Josh Norris Not A Fan Of Luke Kuechly

[panthers55]

that stat says top 10, no top 11. again you bring up guys not drafted in the top 10 in Morgan and Willis. Miller is playing in a 4-3 but his best spot was as a 3-4 OLB, but il still give you that one. you say that stat is misleading but its not, because you added 1 extra spot but yet its still nowhere near the impact of taking the top DL. and 26 guys/ 29 pro bowls> 9 guys/ 8 pro bowls.

Again, I pointed out if you expand it by one position it totally changes the stats and the implication that top 10 LB bust at a higher rate than top 10 defensive players. Because apparently top 11 linebackers are not busts. As other noted, how many of these D linemen went top 5?? How many of these linebackers went top 5?? Von Miller right? and since that is 1 guy and 1 probowl. I guess it means if you draft a guy at number 4 then you have a 100% of drafting a probowler right?? Of course not.......

And again since we didn't distinguish 3-4 Dlinemen from 4-3 Dlinemen why do it for linebackers..... And we are going to say that 26 guys and 29 probowls is statistically significant compared to 9 guys and 8 probowls???? Stat majors help me here. Is that significant at the 95% confidence level. I don't know.....

[mav1234]

a couple did go top 5 - curry at #4 and uhh... hawk? maybe? went top 5 too.

I just think that you are better off looking at the whole of the first round if you want to do it that way, and even that has flaws.

[unicar15]

I dont get this though. So if he goes at the 20's and do what Beast did, wouldn't that be a fail on our part? If the guy can play and you need him, why not draft him assuming all those thats "clearly" BPA is gone

I like Keuchy. But for our organization it doesn't make sense to take him at #9.

Lets just say for the sake of argument he is the BPA at #9. IMO it is no different for our team than if Trent Richardson was sitting there at #9. Would we take him? No...because we are stacked at RB. Two years ago we went into the year with possibly the best or at least top 3-4 LB corps in the NFL. Last year we sufferred injuries but we are still returning all three of those linebackers. I think Beason is going to come back and make a full recovery. He looks great and from everything I've read is on his way back. James Anderson is the most underrated OLB in the league. He was leading the league in tackles for a while last year. Who knows about Thomas Davis...If he's back then he's one of the best in the game at his position.

So let's say TD gets hurt. Would it be nice to have Luke Keuchly sitting on the sideline waiting for PT? Sure...he's a great linebacker. But wouldn't it be better to have Fletcher Cox already making an impact and relying on actual backups (like Jordan Senn) to play a backup role rather than using our top 10 draft pick to take that position?

So IMO...no we wouldn't look stupid if we passed on Keuchly as a BPA because right now we don't need him. This brings me back to Marty Hurney though. Most good organizations can find positions like LB in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round who can make an impact. Do teams have a first round pick on their depth chart at LB? Yeah. But we are talking like we need three out of three of our linebackers to be first round picks for us to have a great linebacking corp and its not the case. James Anderson is a very very good OLB for us. We can find depth at LB later in the draft...you don't have to take Luke Keuchly to shore up the position. It makes no sense to do that.

[mav1234]

how would be drafting a RB not different from a LB? we have two LBs who may never make it back to where they were again, and at least one of those two is someone we KNOW we can't count on to make a full recovery and stay healthy long term - making LB a position of huge need. on the other hand we have two great RBs, just signed another good-quality back, and have an offense that is not 100% reliant on having a huge pool of talent at RB.

Drafting Richardson would be dumb as hell because we literally have no room for him; the same can not be said of a LB.

[Ken]

Here is a link to his database of the 2012 draft class w/ rankings/grades and poo.

https://docs.google....dheXlBb2c&gid=0

Some of these rankings are poo imo.

[DaCityKats]

not ragging on you here DaCityKats, but that comparison is pretty terrible - sample size is very small, most of the LBs listed were outside the top 5 but being compared to a whole slew of DEs being taken in the top 5... but peppers, k. williams, and suggs alone account for 18 of those 29 probowls.

http://www.vincentva...te-defense/html

dunno if this is accurate, but you can see that LBs do not have a crazy high burst rate... but the best LBers have fallen a little bit out of the top 10 in recent years. save for Von Miller, who is a beast...

i understand that, but it was brought up that 2 guys from picks #11 have went to 7 or 8 pro bowls as LBs. and Miller is a beast, but what makes him so good? he showed the ability to get after the QB in college and the NFL and no LB has shwon that ability in this yeasr draft that warrants a top 10 pick. if you want an impact player on the d, your best bet is going with the best DL. in which we could be in position for,unless MoCla falls.

[mav1234]

i understand that, but it was brought up that 2 guys from picks #11 have went to 7 or 8 pro bowls as LBs. and Miller is a beast, but what makes him so good? he showed the ability to get after the QB in college and the NFL and no LB has shwon that ability in this yeasr draft that warrants a top 10 pick. if you want an impact player on the d, your best bet is going with the best DL. in which we could be in position for,unless MoCla falls.

the thing is, it is not like we are choosing between peppers and kuechley (or even peppers and von miller), we are basically choosing between a group of players where we have needs ( DEs, LBs, WRs, DTs and CBs) who are all in the "uhh, these guys have some flaws but probably could be pretty good" category, of which Kuechley is a part of - and depending on who gets drafted when, perhaps he may be the best member left of that group when we pick at #9.

[DaCityKats]

So I gave you a statistic which shows that teams pass frequently on first down and you say how do I know teams aren't in nickel and dime packages on first down. Well, for starters team are still running the ball 53% of the time on first down. Why would a team be in a nickel package when the opponent is more likely to run the ball than pass. Plus it is 1st and 10. Nickel is usually reserved for obvious passing downs. Since teams are more likely to run than pass, by definition it isn't an obvious passing down.

If you read the article you would note that the Pats run more than pass on first down even though people think the opposite, same with the Packers. So again why would you come out in the wrong set when it is easier to play the pass with a regular set than it is to play the run with a nickel or dime package.

it doesnt matter. if a team comes out in a 4 wr set on 1st down, no team will sit in there base aligment. so easy for the QB to check into a pass and pick you apart, you have to respect the different personel and the coaches will see this once the offense runs on the field. thats why teams burn to, when they see something they dont like because they know they are about to get exposed for not having the proper personel on the field. the person i responed to said we will be in a 3-4 in passing situations which makes no sense.

[DaCityKats]

the thing is, it is not like we are choosing between peppers and kuechley (or even peppers and von miller), we are basically choosing between a group of players where we have needs ( DEs, LBs, WRs, DTs and CBs) who are all in the "uhh, these guys have some flaws but probably could be pretty good" category, of which Kuechley is a part of - and depending on who gets drafted when, perhaps he may be the best member left of that group when we pick at #9.

and if the best DT,DE are still on the board i cant see you passing on them for a LB. esp. one that does not get after the QB. he plays a non impact spot in a 4-3 scheme.

[panthers55]

I like Keuchy. But for our organization it doesn't make sense to take him at #9.

Lets just say for the sake of argument he is the BPA at #9. IMO it is no different for our team than if Trent Richardson was sitting there at #9. Would we take him? No...because we are stacked at RB. Two years ago we went into the year with possibly the best or at least top 3-4 LB corps in the NFL. Last year we sufferred injuries but we are still returning all three of those linebackers. I think Beason is going to come back and make a full recovery. He looks great and from everything I've read is on his way back. James Anderson is the most underrated OLB in the league. He was leading the league in tackles for a while last year. Who knows about Thomas Davis...If he's back then he's one of the best in the game at his position.

So let's say TD gets hurt. Would it be nice to have Luke Keuchly sitting on the sideline waiting for PT? Sure...he's a great linebacker. But wouldn't it be better to have Fletcher Cox already making an impact and relying on actual backups (like Jordan Senn) to play a backup role rather than using our top 10 draft pick to take that position?

So IMO...no we wouldn't look stupid if we passed on Keuchly as a BPA because right now we don't need him. This brings me back to Marty Hurney though. Most good organizations can find positions like LB in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round who can make an impact. Do teams have a first round pick on their depth chart at LB? Yeah. But we are talking like we need three out of three of our linebackers to be first round picks for us to have a great linebacking corp and its not the case. James Anderson is a very very good OLB for us. We can find depth at LB later in the draft...you don't have to take Luke Keuchly to shore up the position. It makes no sense to do that.

So why would we not want to draft Kuechly who will start at LB if Davis gets hurt when Cox is likely to sit on the sidelines as well and isn't assured of starting at all. His five sacks in 16 games doesn't hold a candle to Cherry's 2 1/2 sacks in no starts and 4 game appearances or Neblett's 2 sacks in 4 starts. Truth is he might be 3rd on the depth chart. You guys get way too excited about a draft pick who needs time to develop particularly a junior in college.

[panthers55]

and if the best DT,DE are still on the board i cant see you passing on them for a LB. esp. one that does not get after the QB. he plays a non impact spot in a 4-3 scheme.

If Ingram Is there I would agree but Cox, no thanks.

[panthers55]

it doesnt matter. if a team comes out in a 4 wr set on 1st down, no team will sit in there base aligment. so easy for the QB to check into a pass and pick you apart, you have to respect the different personel and the coaches will see this once the offense runs on the field. thats why teams burn to, when they see something they dont like because they know they are about to get exposed for not having the proper personel on the field. the person i responed to said we will be in a 3-4 in passing situations which makes no sense.

So again before you go any further, how many teams come out in 4 receiver sets on first down??? I don't know for sure but I doubt it more than 2 or 3% of the time. So why are we discussing a remote possibility as if that is the norm. If they come out in a 4 receiver set you call a time out and bring in another DB or you draft a LB like Kuechly who can cover a wide receiver and bring in a safety as a free agent who can actually cover a receiver.

Again why discuss the rare exception to negate the reality is that defenses open in a base set on first down most of the time because teams still run on first down most of the time. Nice try going down a bunny trail though............

[kdrh5]

The AJ Hawk/Aaron Curry comparisons are perfectly valid btw.

[panthers55]

Someone mentioned looking at the whole first round. Here you go......

This article looks at drafted players in the first round by position. Once again it shows that LB is one of the safest in the first round and DT is one of the worse.

DEs have a 48% hit rate, Defensive tackles have a 37% hit rate. Linebackers have an astonishing 67% hit rate in the first round.

What is a hit. A guy who is a starter or solid contributor. Who is a bust? A guy who is no longer playing, injury riddled, or buried on the depth chart.

http://www.vincentvalour.com/nfl-draft-history-1st-round-positional-hitbust-rate-defense/html