Why is it all Rivera's fault?

[Bob NC]

We're hiring a guy to build this team into that kind of system, and it doesn't happen overnight.

We've been waiting about 3,700 night now, it sure doesn't happen overnight.

[panthers55]

I don't think that anyone thinks that if we keep Rivera it is fine to win in 2 or 3 years. I think most everyone would think that next year is a put up or shut up season. So you could reason that this was year 3 and we are fine with that. But you would be wrong. Who isn't disappointed with this season? Who expected to win?? I did.....

The difference is that I think that next year we will be in the playoffs. I think we were a half dozen plays from being there this year. And honestly I can name at least 3 or 4 plays where the coaches made the exact right call and the players failed to execute. Did the coaches also screw up at times and make mistakes?? Yes.... Frankly I think that we are a playoff caliber team that didn't know how to close or win close games. I don't think that will be repeated.

So I am fine with Rivera for another year and expect us to make the playoffs in 2013. That is the issue. The past 2 years are history at this point. For me the question is whether Rivera can build a winner with the current talent and make the playoffs. I think he can and others think he can't. I am okay with that...............

[panthers55]

I charted maybe the first 6 or 7 games this year and compared them to similar matchups last year. I started several threads here in which I presented the data. So no, I'm not just talking out of my ass.

The last one I remember off the top of my head was following the Denver game. In that one, I showed that our one scoring drive in the first half featured a heavy use of under center I formation plays. It was our 2nd possession if I remember correctly. The rest of the half, we went back to almost exclusively shotgun plays with a heavy reliance on the read option. Chud did then make some adjustments after the half, but by that time it was too late as Denver was up big and killing us with the pass rush.

I just found some of my data...

This is from the 1st Atlanta game this year:

48 plays from the gun

13 plays under center

21 read option runs

8 I formation plays

These are from the Minnesota game last year:

39 shotgun plays

23 under center plays

11 I formation runs

3 read option runs

See the difference?

Good work. Since we were installing the offense until week 10 last year, how did the use of the read option change from lets say weeks 12-16 versus the start of this year. Seems we ran a lot more read option after the bye. I don't know maybe I just made it up.....

[Cyberjag]

So I am fine with Rivera for another year and expect us to make the playoffs in 2013. That is the issue. The past 2 years are history at this point. For me the question is whether Rivera can build a winner with the current talent and make the playoffs. I think he can and others think he can't. I am okay with that...............

You know I completely respect your opinion. I'm not going to be too terribly upset if we keep him, but I think that history paints a bleak picture for our chances of sustained success if we do. Maybe the year one argument is valid, and we should treat 2013 as Rivera's year two. I just want to win, and I also worry that if Rivera gets us to 9-7 or 10-6 next year we may be back on the same old win/lose/win/lose pattern--truly great coaches just win all the time, they don't need years to get there.

One more thing I'm really interested in is what it will say regarding personnel control if Rivera is retained by Richardson.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

2 winning seasons is only a couple years away.

Belief of the typical Panthers fan in a nutshell.

JR: "Tell me about it! That is all I heard from Hurney for over a decade."

[panthers55]

The Steelers of the 80s looked exactly like the Panthers of the 00s, and Cowher took over and they started winning regularly and immediately.

The Patriots were winners before Belichick got there, it's arguable that they started winning under Parcells, and he also started winning in his second year there.

There just aren't any good examples of people who did it with this "build a winner over time" mentality. Good coaches just about always start winning right out of the gate. Coaches who put together multiple winning seasons in a row just about always do. I've looked, and I can't find an example in modern era football where a coach built a streak of those multiple winning seasons and wasn't winning by year two.

Maybe you can help me out there? I can give you a bunch of coaches who won right away for every one you mention.

I think you have to ask a different question. How long did it take for a coach to turn around a team that was decimated of talent, had a poor defense and no franchise quarterback?? Unless a team is going to out and try to buy themselves a better team through free agency, doing through the draft takes time.

I don't think this is a name how many did it in 2 years versus those that didn't, but I think we were a lot like Dallas when Jimmy Johnson took over. He took 3 years to win and in year 4 he won a Super bowl.

He had the good fortune of being able to trade Hershel Walker for a ton of picks to accelerate the process. Still he had to get a franchise QB and train him, build back the offense and defense and establish his system and culture.

I think Rivera is trying to do the same thing without having the advantage of a winning culture which is what Johnson had following Landry. I think we are on the cusp of something very good.

I am sure it just me.................

[Mr. Scot]

The Steelers of the 80s looked exactly like the Panthers of the 00s, and Cowher took over and they started winning regularly and immediately.

The Patriots were winners before Belichick got there, it's arguable that they started winning under Parcells, and he also started winning in his second year there.

There just aren't any good examples of people who did it with this "build a winner over time" mentality. Good coaches just about always start winning right out of the gate. Coaches who put together multiple winning seasons in a row just about always do. I've looked, and I can't find an example in modern era football where a coach built a streak of those multiple winning seasons and wasn't winning by year two.

Maybe you can help me out there? I can give you a bunch of coaches who won right away for every one you mention.

The right coach is an important cog in the system. He is not the sole component.

When you look at the Panthers system, scouting, etc. can you honestly tell me the only thing missing for us to become perennial winners is the right head coach?

[panthers55]

You know I completely respect your opinion. I'm not going to be too terribly upset if we keep him, but I think that history paints a bleak picture for our chances of sustained success if we do. Maybe the year one argument is valid, and we should treat 2013 as Rivera's year two. I just want to win, and I also worry that if Rivera gets us to 9-7 or 10-6 next year we may be back on the same old win/lose/win/lose pattern--truly great coaches just win all the time, they don't need years to get there.

One more thing I'm really interested in is what it will say regarding personnel control if Rivera is retained by Richardson.

I think if Rivera gets us to 9-7 or 10-6, that will be better than most teams in the league and if it makes the playoffs, then it was a great job. Not sure why that would bring up back to a win/lose cycle.

BTW, how many great coaches are out there waiting to snap up the Panthers job if Rivera is fired. Who says the great ones don't go to Philly or somewhere else so that we end up with a retread or another unproven commodity?? I am sure that if Richardson knew who these great guys were who would win every year, we would have hired them 2 years ago or certainly now. Maybe it is only easy to see who they are in hindsight not foresight.

[Marguide]

Good work. Since we were installing the offense until week 10 last year, how did the use of the read option change from lets say weeks 12-16 versus the start of this year. Seems we ran a lot more read option after the bye. I don't know maybe I just made it up.....

I didn't chart any of the final games of last year, but going off memory, I think we tore Tampa up with the read option. That may be what drove Chud to go to it so hard starting this year. Unfortunately, our success with it last year probably had more to do with how bad Tampa was than how great our scheme was.

I like what Washington has done with the pistol this year, and Chud was incorporating some of that toward the end of this year. More than anything though, imo, Chud just needs to show more patience with the run game. He would give up on the run very quickly early this year, so the o-line never got in a rhythm. Combine that with a lot of slow developing routes, and people could just tee off on us.

I just hope he's learned his lesson and doesn't forget it over the offseason. All he needs as a refresher is this week's game. I think we ran the read option 3 times all day. Cam ran a lot of play action from under center. Balance still works in today's NFL (at least for the team we can put on the field right now).

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Don't think anyone believes the only reason for the Panthers dismal record is Ron Rivera.

Too much goes into building a winning organization for that type of thinking to be taken seriously.

However, there is good reason to think Ron may not be the answer to the question: What is it going to take to get the Panthers back into the playoffs on a regular basis?

For example: It is absolutely pathetic to watch a team ill prepared to compete and wasting half a season on a failed offensive approach.

A promising head coach shouldn't need an owner to light a fire under his ass before aggressively addressing that failure.

[Mr. Scot]

Don't think anyone believes the only reason for the Panthers dismal record is Ron Rivera.

Too much goes into building a winning organization for that type of thinking to be taken seriously.

However, there is good reason to think Ron is may not be the answer to the question: What is it going to take to get the Panthers back into the playoffs on a regular basis?

For example: It is absolutely pathetic to watch a team ill prepared to compete and wasting half a season on a failed offensive approach.

A promising head coach shouldn't need an owner to light a fire under his ass before aggressively addressing that failure.

That's kind of the whole question. Is the coach the main issue or is it the system that Marty Hurney built?

Be pretty tough at this point to not say that Hurney deserves a significant helping of blame.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

That's kind of the whole question. Is the coach the main issue or is it the system that Marty Hurney built?

Be pretty tough at this point to not say Hurney deserves significant blame.

John Fox is also strengthening this argument by being so successful in Denver.

[Cyberjag]

I think you have to ask a different question. How long did it take for a coach to turn around a team that was decimated of talent, had a poor defense and no franchise quarterback?? Unless a team is going to out and try to buy themselves a better team through free agency, doing through the draft takes time.

I don't think this is a name how many did it in 2 years versus those that didn't, but I think we were a lot like Dallas when Jimmy Johnson took over. He took 3 years to win and in year 4 he won a Super bowl.

He had the good fortune of being able to trade Hershel Walker for a ton of picks to accelerate the process. Still he had to get a franchise QB and train him, build back the offense and defense and establish his system and culture.

I think Rivera is trying to do the same thing without having the advantage of a winning culture which is what Johnson had following Landry. I think we are on the cusp of something very good.

I am sure it just me.................

It may be, but I think Mr Scot wants you to be right. :)

JJ didn't have free agency. There's a reason I've added a modern era qualifier to my questions. Prior to free agency, the model you and many others prefer was pretty much the only way to build a consistent winner.

I think the only reason it's not a question of whether there are any coaches that didn't do it in two years but built sustained success is because there aren't any. Or maybe there's one, maybe two. I sure didn't find them when I went and looked, and neither you nor Scot is able to come up with one.

So what we're all hoping for here, is that if Rivera stays, he becomes the first one to do it. It could happen. :)

[Cyberjag]

The right coach is an important cog in the system. He is not the sole component.

When you look at the Panthers system, scouting, etc. can you honestly tell me the only thing missing for us to become perennial winners is the right head coach?

The QB is pretty important too, but we all know that Jimmy Clausen isn't going to lead us to the promised land.

And I can't tell you the only thing missing is the right head coach, but I can tell you that I think we have the wrong one. I can also tell you that there are many examples of coaches that players love who just couldn't get it done in their first couple of years that ultimately failed to produce a consistent winner. I can't find ANY examples of those sorts of coaches who did produce a consistent winner in the modern era. And neither can you.

But hey, Rivera has us playing well in December! First time for everything, right? :)