Unintended Consequences Of The Pass-Oriented Nfl?

[mr beauxjangles]

We all know about the transition to the heavily pass-oriented league in recent years. Teams are making adjustments on defense - both in scheme and personnel - to better cover two tight end sets, highly-targeted slot receivers, and a more pass-heavy distribution of plays. Run-stuffing inside linebackers are still valued of course, but there is much more emphasis on a linebacker's coverage skills today. Same for strong safeties.

So my question to you is...if teams continue to invest more heavily in defensive players with attributes that are more heavily skewed towards stopping the pass, is there a point where teams with elite running backs can take advantage of this? That is to say, is there a time where this investment in defensive attributes geared towards stopping the pass make GMs and coaches start looking more closely at emphasizing the run again and figuring out how to take advantage of a defense oriented towards stopping the pass?

Could teams that invest heavily in dynamic running games take advantage of this in the years to come? You know, like teams that have intentionally invested heavily in DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton?

Just a thought. By no means am I suggesting that we go back to a run-heavy offense. It just seems like there may be more method to Hurney's madness (big contract for DWill, signing Tolbert, not trading Stewart, etc.) than what some think. Possibility?

[Cape Fear Cat]

I think that all trends come and go, and that eventually the pendulum will swing back the other way - provided rule changes don't make it impractical or irrelevant to do so. And it only makes sense that if your opponent's strong suit is pass defense, then he is less prepared to stop a solid run game. Any strategy would have to try to capitalize on those weaknesses.

[PhillyB]

yes, and historically that's what has happened. it is self-balancing. trends will always be reversed by the ability of other coaches to take advantage of them.

[CRA]

Rules simply make it favorable to pass. I get what you are saying about personel possibly creating a mismatch a running team could attack......but the rules are geared to make defending the pass difficult. So when you find a weakness to take advantage of with your pass attack....it is almost a double whammy. You get to pick on weak defensive personel and have the rules in your favor.

With player saftey such a focus....the rules aren't going to reverse. Passing game is here to stay and will likely continue in that direction even more so.

[PantherBrew]

Good thread.

I have thought about this many times.

[mr beauxjangles]

So if we acknowledge that defenses will become increasingly focused on stopping the pass (more so than they already are today) and we evaluate coaches and front offices on their ability to develop teams that are capable of attacking their opponents weaknesses, does it change your opinion of the way this front office has heavily invested in its backs and/or does it change your opinion about how we should approach Stewart in free agency next year?

[CRA]

So if we acknowledge that defenses will become increasingly focused on stopping the pass (more so than they already are today) and we evaluate coaches and front offices on their ability to develop teams that are capable of attacking their opponents weaknesses, does it change your opinion of the way this front office has heavily invested in its backs and/or does it change your opinion about how we should approach Stewart in free agency next year?

No matter the focus on defending the pass.....rules set the table for the offense to suceed against them in the air.

I mean, there are only going to be so many Revis' and players who can handle the problems the new breed of TE creates.

With teams focused on defending the pass.... It also let's you run easier with less invested into it.

Overall, building a running team looks to be sledding up hill and not utilizing the rules that are set up to take advantage of

[Frizzy350]

I think you may be right, but many teams don't want to invest so much into an elite running game. Having the best back in the league means very little, so you need to have multiple effective backs. Look at AP, he's still so young yet has already developed so many problems from the amount of touches he receives.

I think that the personnel that defenses put on the field will be exploited, but more by screen passes. This way you have the rules in your favor, and also capitalize on the smaller, faster defensive personnel on the field.

Also, I have no idea how to spell personel.

[Frizzy350]

No matter the focus on defending the pass.....rules set the table for the offense to suceed against them in the air.

I mean, there are only going to be so many Revis' and players who can handle the problems the new breed of TE creates.

With teams focused on defending the pass.... It also let's you run easier with less invested into it.

Overall, building a running team looks to be sledding up hill and not utilizing the rules that are set up to take advantage of

Well, you could always just draft Cam Newton and get the best runner AND passer in one. :P

[TruCatzFan]

I think you're going to see the introduction of the "multi-QB" teams this year in NY with the Jets. Everybody is blasting them in the media, and the big debate is when will The Golden Calf of Bristol start?

The reality is that they will be successful in doing this when it's all said and done, and in a few years this will be way more prevalent throughout the League.

This opinion of mine will not be popular, or even agreed with... But you're about to see this Jets thing work in a BIG way.

[CRA]

Well, you could always just draft Cam Newton and get the best runner AND passer in one. :P

And Cam was easily the most effective runner we had last year. He is the ultimate mismatch.

[CRA]

I think you're going to see the introduction of the "multi-QB" teams this year in NY with the Jets. Everybody is blasting them in the media, and the big debate is when will The Golden Calf of Bristol start?

The reality is that they will be successful in doing this when it's all said and done, and in a few years this will be way more prevalent throughout the League.

This opinion of mine will not be popular, or even agreed with... But you're about to see this Jets thing work in a BIG way.

We will see....but I totally disagree. QB by committee has been tried before on various levels.

When you resort to playing multiple QBs it generally means you don't have one.

Sanchez either excells and crumbles. I don't see a successful duo thing working at all

[jarhead]

On defense I see the challenge of covering TEs, multiple TEs. I think Chud has the right idea.

[Snake]

Defenses will adjust but the NFL will put in more rules to help offenses. They would prob like to see at least 30 points scored by each team. More or less the NFL is going the way of the NBA in trying to allow teams to score more points because no one wants to see a SB with a team winning by 6 points.