Pro Football Weekly hearing Chip Kelly to the Panthers

[KJ89]

I think Kelly is a guy who could fully maximize the team and Cam's potential, in his modern read-option way, like a really refined version of what we've got going on now. Something that won't happen with Rivera and Chud behind the wheel.

I would personally like Kelly far more than most of our other options.

Rayzor's points are solid, and I agree with all of them.

[raleigh-panther]

If it is Kelly, he best be finding himself a great d-coordinator.

[Matthias]

Come on. Who actually thinks that Kelly would run the exact same offense that he does in college? BTW Kellys offense is very run heavy as well.

The thing is Kelly runs his running backs out of the read option. That works well when you're playing against the Pac 12. Yet this is the NFL. If you want to run in the NFL, you need your backs to have vision and a running start toward the line. That doesn't happen in the read option. (Of course if you run the read option out of the pistol formation like Washington does, that would be closer to running in the traditional way) Also the best rushing attacks in the NFL, all have fullbacks leading the way. Clearly something we have missed ever since Hoover retired.

I'm a little surprised that many want to hire a guy who runs the read option as his main offense, right after wasting away this year running the exact same thing. Have we learn nothing from this season?

Also, he most certainly will run the Oregon offense here in Carolina.

[MtnJax]

The thing is Kelly runs his running backs out of the read option. That works well when you're playing against the Pac 12. Yet this is the NFL. If you want to run in the NFL, you need your backs to have vision and a running start toward the line. That doesn't happen in the read option. (Of course if you run the read option out of the pistol formation like Washington does, that would be closer to running in the traditional way) Also the best rushing attacks in the NFL, all have fullbacks leading the way. Clearly something we have missed ever since Hoover retired.

I'm a little surprised that many want to hire a guy who runs the read option as his main offense, right after wasting away this year running the exact same thing. Have we learn nothing from this season?

Also, he most certainly will run the Oregon offense here in Carolina.

Jonathan Stewart seemed to do OK in that style of offense. So much so, he was a first round draft pick

[rayzor]

kelly's zone read offense is a lot more complicated than the others that you might see. and while it is considered their base...that's not everything they do.

they start off with the zone read option to establish the passing game. it's a run first offense. remember just a couple years ago they were running an average of 300 yards per game. they use the run game to set up the pass. they use their zone read option to get the passing game established. once they do that, they start mixing it up. they'll add in play action (yes, they use that), bubble screens, bootlegs...whatever. the thing is they run them all out of just a couple formations in the backfield. inside zone read (between the tackles) and outside zone read (outside the tackles).

when they call that their "bread and butter" the don't mean it's the whole meal. they start out with that and try to make it obvious what they are doing. and they keep pushing it and eventually the defense starts to overload it...which is what kelly counts on. he's counting on the opposing defense countering it, but knows to do it they are going to be leaving some pretty nice holes and then thats when they start running their "complementary" plays...all from those couple basic formations.

while teams are working to stop the running play, they are overloading the box and leaving themselves open for passing plays. the read option is what sucks the defense in and makes them essentially suckers because it just leaves them open to be exploited other places. that's a different philosophy than others running it.

and why do they use the read option? let me ask this, why do teams run first? a lot of times it's to set up the pass and/or other things they want to do. that's exactly what kelly does with his core running plays. he chooses the read option over more traditional running plays because, well, as he puts it, four legs are better than two. if you see the RB and know he's going to run the ball, then what is the defense going to do? brace themselves for it.

if you have two possible runners in each play, who are you going to try and defend? and of course, like i said, teams set themselves up to try and stop it, but how do they do that? usually use an extra man or two and have probably one guy set up as a spy which essentially takes him out of the play...hence the zone read. the QB and in the case of kelly's team, the OLine reads not just what the DE is doing, but whoever is the best of the front 7, whether DT, DE, or LB. the QB and the OL set themselves up to take that player out of action and end up overloading the other side or whatever is left more open. again, they do all of this counting on the defense trying to stop it and when they try to stop it they take advantage of what the defense gives them.

and all of this happens so quickly defenses don't really have a chance to think about it or set themselves up for really anything. i saw this quote from a trojan CB a couple years ago about what they were facing when they got smacked around by the ducks.

"Their tempo is real fast, and they don't slow down the whole game," USC cornerback Shareece Wright said. "They didn't even run a lot of plays. They just run them to perfection and wait until the defense breaks down."

[rayzor]

speaking of the trojans....one of the common assumptions is that sure, the ducks offense works against college teams, but it's unproven against NFL caliber DCs. well, that's not entirely true either. who is the DC for the trojans? none other than monte kiffin.

lets take a look at what this offense has done against kiffin's defense.

2010 (oregon won 53-32...but that's not important)

oregon had 599 yards total offense (311 rushing)

Darron Thomas threw 288 yards 4 TDs, 1 INT

LaMichael James ran 239 yards 3TDs

Thomas ran 42 yards

(top 2 rushers that week)

2011 (oregon lost this one 35-38, but again that doesn't matter in this discussion)

oregon had 462 total yards (265 rushing)

265 yards passing 1 TD and 1 INT

Kenjon Barner had 123 yards rushing and 2 TDs

James had 78 yards rushing and 1 TD

(top 2 rushers that week)

2012 (oregon won 62-51)

730 yards of total offense

Marcus Mariota threw 304 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

Barner ran 123 yards and 5 TDs

Mariota ran 96 yards

(top 2 rushers that week)

and if that's not enough...people keep mentioning how david shaw's stanford team beat oregon this year.

oregon beat them last year with shaw as coach and beat harbaugh's team the year before with who running stanford's defense? Vic Frikkin Fangio...the mastermind running their top NFL defense the last couple years.

so can kelly's offensive genius beat NFL level defensive coordinators? it already has.

[rayzor]

The thing is Kelly runs his running backs out of the read option. That works well when you're playing against the Pac 12. Yet this is the NFL. If you want to run in the NFL, you need your backs to have vision and a running start toward the line. That doesn't happen in the read option. (Of course if you run the read option out of the pistol formation like Washington does, that would be closer to running in the traditional way) Also the best rushing attacks in the NFL, all have fullbacks leading the way. Clearly something we have missed ever since Hoover retired.

I'm a little surprised that many want to hire a guy who runs the read option as his main offense, right after wasting away this year running the exact same thing. Have we learn nothing from this season?

Also, he most certainly will run the Oregon offense here in Carolina.

as i just mentioned, he's run that against monte kiffin and vic fangio quite well already.

[rayzor]

If it is Kelly, he best be finding himself a great d-coordinator.

absolutely.

and that defense better be ready for being on the field 35 minutes a game, because one thing about oregon's offense...regardless of how much it scores, it doesn't eat up a lot of clock.

[rayzor]

But who thinks the odds of a guy completely changes what he does AND making a jump to the NFL.....has high odds of immediate success?

no one is saying that he has to completely change what he does. just refine it a bit.

it won't look exactly the same, but the fundamentals will all be the same...which really isn't all that different from what most teams do, esp. more traditional run first teams. run first to set up the pass. pass to open up the run game more. make the defense pick their poison.

it's just how he pulls that off that's different.

[Jackofalltrades]

Jonathan Stewart seemed to do OK in that style of offense. So much so, he was a first round draft pick

Stewart played for Kelly?

Interesting.

[MtnJax]

Stewart played for Kelly?

Interesting.

Kelly became the OC at Oregon during Stew's senior year

[rayzor]

Stewart played for Kelly?

Interesting.

283 carries, 1722 yards rushing, 11 TDs

22 receptions, 145 yards, 2 TDs

in addition to 23 kick returns for 614 yards

[rayzor]

Kelly became the OC at Oregon during Stew's junior year

ftfy.

stewart went into the draft after his junior year.

thought someone might try to nit pick.

[Marguide]

Here's one thing I'm struggling with about Kelly's system...he is known for running very fast, intense practices. But instead of practicing in Oregon or in an indoor facility, he would be doing it outdoors in Spartanburg and Charlotte. And the players won't be 18 to 22, they'll be 24 to 34 year old men. NFL players are stronger and more bulked up than college kids. Are they going to be able to run that system? And if not, what does Kelly then bring to the table that other coaches don't.

I'm not anti-Kelly, but color me less than completely sold that he'll translate to the pros.