Why Have the Panthers Historically Done So Bad in Week 1?

[Seltzer]

So I was thinking about the Week 1 game against Tampa, which I think is a must win if the Panthers are going to make the Playoffs this year. I do think it is winnable game, but there is something about Week 1 that is scary to any long-time Panther fan.

First off, out of 17 seasons, the Panthers have only won 6 times (1996,2001,2002,2003,2007,2008) for a winning percentage of ~35%. That certainly is a bad number. A very bad number really, and a real bummer to start the season (and usually a bad omen).

Of the Panthers 4 playoff appearances (1996,2003,2005,2008), only 1 time did they make the playoffs when they didn't win Week 1. Conversely, from a historcal perspective, a win in Week 1 usually means a good season.

Capers only won the opener 1 of 4 times. Seifert won 1 of out 3 (however, his team went on to lose 15 straight).

Fox won 4 out of 9 (44% percent), which is closer to the all-time winning percentage of the Panthers 131-150 (~47%) and closer to the 50% overall winning percentage Fox had overall.

Fox, despite his flaws, is obviously the best coach the Panthers have had up until this point, although I am hopeful Rivera will surpass him. And I think it is undisputable Fox's best work came early in his tenure and it was well past time for both sides to move on before the trainwreck of 2010.

Anyway, back to the present, I think Week 1 is a HUGE game for Rivera as a coach, and the Panthers as a team. As Fox used to say, "They're all big" but I do think the opening game against Tampa is going to set the tone for what kind of season the Panthers will have but it may also speak volumes about Rivera long term as a coach.

I certainly give Rivera a pass for last year Week 1 as the Panthers put up a great effort despite little time to prepare against the Cardinals on the road with Newton making his first start and Rivera his first game as HC. However, the Panthers should have the advantage this year in terms of preparation having a full off-season and continuity on the coaching staff versus a Tampa team with new coaches and more question marks.

That being said, I don't think Tampa will be a pushover by any means and there is considerable talent on their team, especially on offense. Still, this is a game I expect the Panthers to win.

It certainly would be a great way to start the season considering the many blunders of Week 1.

[Dex]

[bigdog10]

The panthers always seem to stumble in the opener. I didn't realize that we had only won six out of our seventeen openers. That is a pretty pathetic stat.

Week one is a statement game this year. They need to come out and hang 30+ on the Bucs while the defense holds them to around 14.

That would be a nice jumpstart to the season.

[csx]

Becuase the team has only had 4 winning seasons in 17 years with one .500 season. They just haven't been good.

[Seltzer]

Becuase the team has only had 4 winning seasons in 17 years with one .500 season. They just haven't been good.

True. But 35% vs. 47% overall is still statistically a significant drop. I'm sure it eats at Richardson as it does the rest of us b/c it implies a lack of preparation for Week 1, when you would think there should be no excuse for a lack of preparation (last year notwithstanding).

Other than the playoff losses, losing in Week 1 is about as deflating as a loss can be. I am hopeful the trend will be reversed with Cam/Rivera.

[Gallagher]

Not worried about the Bucs, improvements to their Offensive aside, I think their D is still going to be as porous as swiss cheese.

[Inimicus]

I think trying to draw any kind of meaningful conclusions from data that is as broad as the starting lineups and coaching staffs on opening day over the last 17 years is a fools errand.

Your point about needing the win is none the less valid. We need to come out strong this year if we want to be anything other than also rans. I don't think this team is mentally strong enough to rally into the playoffs if they start a game or two in the hole.

[Carl Spackler]

Becuase the team has only had 4 winning seasons in 17 years with one .500 season. They just haven't been good.

1999: 8-8

2009: 8-8

2 .500 seasons. Not that it's that much better.

[Seltzer]

I think trying to draw any kind of meaningful conclusions from data that is as broad as the starting lineups and coaching staffs on opening day over the last 17 years is a fools errand.

Your point about needing the win is none the less valid. We need to come out strong this year if we want to be anything other than also rans. I don't think this team is mentally strong enough to rally into the playoffs if they start a game or two in the hole.

You are right about not drawing any meaningful conclusion as far as common thread as to what is causing the failure. It's more of a theorectical question and just some numbers to look at.

The only meaningful thing is that overall the Panthers have been bad in Week 1 since the beginning regardless of coaching staff, and it sucks for us fans to have such poor showings to start the season.

I just didn't realize how bad until I actually looked it up. Thought it would be interesting to share

[Argus Plexus]

This adds to what I've been stressing, that the first month of the season is the most important month for the Panthers this year.

Bucs

Taints***

Giants in Primetime

Falcons

Got to come out at least 2-2 if not 3-1 or, God forbid, 4-0.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

To make matters even worse. We have played more games at home opening the season than away. and our average point differential for opening week is -3.24 (n=17, SD=12.01) We have a home opening record of 3-6, and away were 3-5.

Not our best week statistically.

[bigdog10]

It would be interesting to see what our record is in weeks 16 and 17 (when historically, we have played quite a few meaningless games).

[KendrickPanther]

In recent years we have played some teams that matched up well against us. Not really Arizona but Philly and the Giants had great teams. The reality is we have been very mediocre as a franchise.

What I will say is we came ready to play vs. Arizona last year. That is the team that resembles our current team in terms of personnel and coaching. We really played well vs them but we broke down three times on plays of over 40 yards for TDs. Those kind of things happen week 1 with a rookie head coach.

[Leeroy Jenkins PhD]

I am going to run a few stats based on our score differential week by week. Might make a new thread though.