Vegas odds to win the superbowl

[Happy Panther]

EDIT. BODOG odds as of 5-11 below. Seem a little more reasonable. Apologies

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2035100&postcount=23

I know you guys hate prediction threads but I think looking at vegas odds is useful because

1) The initial lines are set in an unbiased way

2) later lines represent public opinion as the lines move with bets.

Plus I love to gamble

If you had to pick a team from the list which one would you pick and not pick.

I might pick Dolphins as a sleeper

Dallas seems strange at 9-1 and 2nd favorite??

Anyway, one interesting thing is that I put $100 in vegas at the beginning of the season last year on the panthers and got 50-1. 18-1 is getting some respect.

overall these odds seem relatively spot on save one or two strange ones.

New England Patriots 8/1

Dallas Cowboys 9/1

New York Giants 10/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1

Indianapolis Colts 12/1

San Diego Chargers 12/1

Baltimore Ravens 14/1

Tennessee Titans 16/1

Carolina Panthers 18/1

Philadelphia Eagles 18/1

New Orleans Saints 20/1

Atlanta Falcons 25/1

Denver Broncos 25/1

Green Bay Packers 25/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1

Minnesota Vikings 25/1

New York Jets 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1

Chicago Bears 30/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1

Buffalo Bills 35/1

Houston Texans 35/1

Miami Dolphins 35/1

Washington Redskins 35/1

Seattle Seahawks 50/1

Cleveland Browns 55/1

Cincinnati Bengals 60/1

San Francisco 49ers 60/1

Oakland Raiders 75/1

St. Louis Rams 75/1

Detroit Lions 100/1

Kansas City Chiefs 100/1

[rayzor]

leading the NFCS.

dallas at 9/1???? pffttt....losing TO isn't going to make them better. maybe in the locker room but on the field? nah.

that said, the top 5-6 are predictable...not that they are right, just that it figures that they would have betting people swinging from their balls the same way that the major media people do. we might see a half of those in the top 6 there at the end of the season.

[panthers55]

Betting lines aren't there to predict who they think are going to win but are designed to encourage betting and even out the betting. For example Dallas will have a smaller line than some other teams because they have a large fan base who will bet on them and don't need long odds like 30-1 to encourage folks. If you look at their playoff record in the past decade you wouldn't think they were anything but a distinct long shot. Even teams like Atlanta and Chicago have been in the Super bowl more recently than Dallas.

Odds do shift based on trades, transactions, injuries etc but for the most part Vegas doesn't care who wins. If they pick the odds and adjust them accordingly depending on how people are betting, they make their money either way.

So in the end I can't see how they are useful given that I bet most folks don't actually have a clue as to how their team will actually fare. People who will put money on the Panthers for example are doing so for the 18-1 odds but don't really expect to win.

[Happy Panther]

Betting lines aren't there to predict who they think are going to win but are designed to encourage betting and even out the betting. For example Dallas will have a smaller line than some other teams because they have a large fan base who will bet on them and don't need long odds like 30-1 to encourage folks. If you look at their playoff record in the past decade you wouldn't think they were anything but a distinct long shot. Even teams like Atlanta and Chicago have been in the Super bowl more recently than Dallas.

From what i know about the couple of firms that set the initial lines in vegas I would disagree a little. These firms gather and model massive amounts of data and attempt to produce a truly unbiased initial odd. To the extent that an unbiased odd encourages betting i agree. They do this because they then sell these lines to the casinos and the world. The casinos can then move the line all the want but i don't think the typically do untill the $$ starts coming in.

To this extent, assuming that these odds have not moved much, somebody truly thinks Dallas is a near favorite to win the superbowl...i.e. its not just a bunch or stupid Dallas fans moving the odds.

[mantal]

I'm sure you're right about the initial setting of odds, but it starts changing rapidly to try to maximize the input of money...

[panthers55]

From what i know about the couple of firms that set the initial lines in vegas I would disagree a little. These firms gather and model massive amounts of data and attempt to produce a truly unbiased initial odd. To the extent that an unbiased odd encourages betting i agree. They do this because they then sell these lines to the casinos and the world. The casinos can then move the line all the want but i don't think the typically do untill the $$ starts coming in.

To this extent, assuming that these odds have not moved much, somebody truly thinks Dallas is a near favorite to win the superbowl...i.e. its not just a bunch or stupid Dallas fans moving the odds.

Then why would you decide that a team that hasn't won a playoff game in a decade in a top favorite to win the Super Bowl.

I suspect they aren't as scientific or that wonderful as they would want you to believe. But since they sell it casinos etc, they need to convince everyone how great and accurate they are.

Since only one team wins it every year, any odds they set would be pretty good as long as the bottom 5 to 10 teams don't win.

Frankly I could have picked those teams with liitle or no modeling or effort. Just look at the number of Superbowls they have won in the past 10 years. Notice the Giants, Patriots, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are all at the top. Otherwise it is a crap shoot and pretty much goes along divsional winners and records last year.

Are there any great surprises in there for you??

[panthers55]

From what i know about the couple of firms that set the initial lines in vegas I would disagree a little. These firms gather and model massive amounts of data and attempt to produce a truly unbiased initial odd. To the extent that an unbiased odd encourages betting i agree. They do this because they then sell these lines to the casinos and the world. The casinos can then move the line all the want but i don't think the typically do untill the $$ starts coming in.

To this extent, assuming that these odds have not moved much, somebody truly thinks Dallas is a near favorite to win the superbowl...i.e. its not just a bunch or stupid Dallas fans moving the odds.

Then why would you decide that a team that hasn't won a playoff game in a decade in a top favorite to win the Super Bowl.

I suspect they aren't as scientific or that wonderful as they would want you to believe. But since they sell it casinos etc, they need to convince everyone how great and accurate they are.

Since only one team wins it every year, any odds they set would be pretty good as long as the bottom 5 to 10 teams don't win.

Frankly I could have picked those teams with liitle or no modeling or effort. Just look at the number of Superbowls they have won in the past 10 years. Notice the Giants, Patriots, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are all at the top. Otherwise it is a crap shoot and pretty much goes along divsional winners and records last year.

Are there any great surprises in there for you other than the Cowboys who everyone loves even though they can't win a playoff game.??

[Happy Panther]

I'm sure you're right about the initial setting of odds, but it starts changing rapidly to try to maximize the input of money...

Agreed, i am only talking about initial lines. BUT, the casinos want accurate lines so the chance that they move significantly is low. there is nothing they or we can do about irrational exuberance but usually bettors are savvy

[panthers55]

Agreed, i am only talking about initial lines. BUT, the casinos want accurate lines so the chance that they move significantly is low. there is nothing they or we can do about irrational exuberance but usually bettors are savvy

They move significantly many years. What do you think happened to the odds last year when Brady went down? The Panther odds went from 50-1 to less than 30-1 after the first 3 or 4 weeks. Is that not significant?

You don't need a ton of modeling to do what they did. Other than Dallas the rest of the top are teams that have make the playoffs and had good records last year or won their division. It doesn''t even get iffy until you get halfway down the list. If there are any surprises it is who fell to the bottom like Arizona and Minnesota. The reality is that no matter what they set the odds at, you are going to be right 31 out of 32 times. And if you do a good job of making sure the betting is spread on all teams you wouldn't lose money until a team wins with odds greater than 30-1. So as long as the bottom 10 teams don't win it, you are safe.

But for the record, I have heard the same thing about the modeling, I am just not convinced that it really is very meaningful or valuable.

[Udogg]

I put 50 down every year on the panthers since 98. Sooner or later I'm gonna hit.

[Darth Bobo]

Arizona who almost won the Superbowl is ranked way too lowly. Seems like a decent bet to me.

The Cowboys are ranked too highly. No T.O. Giants want another SB, Philly gave McNabb some decent receivers, they're in salary cap trouble, noone takes the 'boys for granted, and Wade Phillips sucks.

I'm afraid we are ranked too highly. In fairness, this offseason probably was not enough to fix our defense, and our schedule is brutal.

Denver is 25/1, while Chicago is 30/1......Makes no sense at all. Chicago's chances are better, even in Denver's division.

The Skins are 35/1, while Seattle is 50/1.....again stupid. Seattle's chances are better.

Kansas City @ 100 to 1 odds??? I'm going to put 5 on it. I say they beat San Diego late in the season.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

Most of the initial lines are based on realist expectations, however, the "fan favorite" teams like Dallas are always going to be skewed. They know that people will still line up around the corner to bet on Dallas, so they push the odds as slim as they can get away with. Those guys aren't stupid, they know Dallas doesn't have the 2nd best chance in football to win the super bowl.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

Darth Bobo, if the Panthers are too high on there, what team has worse odds that should be ahead of us? Arizona is one obviously, but that's because they are way too low, anyone else?

[Darth Bobo]

Darth Bobo, if the Panthers are too high on there, what team has worse odds that should be ahead of us? Arizona is one obviously, but that's because they are way too low, anyone else?

Da Bears have the easiest schedule on paper, a consistently strong defense and running game, even a recent SB appearance. Now, for the first time in over a decade, they have a proven and charismatic QB that they believe in. It pains me to say it, but in 2009, I feel they honestly have a better shot than we do.