Top QBs: Last 16 years

[frash.exe]

In my opinion, a more realistic stat to start with when evaluating QBs is their win-loss percentage. There have been a slew of QBs thru the years who threw for lots of yards but didn't achieve many wins. Conversely, there have been those who didn't top the stats but won big. It's all about fitting in with the system in place on any given team. The QB rating system is a joke, just look on the Hall of Fame's list to see who is on it, and more importantly, who is not!

Another useful stat is comeback wins, i.e., how many times in how many opportunities has a QB led his team to win, or at least tie, in the 4th quarter?

Stats don't mean much unless a correlation can be made with success, or lack there of.

That's mostly Jake's style. It's his pattern of play to start out slow and finish with a bang. Most other QBs don't do that, primarily because, by the fourth quarter, they've built a 20 point lead or whatever, and they can slow down.

Jake is the king of comebacks. Nobody disputes that. But that doesn't make up the entire body of work.

[frash.exe]

RB, the problem being that you come in biased and skew all the "facts" to fit whatever your preconceived ideas happen to be. For example,

But you're not counting the 8th through 12th round guys that would just end up being UDFAs today, right? I guess those guys "don't count", just like the NFLE/USFL guys "don't count" because they'd have CFL experience today instead.

Here are some facts from that same list...

Total QBs round 6 or lower, including UDFAs: 32.2%

Total QBs drafted round 1: 35.2%

Total times the lower rated QBs appeared: 28.1%

Total times the 1st round QBs appeared: 41%

And yet, you still refer to late round & UDFAs as "low-reward" If anything, these stats show that the late round/UDFA path is the better way to go. Especially when considering the huge money round 1 QBs get no matter how well they play.

rocknrolla go name CFL QBs that have made it good in the NFL since Jeff Garcia 1 2 3 GO

[R0CKnR0LLA]

rocknrolla go name CFL QBs that have made it good in the NFL since Jeff Garcia 1 2 3 GO

There are few players from the CFL because the more talented players went to NFLE instead. Now it's not there, so they CFL should see an increase in talent pool. I've explained this once already, what's so hard to understand?

Most of the guys are from NFLE because that's where the better non-signed players went. Now they will go to the CFL or Arena instead. You're really only pushing out the bottom of the barrel guys, and should only effect these percentages marginally, if at all. The guys that actually have a shot at making it to the NFL eventually should still find places to play and develop.

[frash.exe]

Say we traded up in the 1st round and get any one of the three QB's that you so desperately want us to take. Pick whichever one you want. These QB's went 19 or higher. So not only are we going to have to give up next years 1st but also a 3rd and 5th this year. (that is being generous)

So we have a QB now, You gotta put him at the helm right away. Gotta cut one QB (Moore). We also lost Everett Brown and Duke Robinson because of the decision.

According to your stats and mine this guy has a 50/50 chance of becoming a star. If he success we still lose. We never addressed our issues on defense enough to fix our problem. So we will hopefully rely on Meeks and UDFA to fix those issues.

If he fails. Now we lost 3 young players in Moore, Edwards and Robinson. Our offense now has to either go back to Jake or onto McCown. We have to keep Freeman because you cannot just let a 1st rounder go after one year.

You say "you have to put the chips in and go for it" All for the POSSIBILITY of a 1st rounder being the next superstar. The sad part is. He might eventually be better than Jake but are you willing to throw away 3 or 4 season waiting for him to blossom?

We are on the cusp of being Championship caliber. You want to throw a new QB in because you don't like Jake? Thank god you aren't the GM. We would be the Lions SOUTH.

My opinion is and alot of other agree. (including Management) Jake CAN get the job done and our backups are capable players.

It doesn't have anything to do with that.

First of all, I think you are deliberately steering the conversation this way. You're creating these awkward hypotheticals when, in reality, if they actually were that daring and went through with what you said, would you disagree with the decision they made or would you side with them just because that's what you feel compelled to do?

Moore wouldn't be the QB i cut (McCown). Plus, Meeks has done a terrific job with late round defensive selections like Cato June, Freddy Keiaho, Robert Mathis, Jason David, Clint Session.........it's basically been plug-and-play with that defense in Indy since Ron had been there. If we field top 10 defense this year, I'll tell you damn well it'll be more because of Meeks than anything else, ...even our first draft pick this year, that, BTW, actually cost us a first round pick + the second we got if you think about it. Kind of a high price tag for a guy that has a chance of not panning out? ..oh wait you don't think that because in your mind only QBs can bust. Any other position is a fair investment, however.

...we're not the Lions. We have plenty more talent to go around. So I don't know why you're so quick to compare us to them before a team, say, like the Ravens, a team who's more our style (besides the 3-4). The Ravens have the foundation in place to cradle a first round QB. So do we. 2970 passing yards is only where it starts with Flacco.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

We had to use a first AND second to get Everette Brown huh? I guess Otah cost us a 2nd, 4th and two 1st rounders

[frash.exe]

There are few players from the CFL because the more talented players went to NFLE instead. Now it's not there, so they CFL should see an increase in talent pool. I've explained this once already, what's so hard to understand?

guys weren't going to NFLE not because they were unsigned, but mostly because they were picked up UDFAs and the teams they represented could farm them over there.

In the end your theory is just a theory, and only open-ended if anything at all. Jeff Garcia's pretty much the last CFL QB to really be considered anything much, and a) he's never played in a superbowl, he's never even led an NFL team to a championship game, and c) he's still not the calibre of a Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, etc.

...one thing I was wrong about. Kurt Warner actually did play Arena League. But then again, he had to hurdle through Arena Football and the NFLE before he got a chance on an NFL team. He needed that long to develop into who he is now, and in the years since Warner has emerged, I haven't seen Arena League QBs pop up everywhere in the NFL.

Another most successful UDFA, Warren Moon was not picked up by any team because despite his exceptional talent, back 20 years ago, yes it could be said he faced an uphill battle with teams who weren't keen to the idea of a black NFL QB. He wasn't just some scrub who happened to walk in the CFL and start trailblazing. Today a black QB with similar passing stats just got drafted 40-something overall (Pat White).

[R0CKnR0LLA]

I don't think it's a "theory" that Arena/CFL will see an increase in talent with NFLE and USFL gone. That's more like logic and common sense.

[panthers55]

this is like the 5th time its been brought up over the off-season. that said i remember doing a 10 year search of all the qbs drafted over that time and found similar numbers looking at top 5 passer rating and SB Qbs. same thing kept cropping up. 1st rounds were around 30%, others rounds and UDFA each 10% or lower.

bottom line yes the "bust" rate is there with a 1st round qb, but if you want a top flight passer (that gets to SB, passer rating whatever), your more likely to find one in the 1st than try any other round or UDFA.

In the past 10 Super bowls lets compare the winning QB -round taken, passer rating during the regular season, and the defensive ranking on the most important stat which is points allowed. This is what it reveals:

2009-Roethlisburger(Pittsburgh) 1st rd, rating-24th-points allowed-1st

2008-E Manning(Giants)-1st rounder-rating-25th-points allowed-17th

2007-P Manning(Colts)-1st rounder-rating-1st- points allowed-23rd

2006-TBrady(NE)-6th rounder- rating 10th-points allowed-17th

2005-Roethlisburger(Pitt)-1st rounder-rating 5th-points allowed-1st

2004-Brady(NE)-6th rounder-rating 6th-points allowed-1st

2003-Johnson(Tampa)9th rounder-passer rating-4th-points allowed-1st

2002-Brady (NE)6th rounder-passer rating 6th-points allowed-6th

2001-Dilfer(Balt)-1st rounder-passer rating 24th-points allowed-1st

2000-Warner (StLouis) undrafted-passer rating-1st- points allowed-4th

What do I see here? The round the quarterback was taken in does not seem that telling. Some guys picked in the first had good years like P Manning, Roethlisberger the first time, and Johnson. Some 1st rounders had bad years and they still won. And the same holds true for late rounders and undrafted guys, some had good years and some did not. But the stat that correlates most highly from what I see is the defense not the offense. 7 out of the 10 years the defense finished 6th or higher in points surrendered. In fully 5 of the ten, the team that gave up the fewest points in the regular season won the Superbowl regardless of the quarterback's draft position or level of play.

The other factors that aren't accounted for are how much better or worse each unit played in the playoffs versus the regular season and whether they stepped up their game.

But for my money I would stop arguing about whether we need a first round quarterback and start arguing about how we can improve our defense to be the tops in the league. Seems that traditionally is what wins Super Bowls.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

But for my money I would stop arguing about whether we need a first round quarterback and start arguing about how we can improve our defense to be the tops in the league. Seems that traditionally is what wins Super Bowls.

I totally agree with that. Considering the monster running game we have, defense is a much bigger priority than QB in my mind. That 2003 defense was a big reason why we made it to the SB. I'm hopeful Meeks can turn things around, and that our rookies work out, though the DLine is still a big question mark for me.

[rayzor]

so we should not try to get a good QB in the 1st round next year?

do you have a lack of faith in don gregory to scout a good one?

do you not have faith in hurney to find a good QB in the first round on par with the talent that we have drafted in the first round this decade?

what if he is the BPA?

what if all other needs are essentially addressed much more-so than QB?

what will most likely be the glaring needs that have to be addressed in the early part of the draft next year?

[panthers55]

so we should not try to get a good QB in the 1st round next year?

do you have a lack of faith in don gregory to scout a good one?

do you not have faith in hurney to find a good QB in the first round on par with the talent that we have drafted in the first round this decade?

what if he is the BPA?

what if all other needs are essentially addressed much more-so than QB?

what will most likely be the glaring needs that have to be addressed in the early part of the draft next year?

Don't have a first rounder next year for starters.

Secondly it should be the BPA but that is also in relationship to what positions we are looking at, where they were projected to go versus who has fallen, etc. For example if I had 3 guys all rated the same, then I would go for greatest need as well as look at will a guy close to his ability be available in lower rounds or is right now the only time I will get a shot to get a guy with this talent in this draft at a position of need.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

If he's BPA, maybe, depends on the difference from him to the next guy. Personally I'd like to see us get a premier DT, and if Peppers is gone, then add DE to that as well.

I have a ton of faith in our scouting department. But considering you see nearly the same % of elite QBs come from round 6 and later than round 1, you can just as easily say, use that great scouting department to pick a late round/UDFA gem.

[mantal]

We need a QB for the future, but do we need to be desperate for one? No. We may already have him on our roster and we have a couple of years to decide. It's not desperation time except here...

[rayzor]

Don't have a first rounder next year for starters.

Secondly it should be the BPA but that is also in relationship to what positions we are looking at, where they were projected to go versus who has fallen, etc. For example if I had 3 guys all rated the same, then I would go for greatest need as well as look at will a guy close to his ability be available in lower rounds or is right now the only time I will get a shot to get a guy with this talent in this draft at a position of need.

you don't think that hurney (bobby beatheard, jr) couldn't swing a 1st rounder if we wanted? we still have a 1st in 2011...

plus, what position on the offense, a rather well stacked offense, would be a higher priority? TE?

If he's BPA, maybe, depends on the difference from him to the next guy. Personally I'd like to see us get a premier DT, and if Peppers is gone, then add DE to that as well.

I have a ton of faith in our scouting department. But considering you see nearly the same % of elite QBs come from round 6 and later than round 1, you can just as easily say, use that great scouting department to pick a late round/UDFA gem.

although we have to watch next year to see, i think that if pep goes we would be fine with brown/johnson.

a premiere DT...that would be nice but if long term QB is as high a need as a DT and we have a QB more in reach, do we not go for the QB?

re: "considering you see nearly the same % of elite QBs come from round 6 and later than round 1"

compare the number of rd 6 or UDFAs taken with the number of 1st rounders and what has the better rate of success?

can't tell you about the UDFAs but comparing the 1st and 6th rounds

since 1998:

1st round

33 taken

10 probowlers (33%)

5 multiple probowls (15%)

23 starting multiple years (70%)

6th round

24 drafted

4 probowlers (17%)

4 multiple probowlers (17%)

4 starting multiple years (17%)

rounds 2-5 are abysmal and the 7th equally so.

not to put too much weight on the probowl but QBs who go there are usually pretty good. imo, it's a good bar to set concerning QBs.

We need a QB for the future, but do we need to be desperate for one? No. We may already have him on our roster and we have a couple of years to decide. It's not desperation time except here...

no desperation and drafting one next year wouldn't be showing it. it would be taking advantage of a great class of QBs.

what i am saying is QB of the future is a concern. it is the weakest position on our offense...on an offense as good as this one that isn't a horrible thing to say. if you are saying it's the weakest position on the 49ers...that's pretty bad.