Drafting a Guard in the first round

[MHS831]

First, good point about Davidson.

Second, the Steelers draft a guard in round 1. I'd say the Steelers are quite successful, no?

At 14, who would be better than Warmack? Who would make the biggest impact? This draft is weak at the top, so a dominant G is not ridiculous. I hate drafting a G first, but i see it.

[Peppers90 NC]

Warmack and Cooper must be special, looking at some mocks and they are going top 10 according to quite a few

[MHS831]

Very well put.The new CBA facilitates a team to pay less for the most expensive positions under the rookie contract.The cap differential is to great for GM's to ignore.

THanks jarhead. I just think we think only about needs in 2013, not about cost, cap, and the future as much. It makes my brain hurt.

[jarhead]

Warmack and Cooper must be special, looking at some mocks and they are going top 10 according to quite a few

Where they are projected and when they will picked are often different.

[kman72]

You take the best player available... Warmack will be a 12 yr starter in this league. The only position I would consider taking over Warmack would be a Future LT (Johnson) he isn't going to fall past San Diego. There are no other players that are a sure thing, ill take a stud over a bust any day.

[Peppers90 NC]

Where they are projected and when they will picked are often different.

of course, but that's besides the point

[Growl]

lol since when was the draft about taking a "sure thing"

It's about making your team as good as possible. Not "zomg we can't risk drafting a bust! I'm so scared of busts! I cry every night over the Thought of drafting a bust!!"

It's fairly simple really, when you run a Marty Hurney drafting approach that is designed to take the SPA (Safest Player Available) you build an organization that is going to constantly hit 7-9.

When you draft to make your team as good as possible, you take your lumps, but the bang you get from selecting good players at valuable positions equals perennial success.

You take the best player available... Warmack will be a 12 yr starter in this league. The only position I would consider taking over Warmack would be a Future LT (Johnson) he isn't going to fall past San Diego. There are no other players that are a sure thing, ill take a stud over a bust any day.

[Mr. Scot]

I'm not a fan of the whole "you don't draft this position at this level" mindset. There are exceptiopns (taking a kicker at #1 overall, for example) but generally speaking, I say if you think Player X is the best guy to take at your spot, then take him.

[rayzor]

I agree too. However, the first round this year really sucks compared to previous years. Maybe I am wrong here, but i look at it this way:

If I can draft a top CB, DE, LOT, or QB in the first, then that is five years I am not having to pay a player on a second contract at that position. Some DEs make $15 million, for example. No Guards do. A solid G runs you about $5-7 million on a second contract.

We can have 2 starting veteran guards for the same price one DE is paid.

So basically, I am suggesting that you have one DE, DT,and CB on a rookie contract at all times. If not, you run the risk of having 20% of your salary cap at one position that is NOT QB.

Next year, we could be sitting at the negotiating table with Greg Hardy's agent, who will be throwing Charles Johnson's contract at Gettlemen. If he comes close to getting CJ $$, we are talking about $22 million for defensive ends.

By playing one DE on a rookie deal at all times, your DE expense is about $8 million cheaper. hypothetically, the DE plays out the 5 year rookie contract while his counterpart enters a 5-year second contract. The savings, $8 million or so, is enough to pay for 2 veteran guards on second contracts.

I realize that it is not that easy, but the concept is solid.

Do the same thing at CB. One second contract, one rookie deal. When the CB hits 30, re-sign your player on a rookie contract to a second contract and draft a rookie.

Do the same thing at DT.

Do the same thing at WR. Essentially--and extremely hypothetically--you draft one of these key positions most years. Marty did not do this--he neglected CB, WR, DT, and even QB. Instead, he drafted safe, easy-to-find positions like RB (2), OL, LB most recently.

So, essentially, your first rounders are loosely restricted to a few, expensive positions, unless a player is overwhelmingly better than the rest.

Chance Warmack could be that exception. However, I KNOW some starting-quality rookie Guards will drop to the fourth round.

SOLID post and totally agreed. great concept.

and solid guards always drop because it's just not a premium position. if you scout well, you find those guys.

[kman72]

lol since when was the draft about taking a "sure thing"

It's about making your team as good as possible. Not "zomg we can't risk drafting a bust! I'm so scared of busts! I cry every night over the Thought of drafting a bust!!"

It's fairly simple really, when you run a Marty Hurney drafting approach that is designed to take the SPA (Safest Player Available) you build an organization that is going to constantly hit 7-9.

When you draft to make your team as good as possible, you take your lumps, but the bang you get from selecting good players at valuable positions equals perennial success.

There have always been such thing as a sure thing. It gets complicated when you look at a prospect and attempt to place a trouble word on it. That word is called "Potential"

There is a time and place to take risk with a boom or bust player, Cam Newton for example was a risk/reward pick that we needed at the time. We were in serious trouble as a franchise without a QB and he was the player with most POTENTIAL to change the franchise.

This year if Warmack is there he fits a huge need and would be the BPA. You cant look at where a player should go, look at if he helps your team and go with it.

[rayzor]

I'm not a fan of the whole "you don't draft this position at this level" mindset. There are exceptiopns (taking a kicker at #1 overall, for example) but generally speaking, I say if you think Player X is the best guy to take at your spot, then take him.

it can never and should never be as simple as just that.

need must be accounted for in that decision...like if the BPA is a MLB or a QB or an RB...do we really take one over DT, CB, WR, FS, etc.?

also, what is my board looking like for that position later? can i find someone of nearly equal value later? is there a thinner grouping for this position than others?

is this position as crucial for the team as others, esp. crucial enough to warrant this early selection?

there's just too many factors to take in.

[BigSyke]

my list to a good offense

1.qb(cam newton)

2.oline(star left tackle first priority)

3.star deep threat wr1+wr2(harrison/wayne)

4.slot wr(quick+good route runner+sure hands)/te(catch+block+tall mismatch in redzone)

5.rb(good vision+ game speed+ break tackles+catch out of backfield)

[The Huddler]

Im tired of seeing our RBs get smacked in the backfield. We need OL. Im cool with Warmack

[PrettyKitty]

Well, I think this discussion is all for naught; Warmack will be gone before pick 15 comes around....Any other guard available is not worth the 15th pick, IMO...