Why Draft Rumors Are Just Rumors

[Woodie]

Here is a good article by Pat Kirwin at NFL.com about how and why smokescreens work.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80fe0897&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

This is one part I found pretty interesting.

With the draft just days away, teams now covet a certain player or two in the first round -- and they must protect their interests in any way they can. Scouts and assistant coaches are often removed from the process so as not to leak the intentions of the club. The real draft board is headed for lock and key, and only the GM and head coach will share its contents with the owner. Then again, sometimes club employees leak false information to send other teams down the wrong path. All is far in love and war. Smart teams know how to posture and create a good smoke screen. It starts with the top team on the board, and this year that's the Detroit Lions.

This is something the Panthers use a lot. Quite often, they do not show any interest in a player they are really targeting. For example, on Fox Got Game this weekend, Jordan Gross said that during his draft the Panthers did not show him much interest at all, so he had no idea that they were looking at him. Another example is Beason said the only contact he had with the Panthers prior to being drafted was that they gave him a personality test during the combine, then didn't hear from them again until the call that they were drafting him.

1. Don't visit the guy you really want, visit a few players you have little interest in and send people speculating about your plans.

[Squirrel]

Post a link thanks.

[Squirrel]

Fixed it for you .

[Woodie]

Fixed it for you .

Thanks, it was there before I submitted the post, don't know what happened :confused:.

[Squirrel]

You put the url around it. You dont need to do that just copy and paste.

[rayzor]

i still can't believe that there are so many who think that this type of thing doesn't go on or see the sense in it.

[Raskle]

There are many folks who have never read Sun-Tzu as well... *shrug*

[rayzor]

There are many folks who have never read Sun-Tzu as well... *shrug*

required reading for a couple business classes i took. great read.

[crunkpanther]

You really can't believe anything right now.

I'm not even sure why these rumors get reported. If I were a sportswriter and someone connected with a team told me something, my first thought would be they were trying to put out misinformation.

Actually, for that matter, teams might well double-bluff: Say they really like a player who they actually do really like, under the theory that no one would really believe they like a player if they say they do.

[bleys]

but! but! but! Peppers! and Hurney! And Carey! WTF?! Why aren't they dooooin' anything?!

lol, I remember the last thread on this topic and I have to agree with Rayzor... WTF?!

And to Raskle, I'm a big fan of Machiavelli's version... (FWIW)

Actually, for that matter, teams might well double-bluff: Say they really like a player who they actually do really like, under the theory that no one would really believe they like a player if they say they do.

Good point, and it's easy to start running in circles with this stuff. (Even though we all know it doesn't exist /sarcasm)

[Jangler]

Lying and deception is not a sign of good character.

[Brooklyn Bully]

i still can't believe that there are so many who think that this type of thing doesn't go on or see the sense in it.

I see why it's done, I just think it's pretty stupid for the most part. For example, if you have 15 teams that go before you in a draft, count on those 15 being able to draft the player you want. Period. It doesn't matter if you've been hiding your love for someone else. You can blow smoke up the asses of every team in the NFL, but the fact is that if you have teams before you in a draft, and you want someone really bad, you'll need to trade up to get him.

I'll admit, the well played smoke screen can be used to force another team to trade up to get the man they covet...but if you're not part of the trade, it doesn't work in your favor at all. All it does is hurt another team and also give the team they traded with something extra.

And faking teams out behind you as to who you are supposed to be interested in is just as retarded, as again...you go before them and have the right to do what ever you want.

But like I said, I DO GET IT. A well played smoke screen can get a team to TRADE WITH YOU to take YOUR spot to get the player they think you want...that they also want. But other than those childish mindgames, it's just a bunch of drama if you ask me.

Have your list if guys you want. When it's your turn, draft. If you feel that strongly about someone and you just HAVE to have him...sell yourself. Hell, we did it to get Otah.

[Urrymonster]

Uptown that is not that case at all.

Teams will covet a player that is in the their targeting draft spot, possibly a lil above or a lil below. They will not go nuts over a player that is going number one, when they have no trade ammunition AND picking in the second half of the round. There is very little difference in ability through most first rounds, so saying that the player that is coveted is a sure fire top 5 pick is not always the case. Example of this is Beason, I believe the only other player we were interested was Anderson or Adams? If they did not fall we knew he was our guy.

Secondly there is more than one way to design a smokescreen. First off. If a team think it knows the player you desperately want, it will never ever, ever try and trade with you. That is ilogical, it will make them trade with the guys IN FRONT of you. The smokescreen is nec. to prevent teams jumping in front to get the guy you actually want. So that is the first type. The misdirection to prevent teams jumping in front of you to get the same guy.

The second type you mention yourself, but that is a much much much harder task to achieve. Simply because the teams need to have identical needs, you need no players on your board at that point, or have various still on there. It is not a particularly reliable method and thus the main reason smokescreens are set up, are for the first situation. It rarely results in making teams trade with you.

[Fireball77]

I love Kirwan. Thanks for posting this, Woodie.

I love tidbits like this!

Also in the '95 draft, we took tight end Kyle Brady in the first round. A team drafting right below us swore they weren't interested in him with their pick, but a young kid in the Penn State equipment room let our people know that this same club had called the day before the draft for his shoe size, helmet size and shoulder-pad preference. We felt like that information was solid and so we didn't move down in hopes of getting Brady lower in the draft, even though there were offers to do so.

There are a few great stories over at the National Football Post by agents who talk about what it's like from their perspective.