th

1994, 49ers, 9th

1995, Cowboys, 10th (tied with three other teams)

1996, Packers, 1st

1997, Broncos, 12th (tied with 2 other teams)

1998, Broncos, 8th (tied with 4 other teams)

1999, Rams, 6th (tied with one other)

2000, Ravens, 2nd

2001, Patriots, 21st

2002, Buccaneers, 1st

2003, Patriots, 4th

2004, Patriots, 9th

2005, Steelers, 2nd

2006, Colts, 29th

2007, Giants, 8th

2008, Steelers, 1st

No teams, with the exceptions of the '01 Patriots and the '06 Colts, finished below 13th in yards allowed per play. And 83% of them finished in the top 10 in this category, and 47% finished in the Top 5. Now this stat is telling because it totally eliminates other parts of the game and solely targets defense in my opinion.

[MadHatter]

Ok, since many on here are mentioning defensive yards per play as a telling stat (and I agree), here's the rankings of the same teams over the same 30-year period concerning DEF yards per play:

1979, Steelers, 2nd

1980, Raiders, 6th

1981, 49ers, 3rd

1982, Redskins, 7th

1983, Raiders, 3rd

1984, 49ers, 13th (tied with 2 other teams)

1985, Bears, 2nd

1986, Giants, 8th

1987, Redskins, 11th(tied with 2 other teams)

1988, 49ers, 3rd

1989, 49ers, 6th

1990, Giants, 2nd

1991, Redskins, 3rd

1992, Cowboys, 2nd (Saints were #1)

1993, Cowboys, 8th

1994, 49ers, 9th

1995, Cowboys, 10th (tied with three other teams)

1996, Packers, 1st

1997, Broncos, 12th (tied with 2 other teams)

1998, Broncos, 8th (tied with 4 other teams)

1999, Rams, 6th (tied with one other)

2000, Ravens, 2nd

2001, Patriots, 21st

2002, Buccaneers, 1st

2003, Patriots, 4th

2004, Patriots, 9th

2005, Steelers, 2nd

2006, Colts, 29th

2007, Giants, 8th

2008, Steelers, 1st

No teams, with the exceptions of the '01 Patriots and the '06 Colts, finished below 13th in yards allowed per play. And 83% of them finished in the top 10 in this category, and 47% finished in the Top 5. Now this stat is telling because it totally eliminates other parts of the game and solely targets defense in my opinion.

And also remember that the Colts defense in '06 REALLY stepped it up and played lights out in the playoffs and SB.

Defense wins championships.

[monstercat]

When you're talking about the 06 Colts though, you have to divide their defense into two categories...regular season and post season. They gave up a butt load of rushing yardage in the regular season, but then shut everybody down in the post season. It was like night and day.

[N'wahlinsCayenne]

When you're talking about the 06 Colts though, you have to divide their defense into two categories...regular season and post season. They gave up a butt load of rushing yardage in the regular season, but then shut everybody down in the post season. It was like night and day.

The Colts gave up 1.2 yards less per carry in the postseason than the regular season. They still gave up 4.1 yards per carry in the postseason, which was 8th-best among playoff teams. Still it was a significant improvement. I mentioned that in my original post with all the defensive and offensive rankings.

[N'wahlinsCayenne]

What do you guys read from these numbers? I reposted the defensive yards per play and added the total offensive yard rankings.

1979, Steelers, 2nd DEF yards/play; 1st OFF yards per game

1980, Raiders, 6th DEF yards/play, 16th OFF yards per game

1981, 49ers, 3rd DEF yards/play, 13th OFF yards per game

1982, Redskins, 7th DEF yards/play, 7th OFF yards per game

1983, Raiders, 3rd DEF yards/play, 7th OFF yards per game

1984, 49ers, 13th DEF yards/play(tied with 2 other teams), 2nd OFF yards per game

1985, Bears, 2nd DEF yards/play, 7th OFF yards per game

1986, Giants, 8th DEF yards/play, 10th OFF yards per game

1987, Redskins, 11th DEF yards/play(tied with 2 other teams), 3rd OFF yards per game

1988, 49ers, 3rd DEF yards/play, 2nd OFF yards per game

1989, 49ers, 6th DEF yards/play, 1st OFF yards per game

1990, Giants, 2nd DEF yards/play, 17th OFF yards per game

1991, Redskins, 3rd DEF yards/play, 4th OFF yards per game

1992, Cowboys, 2nd DEF yards/play (Saints were #1), 4th OFF yards per game

1993, Cowboys, 8th DEF yards/play, 4th OFF yards per game

1994, 49ers, 9th DEF yards/play, 2nd OFF yards per game

1995, Cowboys, 10th DEF yards/play(tied with three other teams), 5th OFF yards per game

1996, Packers, 1st DEF yards/play, 5th OFF yards per game

1997, Broncos, 12th DEF yards/play(tied with 2 other teams), 1st OFF yards per game

1998, Broncos, 8th DEF yards/play (tied with 4 other teams), 3rd OFF yards per game

1999, Rams, 6th DEF yards/play(tied with one other), 1st OFF yards per game

2000, Ravens, 2nd DEF yards/play, 16th OFF yards per game

2001, Patriots, 21st DEF yards/play, 19th OFF yards per game

2002, Buccaneers, 1st DEF yards/play, 24th OFF yards per game

2003, Patriots, 4th DEF yards/play, 17th OFF yards per game

2004, Patriots, 9th DEF yards/play, 7th OFF yards per game

2005, Steelers, 2nd DEF yards/play, 15th OFF yards per game

2006, Colts, 29th DEF yards/play, 3rd OFF yards per game

2007, Giants, 8th DEF yards/play, 16th OFF yards per game

2008, Steelers, 1st DEF yards/play, 22nd OFF yards per game

The trend I see here is that early in the 30-year period, there were many more teams who finished in the Top 10 in offense than those in the second half of the period. All in all, 10 out of the 30 teams finished 13th or worse in offensive ranking.