Panther point differential, by week

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

The question was brought up, "why are we so bad in week 1"? This got me to thinking, what weeks are we historically better/worse? So, I ran some statistics based on point differential. Take it for what its worth.

Week 1 Point Dif -3.24 (n 17, min -28, max 23) Win% 35.29

Week 2 Point Dif -.53 (n 17, min -22, max 24) Win% 47.06

Week 3 Point Dif -1.69 (n 13, min -21, max 24) Win% 46.15

Week 4 Point Dif -1.73 (n 15, min -21, max 20) Win% 33.33

Week 5 Point Dif -0.31 (n 16, min -28, max 34) Win% 43.75

Week 6 Point Dif -5.00 (n 15, min -24, max 15) Win% 40.00

Week 7 Point Dif -.007 (n 15, min-30, max 32) Win% 42.86

Week 8 Point Dif -1.24 (n 17, min -24, max 25) Win% 41.18

Week 9 Point Dif -2.46 (n 13, min-34, max 25) Win% 46.15

Week 10 Point Dif 0.18 (n 17, min -27, max 27) Win% 47.06

Week 11 Point Dif -4.12 (n 17, min -34, max 25) Win% 35.29

Week 12 Point Dif 1.41 (n 17, min -41, max 24) Win% 50.00

Week 13 Point Dif -0.35 (n 17, min -31, max 25) Win% 52.94

Week 14 Point Dif 1.19 (n 16, min -21, max 24) Win% 50.00

Week 15 Point Dif 1.88 (n 17, min -34, max 20) Win% 58.82

Week 16 Point Dif 2.88 (n 17, min -24, max 32) Win% 58.82

Week 17 Point Dif -0.88 (n 17, min -43, max 33) Win% 58.82

Interestingly, we seem to struggle the absolute most in weeks 1,6, and 11. We are much stronger team after week 10 (except for week 11) having our only 5 positive point differentials and our only 6 non-losing win percentages.

[cultclassiccat]

% shows us winning more later in the season. I like that.

[Inimicus]

So Dr Jenkins, a request...

What do those numbers look like for a team like Green Bay?

I don't know how much effort goes into making that chart so if its a lot don't sweat it but if its a reasonably simple matter it would be interesting to see if all teams demonstrate that late increase.

It doesnt seem out of line to assume that all teams will get better over the course of the year as they get more and more "in sync"

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

So Dr Jenkins, a request...

What do those numbers look like for a team like Green Bay?

I don't know how much effort goes into making that chart so if its a lot don't sweat it but if its a reasonably simple matter it would be interesting to see if all teams demonstrate that late increase.

It doesnt seem out of line to assume that all teams will get better over the course of the year as they get more and more "in sync"

Statistically speaking it is impossible for all NFL teams win% or point differential to increase as the season progresses. Simply because the NFL is a closed system and the teams play each other.

For every win one NFL team gains, another team must produce a loss. Same can be equated for point differential.

Think of it like this, in week 1, 16 teams will win and 16 teams will lose. That is the same for every week 1. So the total number of wins and losses when all NFL teams over any period of time are added together, the win% will equal 0.50. Our 35.29 week 1 win percentage means that a number of teams, will have a >.50 in order to bring our equation back to equal. Same is true for the end of the year

[panthers55]

The problem with any of these timeline comparisons is that what we have done historically has little bearing on the present. If we had the same coach for all those years or if we had the same coach now, it might be relevant. But if you want to look at Rivera, the only important information is 2011. I don't think you can extrapolate much from the past that will predict the future.

[Inimicus]

Statistically speaking it is impossible for all NFL teams win% or point differential to increase as the season progresses. Simply because the NFL is a closed system and the teams play each other.

For every win one NFL team gains, another team must produce a loss. Same can be equated for point differential.

Ill have to take your word for it as statistics were never my strong suit. But it seems to me that its not as straight forward as because 1 team has a 75% win rate in week 15 there has to be a team with a 25% rate. I know that's not exactly what you're saying either but that's the jist of it.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

The problem with any of these timeline comparisons is that what we have done historically has little bearing on the present. If we had the same coach for all those years or if we had the same coach now, it might be relevant. But if you want to look at Rivera, the only important information is 2011. I don't think you can extrapolate much from the past that will predict the future.

This is very true. But, There are a number of consistancies worth mentioning. Stadium (50% of the time), weather, owner, general philosophies. Not enough to varify anything of course. What influences outside of players do you feel affect the outcome of the game? Though players tend to remain a constant for approximatly 3-6 years.

[panthers55]

This is very true. But, There are a number of consistancies worth mentioning. Stadium (50% of the time), weather, owner, general philosophies. Not enough to varify anything of course. What influences outside of players do you feel affect the outcome of the game? Though players tend to remain a constant for approximatly 3-6 years.

I think that weather and owner have little to nothing to do with whether the Panthers win this week or next particularly early although the owner has a big impact obviously on who we pick as players or coaches. Obviously weather later in the year can make a huge difference especially in a place like New England or Buffalo.

What has the biggest impact in my opinion for the Panthers?? The coaches. Some folks put a ton of significance in starting off strong and fast while others like Fox for example seemed to be looking at the long haul and wanted consistency. The preached the 3-1 philosophy for every quarter for example while others preach win every one and getting on a roll.

Obviously whenever you make generalities there will always be exceptions to the rule.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

I think that weather and owner have little to nothing to do with whether the Panthers win this week or next particularly early although the owner has a big impact obviously on who we pick as players or coaches. Obviously weather later in the year can make a huge difference especially in a place like New England or Buffalo.

What has the biggest impact in my opinion for the Panthers?? The coaches. Some folks put a ton of significance in starting off strong and fast while others like Fox for example seemed to be looking at the long haul and wanted consistency. The preached the 3-1 philosophy for every quarter for example while others preach win every one and getting on a roll.

Obviously whenever you make generalities there will always be exceptions to the rule.

Well, I could run a MANOVA (multivariate analysis of variance) using factors such as coach, location, weather, even fan attendence but, I am just not that bored. lol

[panthers55]

Well, I could run a MANOVA (multivariate analysis of variance) using factors such as coach, location, weather, even fan attendence but, I am just not that bored. lol

Other than coaches the one factor that likely will make a bigger difference than all the rest is franchise quarterback.