Here is why I think the Panthers will go 9-7 at best

[panthers55]

It is a well known fact among the media and the fans that John Fox dictates what the coordinators do. There was an article about it two years about how he was over writings Davidsons play calling. He did the same thing with Mike Trgovac. Why else do you think he wanted to leave so badly?

It is a point of speculation among fans and media that Fox meddles in the defense when coordinators struggle. I have read no article that suggests that Fox meddles or micromanages the coordinatoors when things are going well. If you have an article then share it. I just did an internet search and could find nothing. I have also found nothing from Trgovac himself that suggest that the reason he left was because he didn't like Fox meddling in his business. It is just as likely that Trgo realized he was in over his head and decided to drop back to a position coach which is less stressful and requires fewer hours and less commitment.

http://www.heraldonline.com/sports/story/1077896.html

[CardiacCat893490]

I don't care what our record is as long as the bucs, saints, and falcons have a worse record than us

[Nu Guns]

It is a point of speculation among fans and media that Fox meddles in the defense when coordinators struggle. I have read no article that suggests that Fox meddles or micromanages the coordinatoors when things are going well. If you have an article then share it. I just did an internet search and could find nothing. I have also found nothing from Trgovac himself that suggest that the reason he left was because he didn't like Fox meddling in his business. It is just as likely that Trgo realized he was in over his head and decided to drop back to a position coach which is less stressful and requires fewer hours and less commitment.

http://www.heraldonline.com/sports/story/1077896.html

Ughh

I have heard Fox meddles in the defense on many occasions....I am not going to waste my time finding a source. Panther55....honestly have you never heard that said about Fox??

I dont recall where I have heard this....but I know it wasnt here.

[panthers55]

Ughh

I have heard Fox meddles in the defense on many occasions....I am not going to waste my time finding a source. Panther55....honestly have you never heard that said about Fox??

I dont recall where I have heard this....but I know it wasnt here.

It has been noted on 2 occasions. Gantt discussed it on numerous blogs. In 2007 when our defense really struggled and again this year after the bye. On both occasions the defense was struggling and Fox attempted to fix it, not meddle or screw it up. As I mentioned any good leader is obligated to get involved when someone or something under his control screws up. That is his job and obligation. That doesn't mean he micromanages his people when they are doing well or that he dictates or limits what they can do. And that is what the implication has been in this thread and among his critics. What some call meddling could easily be called supporting and offering helpful advice. Both look alike but the connotations are very different. When we had good defenses in 2003, 2005 and 2006 this never came up. If he was a control freak it would have been an issue all along.

[Nu Guns]

He does have a defensive back ground, nevermind the fact he is the head coach.

I not opposed to him giving his 2 cents, I was just saying I have heard this said about him on numerous occasions.

[Happy Panther]

i prefer the ignore button.

seriously. if you don't like somebody discussing the panthers on A PANTHERS DISCUSSION BOARD then just read somebody else's posts

[Happy Panther]

So how many of the 8+ crowd has stepped up and layed the money as I suggested yesterday?

Raise your hand. :seeya:

I bet there aren't any. :sifone:

I have $500 with a friend so far. The Vegas line of 8 is not tempting enough.

[Happy Panther]

You guys have good points regardng the strength of schedule. Here is an article talking about SF and CAR SOS this year:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/28/856882/movin-on-up-in-the-2010-draft-how

Before wrapping things up, I'd just like to caution those of you out there who might want to consult SF's and CAR's strengths of schedule (SOS) in 2009 when experimenting with possible record combinations. In other words, I would advise against paying any attention to the fact that, based on their opponents' 2008 records, SF has the 7th-easiest 2009 schedule, while CAR has the 2nd-most difficult. Here's why: A team's SOS before the season, which is based on its opponents' previous-season records, has no practical relationship with its actual SOS or its actual win-loss record once the season has played out. In other words, just because the Panthers have the 2nd-most difficult 2009 schedule as of right now, don't think for even one second that (a) their schedule is actually going to be that tough, if tough at all, or ( their 2009 record is actually going to be any worse than if they had the easiest before-the-season SOS. Basically, it turns out that we can't predict anything about CAR's 2009 SOS or how many games they're going to win in 2009 based on what their 2009 opponents did in 2008.

Just in case you don't believe me, or you don't want to just trust me on this, here is a table that shows the correlations between before-the-season SOS, actual SOS, and actual win-loss record for each of the past 5 seasons:

(See the article)

For the non-stat folks out there, an asterisk (*) in the table means there's a 95% likelihood that the given relationship is real (i.e., it's not a statistical mirage), while two asterisks (**) means there's a 99% likelihood. Also, see here for my previous description of what the direction (+ or -) and value of a correlation mean. If these last two sentences made your brain explode, just look for asterisks and numbers farther away from 0 (provided you can still read despite brain detonation).

As the table shows, 2008 was the only season (of the last 5) in which a team's actual SOS was related at all to its before-the-season SOS. Of course, even this 2008 relationship is pretty useless in terms of prognostication when you consider the fact that a team's before-the-season SOS in 2008 was totally unrelated to how many games it actually won. Furthermore, all those asterisks and bigger numbers in the right-most column, which suggest a consistent statistical relationship between actual SOS and actual win-loss record, are pretty useless as well because we have to wait until after the season to calculate them. In other words, we can't use actual SOS to predict a team's record for the upcoming season because we can't find out their actual SOS until after the season.

Finally, some clever NN readers out there might think it's necessary to adjust these correlations for each team's record in the previous season because (a) the NFL schedule is created, in part, based on where each team finished in the standings; and ( winning teams one year are more likely to be winning teams the next year. Well, first off, the latter isn't actually the case: The correlation between team wins from one year to the next is not statistically significant. More importantly, though, I tested out this adjustment, and it didn't change the above table in any meaningful way.

Pretty interesting stuff

[carolinanimal]

You guys have good points regardng the strength of schedule. Here is an article talking about SF and CAR SOS this year:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/4/28/856882/movin-on-up-in-the-2010-draft-how

Pretty interesting stuff

sooo. basically what he is saying is that real sos cant be figured out until after the season. Well duh!!!!

Whats funny to me is that everyone can recognize that we were a 12-4 team last year and are returning our starters, blah, blah, blah.... but all the other teams that had winning records on our schedule will all of a sudden just suck.

[Happy Panther]

sooo. basically what he is saying is that real sos cant be figured out until after the season. Well duh!!!!

Whats funny to me is that everyone can recognize that we were a 12-4 team last year and are returning our starters, blah, blah, blah.... but all the other teams that had winning records on our schedule will all of a sudden just suck.

I don't think that is the point of the article. The point is there should be some correlation between SOS before the season and record but there does not appear to be. I will note that 1 of 5 years shows correlation and in all cases the corelation is slightly positive. I am not a stats guy but I wonder what 10 or 20 years of data would show. I bet that the correlation is more like .25 or .33. i.e. a weak but predictive variable. This may be a case of selective statistics. or not i may go google it.

The way I see this is our 12-4 record last year is likely correlated to a weak SOS after the season. So to replicate 12-4 again we have to hope that our SOS ends up as weak again. and we have to hope that we do everything right.

I hope it happens but I just don't see it.

[panthers55]

sooo. basically what he is saying is that real sos cant be figured out until after the season. Well duh!!!!

Whats funny to me is that everyone can recognize that we were a 12-4 team last year and are returning our starters, blah, blah, blah.... but all the other teams that had winning records on our schedule will all of a sudden just suck.

That logic could be reversed as well. We were a 12-4 last year so why will we suck and go 9-7 or worse this year. Strength of schedule? The teams we have on our schedule in the AFC East have a harder schedule as well given they play the NFC South and AFC South. For example Miami had the NFC West and the AFC West on their schedule last year (two of the easiest divisions in football historically). What is to say they don't go 7-9 this year.

That is why this whole strength of schedule debate is useless.

[joemac]

I don't think that is the point of the article. The point is there should be some correlation between SOS before the season and record but there does not appear to be. I will note that 1 of 5 years shows correlation and in all cases the corelation is slightly positive. I am not a stats guy but I wonder what 10 or 20 years of data would show. I bet that the correlation is more like .25 or .33. i.e. a weak but predictive variable. This may be a case of selective statistics. or not i may go google it.

The way I see this is our 12-4 record last year is likely correlated to a weak SOS after the season. So to replicate 12-4 again we have to hope that our SOS ends up as weak again. and we have to hope that we do everything right.

I hope it happens but I just don't see it.

Why do we have to have a weak SOS in order to have a good record??? Do you not have enough faith in the roster and coaches to pull it off?

Personally I think that we have the potential to have a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense. That will carry us to a very good record IMO...

[Happy Panther]

Why do we have to have a weak SOS in order to have a good record??? Do you not have enough faith in the roster and coaches to pull it off?

...

read the article. Basically when you play tough teams you lose. last year we played weak teams so we won.

Sure I'm not saying we couldn't end up with a truly tough schedule and go 12-4 but we would have to improve on last year which was a great year for team dynamics and structure.

[Happy Panther]

That logic could be reversed as well. We were a 12-4 last year so why will we suck and go 9-7 or worse this year. Strength of schedule? The teams we have on our schedule in the AFC East have a harder schedule as well given they play the NFC South and AFC South. For example Miami had the NFC West and the AFC West on their schedule last year (two of the easiest divisions in football historically). What is to say they don't go 7-9 this year.

That is why this whole strength of schedule debate is useless.

pre-season SOS is useless, agreed.