What are the chances Medlock stays a Panther?

[Toolbox]

Hell I would take morten anderson over mare and the dude is 80 or something now.

[PantherPhann89]

If Medlock is a better kicker, I hope so...

[ElkinPanthersFan]

much rather have him than mare.

Anything inside 35 yards, I'd take Panthro.

Over 35, Saltman's gotta real strong boot.

[panthers55]

Taking it over 1 year, 2012:

Mare bonus acceleration = $3,000,000 hit to the cap

Medlock salary = $390,000

Total cost = $3,390,000

Minus Mare salary = $2,100,000

Net cap impact = $1,290,000 negative

Taking it over 1 year, 2013:

Mare dead money = $0 hit to the cap

Medlock salary = $390,000

Total cost = $390,000

Minus Mare salary = $2,200,000

Net cap impact = $1,810,000 positive

Taking it over 2 years, 2012:

Mare bonus acceleration = $1,500,000 hit to the cap

Medlock salary = $390,000

Total cost = $1,890,000

Minus Mare salary = $2,100,000

Net cap impact = $210,000 positive

Taking it over 2 years, 2013:

Mare dead money = $1,500,000 hit to the cap

Medlock salary = $390,000

Total cost = $1,890,000

Minus Mare salary = $2,200,000

Net cap impact = $310,000 positive

My point stands. Should they do it all this year, it is not a very large impact. Should they do it over two years, it has a positive impact on this year's cap. It just depends on what their plans are for our cap space this year. In either case, those that say Mare won't be cut due to cap implications are wrong.

Your analysis is confusing and inaccurate because you are mixing salary and cap hit which are different. If we cut Mare this year and we keep Medlock the salary we spend is 390,000 thousand for Medlock and save Mare's salary of 2,200,000 plus another 100,000 bonus or a positive amount of $1,910,000.

If we are talking cap hit then cutting him gives up a 3,390,000 cap hit as you noted versus a 2,800,000 cap hit which counts the 2,100,000 salary, the 1,000,000 prorated signing bonus cap hit for 2012 and the 100,000 additional bonus if we keep him minus the cap savings for cutting Medlock. So keeping him is net positive for 590,000 year 1. Cutting him is obviously then 590,000 negative.

Your 2013 figures are wrong because first of all Medlock's salary is 480,000 not 390000 in 2013. The salary savings would be 2200000 plus a 100000 bonus for Mare minus the 480000 which is 1,820,000.

There would be no cap hit for Mare and a 480,000 cap hit for Medlock in 2013 if we cut Mare in 2012 and keep Metlock. If we planned on keeping Mare for 2012 and 2013 versus keeping Medlock, then the cap hit for keeping him is 2,200,000 plus a 100000 bonus plus a cap hit of 1000000 for the prorated signing bonus minus the savings for cutting Medlock of 480,000 for a total of 2,820,000.

Go back if you wish and rework the numbers for a June 1st cut separating salary from cap hit but honestly whether we save the numbers in 2012 or 2013 really doesn't matter since it works out the same as I noted above.

The reality is that cutting Mare and keeping Medlock will have a positive salary and cap effect if he can do the job as well or better. That is a no brainer. I was just being obsessive about the numbers. Here is a link for salary reference:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/justin-medlock/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/olindo-mare/

[KSpan]

The only question that matters is this: Worst case, is it worth a $1M cap hit to have a better, arguably significantly better, chance of winning?

The answer is yes.

[Argus Plexus]

Fu*k all you wannabe analysts, Mare chokes more than a gay porn star. He needs to go.

[TheRed]

Rivera will give Medlock his chance. He doesn't give a damn how much Mare is paid.

[panthers55]

Fu*k all you wannabe analysts, Mare chokes more than a gay porn star. He needs to go.

Spoken by a guy who likely isn't smarter than a fifth grader and couldn't do the analysis or even follow it.

[Marguide]

The reality is that cutting Mare and keeping Medlock will have a positive salary and cap effect if he can do the job as well or better. That is a no brainer. I was just being obsessive about the numbers. Here is a link for salary reference:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/justin-medlock/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/olindo-mare/

You may have found my analysis confusing, but to me it is much clearer to lay the numbers out by themselves without throwing them in the middle of paragraphs.

I use the same site you do for salary info, so if we have a difference of $100,000 here or there, it is more a function of reading the info wrong.

My points are these: 1)You cannot look at the cap hit of a cut player simply based on what happens with the accelerated bonus charge. Salary must be considered as well, as that is just as much a part of the cap as the bonus, and 2)over the next 2 years (no matter how we do it), cutting Mare would have a net positive impact on our cap, not negative. Therefore, if we keep him, it is because of anticipated performance, and not "what he costs us" as some on the board have suggested.

That's it.

P.S. If you want another example of how many are mis-informed re: cap hits and ability to make roster moves, do the same exercise with DWill and a possible cut in 2013.

[Argus Plexus]

Spoken by a guy who likely isn't smarter than a fifth grader and couldn't do the analysis or even follow it.

I scored 128 on an IQ test in 7th grade, my intelligence is just fine thank you.

[TripleTrouble]

I for one am glad we had Mare this past year. If not for him, we would have been 7-9 or 8-8 and we would've missed out on my boy Luke. That being said. I appreciate his contribution to the team...bye-bye.

[EMSMedic79]

Medlock > Mare ..... now he just needs to prove it in preseason.

[La Pantera]

I scored 128 on an IQ test in 7th grade, my intelligence is just fine thank you.

Let me guess. You were also a DR by the age of fourteen. You had to find time, from being a boy genius, to hang out, go to parties, find a girlfriend and kick it with your best friend Vinny???

[Argus Plexus]

Let me guess. You were also a DR by the age of fourteen. You had to find time, from being a boy genius, to hang out, go to parties, find a girlfriend and kick it with your best friend Vinny???

How did you guess?