Overlooked stat for Cam

[jayflip]

"But I'm PFFL! I have an advanced statistics chart I made that excels in cherry picking for my argument's sake. I write walls and walls of text that no one reads, lest they want to simultaneously bleed through their eyeballs and rectum and have an aneurism at the same time."

[ReturnOfPFFL]

The problem with you is that you will argue forever making obvious statements which are usually only tangentially related to the topic. For example saying that Dalton is more accurate than Newton is correct if you look at completion percentage. But that argument ignores the fact that across the board WCOs are going to produce higher completion percentages compared to our system for example if all you considered was how many shovel passes and dumpoffs that Dalton has thrown compared to how many handoffs and pitches Newton has made which aren't credited as passes because of the style of offense we run. It is likely that Dalton threw more screens and dump offs than Newton given that Cincinnati threw 66 more passes while throwing fewer deeper balls. But more on that later...

Who said that Newton was running a harder offense? They are different offenses for quarterbacks with different skills and abilities. You make these red herring arguments as if they are the point of the discussion. The issue of which type of pass is harder to make really ignores the fact that Dalton can't throw the deep out with any accuracy. Green makes him look better than he is when he snags a wounded duck out of the air and makes Dalton look like a hero. The reason that Newton is a potential franchise quarterback really rests on his ability to make all the throws and run and elude tacklers so well that he can pressure a defense with his feet and arm. Dalton in his system can be very effective and manage a game much like Jake did for us over the years. Dalton just doesn't seem to be dynamic and a game changer.

When you reported the yards after the catch per completion argument you seemed to omit the critical part which is comparing them based on the number of completions which is a difference of 66 passes. They are within 20 yards of one another in total yards after the catch which for Dalton using your numbers of 5.25 yards after the completion times 296 completons reveals a total of 1554 yards versus Newton who has 6.85 yards ATC times 230 completions or 1575 yards. I suspect the higher average for us is partly due to the routes we throw (seams versus slants for example) and the fact that we passed fewer times. Because we are more of a North South throwing team we concentrate on throwing over the defense instead of throwing under the defense like Dalton. So we could have the same number of big plays with a similar amount of total yards but our average would be higher as a function of completions because we threw the ball fewer times. It likely means we are just more explosive as a function of completions. What it wouldn't mean is that Dalton threw the ball further down the field or had more deep passes. If you figure YAC is equal and look at a more appropriate stat such as the number of 20 yard passes as a function of completions it isn't even close. Newton has completed 48 passes over 20 yards out of a total of 230 completions or 21% of all passes versus Dalton has thrown 33 out of a total of 296 or 11% of all passes. Almost a 2-1 difference. But what would you expect? Dalton plays in an East/West horizontal system with emphasizes short dink and dunk passes down the field. If you compare them on 40 yard passes as a function of completions they are essentially the same: Newton is 10 of 230 (4.4%) versus Dalton who is 13 of 296 or 4.4%.

When you look at how most of Dalton's long completions are going to Green who bails out Dalton on a regular basis, you wonder why Dalton's numbers aren't much better than they are.

The issue here is your numbers aren't germane to the argument and the facts as you describe them are only tangentially related to the real issue. Dalton is good in his system but has distinct limitations. Newton could play in any of the major systems. They are just 2 very different quarterbacks and everyone can think as they like. Just don't waste my time trying to convince me that Newton doesn't have a higher ceiling than Dalton. Anyone who has watched them knows the answer to that outside of Cincinnati or contrarians like you who troll the board looking for an argument.

1. Once again, the idea that overall the WCO is going to produce a higher completion % compared to our system, the spread option, is just not true and is based on nothing but opinionated drivel, not backed up by any evidence. You accuse me of being tangibly relevant(which I didn't even bring up) or obvious, and yet you say this. This is just flat out pulled out of Teeray's ass.

Compared to a QB who's mainly running a John Fox-like, power running offense, yes, the WCO might do that. Not compared to the spread option. Every dual rush QB that came out of college, and is running the spread option in the NFL, other than The Golden Calf of Bristol, has tore it up in the completion % department. Even though we go deep, we usually get our guys wiiiide open when the defense is trying to stack the box and defend our running game. This is proven already.

The idea that we are running the actual Air Coryell is also just not true either so the WCO vs Air Coryell discussion was moot form the get go anyway. We are running the spread option 80% of the time, mostly out of pistol, with a highly concentrated dose of zone read pass/run plays, with very little of what Chud's Air Coryell looked like in San Diego or the original Air Coryell with Dan Foust. Our offense resemble's Auburn offense a lot more than it does the Air Coryell. Go see how many times Dan Foust lined up in the pistol or even shotgun in his career.

Once again, I didn't bring this into the conversation, it was others who have to come up with some explanation of why Dalton would have a higher completion %. All I did is defend the fact Dalton can in fact throw the deep ball. In reality this is just an unnecessary discussion, a completely subjective and opinionated debate when the truth is the QB has the biggest effect on his completion % and opposing defenses. And for the record, Dalton's dealing with both the Steelers and Ravens twice a year, every year. Really the only QBs that are significantly being affected by the low% deep ball right now, is Andrew Luck and Eli Manning.

2. I already listed those total numbers you just did 2 pages back. That's where the discussion actually started, so you are late on that one. I agree, they are almost a wash. The point is, one again, we average more yards after catch per completion. And you are using total passing yards. The only way to figure out who threw more passes through the air downfield is to find those exact stats broken down by AIR passing yards. Drawing conclusion based on completions that include yards after catch is inconclusive. That's why I didn't care to argue Andy's 12 40+ yards completions and Cam's 10 or Cam's 47 20+ yards completions vs Andy's 32. We don't know how they broke down. But I already pointed out, there are numbers out there for 2011. Dalton was one of only 6 quarterbacks along with other deep ball throwers like Eli and Romo to have at least 15 passes over 30 yards and had the 4th best completion percentage in 2011. Newton attempted more deep balls and completed less. This is a fact.

You and the others keep claiming Dalton is getting advantage in something Cam is too. Once again. Last year, our running back, Stewart, was our #1 "receiver" in yards after catch. He had 508 yards after catch more than even Smith at 474. We were one of overall in yards after catch. Cam had 1975 yards after catch. Dalton's receivers got him 4.8 yac per completion/2.8 per attempt and our guys got Cam 6.1 yac per completion/3.8 per attempt. 48% of Cams passing yards were yards after catch. 42% of Dalton's yards, were yards after catch. This is also a fact. Anyway you look at it, Cam benefited more. So if you want to go there, then who exactly is getting the bigger benefit of padded stats here? Cam was dumping the ball off a lot to his running backs and tight ends last year and still does it this year.

Finally the premise that Dalton couldn't play in another system but Newton could is just a personal opinion not backed by any sort of substantial evidence. This is the same as "ceiling" or "potential" talk and it's silly to box him in and try to limit him to what Jake Delhomme did. He will never be the runner Cam is, that part is obvious. But there's no reason why he can't be a better passer, more clutch, more methodical. Nobody knows this. There's no limit on this.

Also, Dalton ran a similar system Cam ran in college and now Dalton's playing in a different system. Cam's actually still running a lot of the same plays he ran in college, even this year. In fact Andy ran similar plays that Cam Did in college which were all copied from Urban Myer and The Golden Calf of Bristol anyway. He even ran the inverted deer in college, which Cam used it twice this year against the Saints.

http://smartfootball.../tag/gun-option

So far Dalton's showed he can succeed in two different systems. Spread Option and WCO.

The fact is nobody sits there and breaks down offenses when Comparing QB's stats like completion %, touchdowns, passer rating, yards etc. It's a subjective argument that never gets you anywhere.

The numbers are what they are. Andy's been a better passing QB this year. Not saying he's more productive overall(Cam's TQB is 54 and Andy's is 53), but as a passer, he's been better this year. He's completed at a higher percentage, thrown the ball more, has more passing touchdowns, and not to mention 6 4th quarter comebacks in his career compared to only 2 for Cam. He took his team to the playoffs last year, as a rookie with a rookie #1 wide receiver, in a division dominated by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ravens defenses, and is in a position to do it again this year. And it has little to do with him being in a more favorable offense, because right now, running the spread option in the NFL is veeeery favorable for anyone with a dual rush QB. He's just been a better passer so far this year. That's all.

[The_Mango55]

What's a dual rush qb?

[MaineManPanther]

The argument was never who was better at throwing it deep, but who was asked to do it more. Dalton and Cam run an offense in two different schemes. You tried to argue that this wasn't the case and that Dalton makes all the same throws that Cam does, which is false.

Quit changing your argument.

And yes, Cam IS better at throwing the deep ball that Dalton. Dalton just lofts that poo up like a fuging duck and hopes that AJ can bail him out.

Luckily, PFF keeps specific deep balls ( throws targeted of 20 or more yards downfield) statistics.

2011: Att: Newton 89. Dalton 60

Completion %: Newton 40.4. Dalton 46.7

Td/int : Newton 7/4. Dalton 9/2.

Percentage of throws that are thrown deep.

Newton: 17.2

Dalton: 11.6

2012: Att: Newton 53. Dalton 54

Completion% : Newton 50.9. Dalton 33.3

Td/int : Newton 5/2 . Dalton 4/4

Percentage of throws that are thrown deep

Newton: 13.6

Dalton: 11.4

Pretty much proves your argument. Though Dalton was better throwing deep last year.

[MaineManPanther]

And I'm telling you there is no possible way to figure that out from yards per completion. Any quarterback in a WCO is going to have his yards per completion skewed depending on how many passing attempts they make short. That doesn't mean they actually throw fewer deep balls or are worse at throwing the deep ball. That just showed passing yards through the air, and yards after catch.

There is actually a category that tracks this. If you want it in total yardage, then when it comes to deep balls....

Andy has 12 over 40+ and Cam has 10 this year.

If you want deep ball through the air only, you're going to have to sign up and pay for it on an advanced site. But you can't figure it out from aypc. It says nothing about the number of passes through the air over 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 40, etc....

It's an average. It can add up in a million of different ways and can still come out with the same air yards per completion.

Per Pff on throws targeted twenty or more yards downfield, percentage of attempts per dropback.

In 2011 Newton had a deep ball attempt percentage of 17.2 ( placing him 3rd highest in the league).

Dalton had 11.6 (19th)

In 2012 Newton currently has a attempt percentage of 13.6 (7th)

Dalton has 11.4 (17th).

Current two year average:

Newton 15.4 ( Avg around 5th highest)

Dalton 11.5 ( avg around 17 th)

[KillerKat]

ok time to put returnofpffl on ignore. thought he got banned.

[bigskypanthersguy]

Dear god. PFFL posts are like the song that never ends: it does no one any good, it's incredibly inane and obnoxious, and we can all see the end result coming from a mile away.

[teeray]

1. Once again, the idea that overall the WCO is going to produce a higher completion % compared to our system, the spread option, is just not true and is based on nothing but opinionated drivel, not backed up by any evidence. You accuse me of being tangibly relevant(which I didn't even bring up) or obvious, and yet you say this. This is just flat out pulled out of Teeray's ass.

Compared to a QB who's mainly running a John Fox-like, power running offense, yes, the WCO might do that. Not compared to the spread option. Every dual rush QB that came out of college, and is running the spread option in the NFL, other than The Golden Calf of Bristol, has tore it up in the completion % department. Even though we go deep, we usually get our guys wiiiide open when the defense is trying to stack the box and defend our running game. This is proven already.

The idea that we are running the actual Air Coryell is also just not true either so the WCO vs Air Coryell discussion was moot form the get go anyway. We are running the spread option 80% of the time, mostly out of pistol, with a highly concentrated dose of zone read pass/run plays, with very little of what Chud's Air Coryell looked like in San Diego or the original Air Coryell with Dan Foust. Our offense resemble's Auburn offense a lot more than it does the Air Coryell. Go see how many times Dan Foust lined up in the pistol or even shotgun in his career.

Once again, I didn't bring this into the conversation, it was others who have to come up with some explanation of why Dalton would have a higher completion %. All I did is defend the fact Dalton can in fact throw the deep ball. In reality this is just an unnecessary discussion, a completely subjective and opinionated debate when the truth is the QB has the biggest effect on his completion % and opposing defenses. And for the record, Dalton's dealing with both the Steelers and Ravens twice a year, every year. Really the only QBs that are significantly being affected by the low% deep ball right now, is Andrew Luck and Eli Manning.

2. I already listed those total numbers you just did 2 pages back. That's where the discussion actually started, so you are late on that one. I agree, they are almost a wash. The point is, one again, we average more yards after catch per completion. And you are using total passing yards. The only way to figure out who threw more passes through the air downfield is to find those exact stats broken down by AIR passing yards. Drawing conclusion based on completions that include yards after catch is inconclusive. That's why I didn't care to argue Andy's 12 40+ yards completions and Cam's 10 or Cam's 47 20+ yards completions vs Andy's 32. We don't know how they broke down. But I already pointed out, there are numbers out there for 2011. Dalton was one of only 6 quarterbacks along with other deep ball throwers like Eli and Romo to have at least 15 passes over 30 yards and had the 4th best completion percentage in 2011. Newton attempted more deep balls and completed less. This is a fact.

You and the others keep claiming Dalton is getting advantage in something Cam is too. Once again. Last year, our running back, Stewart, was our #1 "receiver" in yards after catch. He had 508 yards after catch more than even Smith at 474. We were one of overall in yards after catch. Cam had 1975 yards after catch. Dalton's receivers got him 4.8 yac per completion/2.8 per attempt and our guys got Cam 6.1 yac per completion/3.8 per attempt. 48% of Cams passing yards were yards after catch. 42% of Dalton's yards, were yards after catch. This is also a fact. Anyway you look at it, Cam benefited more. So if you want to go there, then who exactly is getting the bigger benefit of padded stats here? Cam was dumping the ball off a lot to his running backs and tight ends last year and still does it this year.

Finally the premise that Dalton couldn't play in another system but Newton could is just a personal opinion not backed by any sort of substantial evidence. This is the same as "ceiling" or "potential" talk and it's silly to box him in and try to limit him to what Jake Delhomme did. He will never be the runner Cam is, that part is obvious. But there's no reason why he can't be a better passer, more clutch, more methodical. Nobody knows this. There's no limit on this.

Also, Dalton ran a similar system Cam ran in college and now Dalton's playing in a different system. Cam's actually still running a lot of the same plays he ran in college, even this year. In fact Andy ran similar plays that Cam Did in college which were all copied from Urban Myer and The Golden Calf of Bristol anyway. He even ran the inverted deer in college, which Cam used it twice this year against the Saints.

http://smartfootball.../tag/gun-option

So far Dalton's showed he can succeed in two different systems. Spread Option and WCO.

The fact is nobody sits there and breaks down offenses when Comparing QB's stats like completion %, touchdowns, passer rating, yards etc. It's a subjective argument that never gets you anywhere.

The numbers are what they are. Andy's been a better passing QB this year. Not saying he's more productive overall(Cam's TQB is 54 and Andy's is 53), but as a passer, he's been better this year. He's completed at a higher percentage, thrown the ball more, has more passing touchdowns, and not to mention 6 4th quarter comebacks in his career compared to only 2 for Cam. He took his team to the playoffs last year, as a rookie with a rookie #1 wide receiver, in a division dominated by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ravens defenses, and is in a position to do it again this year. And it has little to do with him being in a more favorable offense, because right now, running the spread option in the NFL is veeeery favorable for anyone with a dual rush QB. He's just been a better passer so far this year. That's all.

The fact that you think all spread options are the same tells me you don't know what the fug you are talking about.

Hey, you said all he dual threat QBs that are playing in a spread option are tearing it up in completion %. Well everyone but The Golden Calf of Bristol. Sooooo... basically you are talking about RG3. Who runs an entirely different offense. Make a note to yourself. Just because two teams have read option looks in their running game, it does not mean they are running the same offense or are running the same passing game.

When I talk about driving the ball downfield I am not talking about throwing the ball up on a bomb 30 or 40+ yards down field. I am talking about driving the ball in that 15-30 yard range. Something that Dalton doesn't do or isn't asked to do.

The better stat when looking at different offenses, and an easier stat is simple to find, and that is % of passes thrown that is 15+ yards. Or called in advanced statistics is simply called percentage deep which is % of attempts that is over 15 yards.

That is where Dalton ranks 25th (and RG3 is 27th) in the league and Cam ranks 5th. That stat doesn't tell me who is the better QB. It just tells me what type of offenses they are running and where the majority of the passes are being attempted.

It is a simple stat that even PFFL can understand and it show definitively what types of passes are being asked of the QBs to make.

If you look at the top 10 in the NFL in % deep only one QB has an overall completion % over 61% and that is Russell Wilson.

Out of the bottom ten in % deep only 5 have an overall completion % under 61%. Those 5 are probably the worst QBs in the NFL or at the very least in the bottom half of NFL QBs (Kolb, Skelton, Weeden, Gabbert, and Bradford).

And of course the guy who is dead last in deep % has an overall completion % of 70% (Alex Smith).

So there is a DIRECT correlation to the type of offense you run, the type of passes you are asked to make, and your overall completion %.

Thus considering the type of passes Cam has been asked to make he is right where he needs to be in overall completion % as compared to the rest of the league.

And more importantly, and more to the issue that we are arguing about, it is clear to me that Dalton is a dink and dunk QB and his 62.5 completion % is not surprising, or overly impressive.

http://wp.advancednf...tats.php?pos=QB

[Jackofalltrades]

How the hell do I ignore this clown?????

[PhillyB]

lol i've figured it out PFFL's strategy is to post such lengthy drivel that anyone arguing with him will just give up and he'll "win" by default. i know guys exactly like him, they just can't allow themselves to be wrong and they'll put themselves through all sorts of logical and technical contortions for the sole purpose of not losing the argument. they're somehow willing to ignore the fact that literally every response they get from other human beings opposes their point of view and choose instead to believe they're the only one that's right and the rest of the world is just stupid.

most of them end up working at target.

[ReturnOfPFFL]

The fact that you think all spread options are the same tells me you don't know what the fug you are talking about.

Hey, you said all he dual threat QBs that are playing in a spread option are tearing it up in completion %. Well everyone but The Golden Calf of Bristol. Sooooo... basically you are talking about RG3. Who runs an entirely different offense. Make a note to yourself. Just because two teams have read option looks in their running game, it does not mean they are running the same offense or are running the same passing game.

When I talk about driving the ball downfield I am not talking about throwing the ball up on a bomb 30 or 40+ yards down field. I am talking about driving the ball in that 15-30 yard range. Something that Dalton doesn't do or isn't asked to do.

The better stat when looking at different offenses, and an easier stat is simple to find, and that is % of passes thrown that is 15+ yards. Or called in advanced statistics is simply called percentage deep which is % of attempts that is over 15 yards.

That is where Dalton ranks 25th (and RG3 is 27th) in the league and Cam ranks 5th. That stat doesn't tell me who is the better QB. It just tells me what type of offenses they are running and where the majority of the passes are being attempted.

It is a simple stat that even PFFL can understand and it show definitively what types of passes are being asked of the QBs to make.

If you look at the top 10 in the NFL in % deep only one QB has an overall completion % over 61% and that is Russell Wilson.

Out of the bottom ten in % deep only 5 have an overall completion % under 61%. Those 5 are probably the worst QBs in the NFL or at the very least in the bottom half of NFL QBs (Kolb, Skelton, Weeden, Gabbert, and Bradford).

And of course the guy who is dead last in deep % has an overall completion % of 70% (Alex Smith).

So there is a DIRECT correlation to the type of offense you run, the type of passes you are asked to make, and your overall completion %.

Thus considering the type of passes Cam has been asked to make he is right where he needs to be in overall completion % as compared to the rest of the league.

And more importantly, and more to the issue that we are arguing about, it is clear to me that Dalton is a dink and dunk QB and his 62.5 completion % is not surprising, or overly impressive.

http://wp.advancednf...tats.php?pos=QB

Who said I think all spread option offenses are the same? Why are you putting words in my mouth? However, they are all the same in concept. You, oth, believe we're actually running the Air Coryell.

Rusell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, RG3, The Golden Calf of Bristol(last year) are all running a lot of spread option plays. Cam and RG3 run it religiously.

So you are talking about intermediate passing game, not the deep ball. OK, nobody was arguing about this. The claim was Andy can't throw it deep. That's what we are arguing about.

Of course a QB in the WCO is going to have a higher percentage of passes under 10 yards and a lower percentage of intermediate passes. It's made to simulate and complement the run game not get 1st downs or yardage on every pass attempt. You pass short to set up the run. That's the idea behind the offense. That doesn't mean the dude can't throw it deep. But if you are only looking at attempts, it only says what they are being asked to do. You still have to look at completion % to see if they are any damn good at it. And you should still check to see who they are doing it against(again, Andy's facing Pittsburgh and the Ravens twice a year).

The WCO, has always required accurate, precise quarterbacks with exquisite footwork and a high ability to read defenses with a quick release. You have to be almost robotically consistent to run it right and it's one of the hardest offenses to master, so the idea that somehow running the WCO is now a "dink and dunk" unimpressive offense, is just something that makes you feel better about Cam Newton. And that is what's clear to me. Joe Montana ran the west coast offense. Tom Brady started out in the WCO. Steve Young. Aaron Rodgers. Even Bret Farve.

The fact is the WCO is associated with an elite class of QB's, and it requires a certain level quarterback to even attempt to run it, and that also has something to do with the high completion % associated with it.

And you know what's not impressive to me for a passing QB? 16 passing touchdowns in week 14 and 2 4th quarter comebacks over the span of 29 games most of which were lost by less than 7 points. Or how about the fact the 2 minute offense is in danger of extinction in Charlotte?

Are you impressed with that?

[Marguide]

The idea that we are running the actual Air Coryell is also just not true either so the WCO vs Air Coryell discussion was moot form the get go anyway. We are running the spread option 80% of the time, mostly out of pistol, with a highly concentrated dose of zone read pass/run plays, with very little of what Chud's Air Coryell looked like in San Diego or the original Air Coryell with Dan Foust. Our offense resemble's Auburn offense a lot more than it does the Air Coryell. Go see how many times Dan Foust lined up in the pistol or even shotgun in his career.

You just don't listen and learn.

We are not running plays "mostly out of the pistol". The pistol is not the same as a shotgun formation. We typically run maybe 70% of our plays out of the gun now. Earlier in the year, it was above 80%. But few of these are out of the pistol.

You always try to win arguments by putting out a greater volume of words. It might be better if you spent more time watching the games and less looking at meaningless stats.

[jayflip]

If every huddler puts this guy in ignore, it's almost like banning him.

[ReturnOfPFFL]

You just don't listen and learn.

We are not running plays "mostly out of the pistol". The pistol is not the same as a shotgun formation. We typically run maybe 70% of our plays out of the gun now. Earlier in the year, it was above 80%. But few of these are out of the pistol.

You always try to win arguments by putting out a greater volume of words. It might be better if you spent more time watching the games and less looking at meaningless stats.

Fine I'll keep it short. Please stop, because it's clear to me you have no idea how little relevance your observation has to this discussion or our previous discussion or when I am making that statement.

Our shotgun and pistol plays are interchangeable. The fact is our QB always lines up about 4-5 yards back every single time, which is one of the staples of the pistol formation, as you yourself even pointed out, yet failed to actually notice.

We actually almost NEVER run the traditional shotgun. It's not made to run. It's primary design is to pass.

Our "shotgun", when running a spread option offense, is dual purpose, designed for our running quarterback. Whether we run the pistol, weak pistol, inverted deer, read option, double option, triple option, the philosophical difference is we have the ability to RUN our QB. It's as much of a running formation as it is a passing play.

They all fall under the spread option, and gives you the same advantage any other spread option play with a dual pass/rush QB gives you, which is something you failed to understand from the get go.

As I told you 2 weeks ago, you are grasping at straws and splitting hairs over something that has NO relevance and no effect on the main point being discussed. The point of our discussion last time was the fact Cam doesn't need to drop back to pass when in these formations, and benefits from the 1 man advantage the spread option gives you and whether he is in the pistol, or any of the other spread option plays, he doesn't need to drop back to pass...unlike when he is under center. The more complex footwork and timing requirements are not there in the any of the shotgun formations.