Top QBs: Last 16 years

[rayzor]

1st round

33 taken

10 probowlers (33%)

5 multiple probowls (15%)

23 starting multiple years (70%)

Honestly, that's the biggest problem I see with round 1 QBs. No matter how bad they are, your team is usually gonna stick with them as the starter for 2..3..4 years, just because of the contract/investment. Whereas an UDFA, you can bring in, if he sucks, you just cut him and bring someone else in. You don't have to suffer through 2-3 losing seasons with him as the starter.

Like I said before, best case scenario for the Panthers: Moore is our future QB and we save our high draft picks to improve other areas of the team.

that part about 33% of them going to the probowl and 15% of them doing it multiple times just flew right past you, didn't it?

ok...here's a list of those QBs that started multiple years (or will be going into 2009):

peyton - 11

mcnabb - 9

harrington - 6

culpepper - 5

pennington - 5

carr - 5

big ben - 5

vick - 4

boller - 4

palmer - 4

eli - 4

couch - 3

leftwich - 3

rivers - 3

smith - 3

grossman - 2

campbell - 2

cutler - 2

young - 2

ryan and flacco will be entering their 2nd years.

bolded are starting this coming year. young may be. that hasn't been decided yet. he still has a ton of talent and when he gets his head squared away (which it sounds like is happening, i have no doubt that he will turn back into the same pro-bowl QB he was his rookie year.

that is 12 or 13 who will still be starting. had vick not had his legal troubles he would still be starting. you may hate him as much as i do but the guy had/has talent and produced big time. is he someone that we would have ever drafted? most likely not.

from that list of starters with what do these all have in common?

tim couch

michael vick

david carr

joey harrington

alex smith

ok...i'll tell you...they all were drafted too early. what does that mean? they had started less than 30 games in their college career. they went into the draft too early and were drafted too early.

would our current scouting department, whom i have the ultimate faith in, have drafted someone like that? i'm going to tell you that i don't think they would. they know what they are doing.

if they were to draft a QB next year in the first (assuming that they trade 2011's 1st rounder for one which, you have to admit, is a likely scenario) i am sure that they would use the very same talent to pick one that they would any other position. why wouldn't they? would they all of the sudden turn into morons? no.

[rayzor]

Don't know whether we need an offensive or defensive player next year. Lets see what happens with Peppers and how the D line does this year. Seems a bit premature to talk about what our biggest need will be next year.

not anymore premature than assuming that QB won't be.

we have to be getting ready for the next QB fairly soon. jake won't likely last longer than 3 years. is moore the next one? i'd like to do everything we can and check out all available options before we crown him the future king.

wouldn't that seem like a rational and logical thing to do?

if there is someone in that draft next year who can be better for the panthers and they are within reach, wouldn't you want us to get him?

[panthers55]

not anymore premature than assuming that QB won't be.

we have to be getting ready for the next QB fairly soon. jake won't likely last longer than 3 years. is moore the next one? i'd like to do everything we can and check out all available options before we crown him the future king.

wouldn't that seem like a rational and logical thing to do?

if there is someone in that draft next year who can be better for the panthers and they are within reach, wouldn't you want us to get him?

You missed the point completely. No one argues we don't need to find Jake's replacement but to say we need to draft one in the first round when

a. we don't currently have a first round pick

b. don't know who will be out there since some underclassman may come out while some currently projected stars could drop while others who are not on anyone's radar could have a great year and move way up the boards.

c. may have bigger needs given Jake has a 5 year contract and could return to form this year which makes the immediate need to replace him less urgent.

d. if there are 8-10 guys out there with first round talent for example, several may drop to lower rounds and be available.

e. Moore has a great preseason and we are convinced that the next starter is still on the roster.

f. Cantwell replaces McCown or Moore and becomes the heir apparent.

is surely not a point that needs to be beaten to death at this point.

Lets see how 2009 unfolds and it will give us a better idea of what we need.

That was my point and frankly I can't see how anyone would argue with that.

[rayzor]

all i'm saying is that it wouldn't be a bad thing to do if the panthers did decide to draft a QB in the 1st next year (providing that we can get one which we should be able to) and that is something that the team very much should consider.

i'm also saying that we shouldn't settle for moore if there is a better option available to us and we have solid players at most other positions.

is that unreasonable?

[panthers55]

all i'm saying is that it wouldn't be a bad thing to do if the panthers did decide to draft a QB in the 1st next year (providing that we can get one which we should be able to) and that is something that the team very much should consider.

i'm also saying that we shouldn't settle for moore if there is a better option available to us and we have solid players at most other positions.

is that unreasonable?

Problem with that is how will we know if a draft pick quarterback will be better than Moore who is 2-1 in the NFL and cheap. Do we grab one in the first and spend potentially 30 million guaranteed and 60-65 million on a guy who might be better than a guy who is already on the roster. If you were guaranteed to find a better option then of course you spend the money, but you can make the argument that there are other positions which offer a better chance of success if you are going to spend that much money.

[rayzor]

Problem with that is how will we know if a draft pick quarterback will be better than Moore who is 2-1 in the NFL and cheap. Do we grab one in the first and spend potentially 30 million guaranteed and 60-65 million on a guy who might be better than a guy who is already on the roster. If you were guaranteed to find a better option then of course you spend the money, but you can make the argument that there are other positions which offer a better chance of success if you are going to spend that much money.

given the success we have had in drafting 1st round picks in the past and our improved college scouting would we not be more able to pick a quality QB in the first?

it all comes down to do you trust our FO to pick a good QB in the first. what in the last decade has caused you to believe that they might not be able to pick the right QB?

also, if our philosophy (which i am both proud of and in favor of) building through the draft has worked so well, why should we think differently with regards to a QB?

[panthers55]

given the success we have had in drafting 1st round picks in the past and our improved college scouting would we not be more able to pick a quality QB in the first?

it all comes down to do you trust our FO to pick a good QB in the first. what in the last decade has caused you to believe that they might not be able to pick the right QB?

also, if our philosophy (which i am both proud of and in favor of) building through the draft has worked so well, why should we think differently with regards to a QB?

If our FO is so good and we are so adept at getting great value at the position we are picking, then why not pick a first round quarterback talent in the second or third round.

Unless of course you don't trust our staff to be able to find great talent in the later rounds. Until a disappointing senior year, Cantwell was considered by some to be a first round talent. Maybe he is our first rounder that we just got as a UDFA.

[rayzor]

If our FO is so good and we are so adept at getting great value at the position we are picking, then why not pick a first round quarterback talent in the second or third round.

Unless of course you don't trust our staff to be able to find great talent in the later rounds. Until a disappointing senior year, Cantwell was considered by some to be a first round talent. Maybe he is our first rounder that we just got as a UDFA.

so there is no situation in which you think the panthers should draft a QB in the first?

why is there this aversion? the risk is no different than that of drafting an RB in the first and we have done that twice in three years. why couldn't we just have waited until later rounds to draft them?

[Urrymonster]

given the success we have had in drafting 1st round picks in the past and our improved college scouting would we not be more able to pick a quality QB in the first?

it all comes down to do you trust our FO to pick a good QB in the first. what in the last decade has caused you to believe that they might not be able to pick the right QB?

also, if our philosophy (which i am both proud of and in favor of) building through the draft has worked so well, why should we think differently with regards to a QB?

The flip side of this arguement, is that could it be that they have such success in the first rounds because they pick the 'safer' positions? I am sure most teams have a good track record with LBs, RBs and OTs, but then lose consistency with the QBs, WRs etc etc

[panthers55]

so there is no situation in which you think the panthers should draft a QB in the first?

why is there this aversion? the risk is no different than that of drafting an RB in the first and we have done that twice in three years. why couldn't we just have waited until later rounds to draft them?

Again there is no aversion to doing anything. My issue is that you have to be fluid and make the best decision at the time based on the facts as they present themselves a year from now. Deciding today that you need to make a decision to get someone in the first round as if that is the only place that you can find a franchise quarterback is my complaint. What you and others seem to intimate is that we can't find our guy later in the draft or even find a UDFA who can fill the need but instead are compellled to move up into the top 10 picks. Hence the pages full of arguments about why first round guys take their team to the Superbowls more often than UDFAs.

I disagree with that kind of concrete simplistic thinking preferring to wait until the time and make the decision based on the best information at the time according to our needs and available pool of draft choices.

Is that too hard to grasp?

[top dawg]

So critiquing and analyzing=whining and crying?

...but just ignoring the subject altogether is the mark of a true fan isn't it?

RB, you and I are like blood brothers when it comes to this ideology.

Sometimes you have to dig waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyy down, and spin an issue like a top to keep these people on point.

This is a fan/team forum, damn it! The team ain't perfect, and there's always an issue to be discussed.

P.S. Zod, you're welcome!

[panthers55]

not anymore premature than assuming that QB won't be.

we have to be getting ready for the next QB fairly soon. jake won't likely last longer than 3 years. is moore the next one? i'd like to do everything we can and check out all available options before we crown him the future king.

wouldn't that seem like a rational and logical thing to do?

if there is someone in that draft next year who can be better for the panthers and they are within reach, wouldn't you want us to get him?

As I have already said, my issue is with the notion that we have to pick someone in the first round in order to have a decent chance to find a franchise quarterback. That is not to say that we shouldn't do it if we think that our guy is there and he is our best option and we won't find someone of comparable ability in later rounds.

As for ensuring that Moore is the guy before we crown him, exactly how do you do that without yanking Jake and starting him for the next 16 games? Do you think that the Patriots knew Cassel was the answer before Brady got hurt? Do you think Arizona should start Leinert or Warner? Maybe they should draft another first round quarterback given that Leinert hasn't developed as fast as people think he should?

Backups are there to backup the starter. Most of the time you don't know what you have until you need them. If we want to ensure that a quarterback is the answer before entrusting the offense to them, you would opt for veteran backups with a track record not draft choices. That is the exact philosophy that Fox believes in but gets blasted for it by you and others.

As long as you are relying on untested unproven rookies with little or no experience, you can't be sure until you actually start them. Preseason for example isn't really that telling. Carr for eample had a good preseason when he was here but we see how that translated to the actual season.

[goncrazi]

what in the last decade has caused you to believe that they might not be able to pick the right QB?

• 2001 - Chris Weinke, 4th round, 106th overall, 2-18 record as an NFL starter; out of football
  
• 2002 - Randy Fasani, 5th round, 137th overall, cummulative stats: 15 of 44 for 171 yards, 0 TDs and 4 INTs; out of football
  
• 2005 - Stefan LeFors, 4th round, 121st overall; served as a reserve QB for one season; currently a backup QB in the CFL
  

Just sayin...

[panthers55]

• 2001 - Chris Weinke, 4th round, 106th overall, 2-18 record as an NFL starter; out of football
  
• 2002 - Randy Fasani, 5th round, 137th overall, cummulative stats: 15 of 44 for 171 yards, 0 TDs and 4 INTs; out of football
  
• 2005 - Stefan LeFors, 4th round, 121st overall; served as a reserve QB for one season; currently a backup QB in the CFL
  

Just sayin...

C'mon now. You know we don't ever draft a quarterback.

Now lets look at the record of quarterbacks we ****** from someone else.

Jake 63-32

Moore 2-1

Beuerlein 25-32

Kind of makes you wonder if we could do it with a first rounder either. We would end up being the one to pick the guy that doesn't make it.

On the other hand if the guys we drafted come through this year, I might believe that we have turned the corner on our picks and can get a quarterback in the draft who will justify the price it will take to sign him. Then I might be more optimist about our chances of landing our next franchise quarterback in the draft.