Panthers surprise Cuts and Restructures?

[panthers55]

also, can we quit with those nonsense that Williams has never been good between the tackles. 2008 he beasted between the tackles and everything inbetween. When he peaked he could do it all.

That argument suggests he does it by himself. THe line in 2008 and 2009 was much better than the line was this year. Running between the tackles requires that the linemen reach the second level and take out the middle linebacker. Secondly we had Hoover in 2008 as our lead blocker who could open holes in the middle. This year we often didn't even employ a fullback which isn't going to get the job done up the middle. You can't compare a runningback's production 4 years apart and make statements about their production unless you account for variables which are very important. In 2008 and 2009 we ran a I back power running game with a lead fullback. This year we ran a pistol formation with often 1 back in the backfield and guys like Olsen and Shockey playing the fullback spot at times. Totally different schemes which are not comparable at all. So if you are comparing 2008 and 2011 and expect to find any usable comparisons you can stop the wasted effort. What Fox ran here and what Chud runs are night and day different. Any data derived from those comparisons is faulty from the beginning. No need to go any further.

[panthers55]

To me it never has been whether Deangelo Williams will have tread left in 3 years. It's been what front office in their right mind would have a cap figure of 16-20 mil being used up on 2 RB splitting time on the field?

I really wish there was a legit source that stated Williams cap hit before escalators each season for the remainder of his contract. He is getting something like 8.7 mil next year. Stewart will get a bigger contract after next year if he is to .stay. 17-20 mil on 2 RB per year?

Williams salary in 2012 is 5.7 million, his salary in 2013 is 4.75 million, in 2014 it is 5.75 and in 2015 it is 6,75 million. Spreading out the guaranteed money his cap hit in 2012 is 8.2 million. He likely won't see the money after 2013 or 2014 at the latest unless he hangs in there longer than I think he will.

Stewart's cap figure for 2012 is 2.6 million as he is still on his rookie contract.

So the total for both of them is 10.8 million. When Stewart's goes up in 2013, Williams will be declining. The 15 million figure includes Newton who counts 5 million toward the cap as well.

My point is that a running game that includes both running backs and our quarterback for only about 16 million is a pretty good deal when they account for a large majority of our offense and cost less than Brees is projected to cost by himself.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/yearly/

[CRA]

Williams salary in 2012 is 5.7 million, his salary in 2013 is 4.75 million, in 2014 it is 5.75 and in 2015 it is 6,75 million. Spreading out the guaranteed money his cap hit in 2012 is 8.2 million. He likely won't see the money after 2013 or 2014 at the latest unless he hangs in there longer than I think he will.

Stewart's cap figure for 2012 is 2.6 million as he is still on his rookie contract.

So the total for both of them is 10.8 million. When Stewart's goes up in 2013, Williams will be declining. The 15 million figure includes Newton who counts 5 million toward the cap as well.

My point is that a running game that includes both running backs and our quarterback for only about 16 million is a pretty good deal when they account for a large majority of our offense and cost less than Brees is projected to cost by himself.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/yearly/

my issue isn't so much the cost in 2012......it is the cost of the running game in 2013. Cost will be much greater in 2013 than 2012.

ultimately, I have no issue w/ Williams this upcoming year. After that is where my compliants begin.

Project 2013 assuming Stewart gets a slightly better deal than the one Williams just got.

[panthers55]

my issue isn't so much the cost in 2012......it is the cost of the running game in 2013. Cost will be much greater in 2013 than 2012.

ultimately, I have no issue w/ Williams this upcoming year. After that is where my compliants begin.

Project 2013 assuming Stewart gets a slightly better deal than the one Williams just got.

THe cost is about how you structure it. Williams contract is more front loaded to take into account the fact we will pay Stewart. Most all of the guaranteed money comes out in the first 2 years which is prior to 2013. I suspect Stewart's contract will be backloaded with a big roster bonus in 2014 for example when the cap is supposed to rise by 15 million I have read. The rest will be backloaded when we probably won't even have Williams on the team. William's signing bonus was 16 million over 5 years or 3 million a year. The other 5 million was just guaranteeing his second year salary which we were going to pay anyway. The 43 million is a big number but he likely won't collect on all of that. So really it is not as bad as folks like you make it out to be. It is like Haynesworth's reportedly 100 million dollar contract where he didn't earn half of that.

[CRA]

THe cost is about how you structure it. Williams contract is more front loaded to take into account the fact we will pay Stewart. Most all of the guaranteed money comes out in the first 2 years which is prior to 2013. I suspect Stewart's contract will be backloaded with a big roster bonus in 2014 for example when the cap is supposed to rise by 15 million I have read. The rest will be backloaded when we probably won't even have Williams on the team. William's signing bonus was 16 million over 5 years or 3 million a year. The other 5 million was just guaranteeing his second year salary which we were going to pay anyway. The 43 million is a big number but he likely won't collect on all of that. So really it is not as bad as folks like you make it out to be. It is like Haynesworth's reportedly 100 million dollar contract where he didn't earn half of that.

Do you have a breakdown showing Williams' contract is actually front loaded?

If so that would quiet me some on this issue.

From what I see, what they will likely pay in 2013 and 2014 (if Williams is on this roster and Stew gets his) will be too much for a running game when Cam is carrying a load of it. Those are the 2 years that worry me.

Don't forget that 2013-2014 window is where dealing w/ Cam's contract easily could come into play as well. Do you think they will let him go until his current deal runs out? Stewart will definately get a huge chunk of cash one of those years. A lot cash could come into play if that trio is on this roster in 2013-2014.

So if you project Stewart's money in 2013-2014

Williams in 2013-2014

Cam's new deal in 2013-2014. Ideally I would think they would want that resolved before his tiny/short 4 yr deal runs it's course. That has largely been ignored in this talk. Cam's deal has potential to be FREAKING HUGE. 2014 could be a lot different when you aren't penciling in his rookie deal.

That doesn't worry you about how we are spending on the ground? In passing league we will have a lot of needs elsewhere on this roster. I think until Cam is at least 25 he will be a staple of our running attack.

[carpanfan96]

Williams salary in 2012 is 5.25 million, his salary in 2013 is 4.75 million, in 2014 it is 5.75 and in 2015 it is 6,75 million. His salary in 2011 was 4.5 million.

Cap hit each year is 3.2 million with his cap hit of 8.45 this season being fully guaranteed.

His cap hits each year look like this starting in 2011

2011 - 7.7, 2012 - 8.45, 2013 - 7.95, 2014 - 8.95, 2015 - 9.95.

4.5 + 5.25 = 9.75, 6.4 in bonus hit over 2 years or 16.15 in the first two years.

4.75 + 5.75 + 6.75 = 17.25, Bonus hit of 9.6 over the 3 years or 26.85 total.

I actually think he will be here for the full length of the contract.

However the panthers can pull it off, paying both Stewart and Williams. Just give Stewart a large signing bonus that includes an option bonus payable starting in 2014.

If you wanted to project deals for all three of them. Being Stewart, Williams and Newton I'd say something along these lines.

Newton - 2013-2014 cap hit - 14 million

Williams - 2013-2014 cap hit - 9 million

Stewart - 2013-2014 cap hit - 6 million or so.

A total of 29 million or so of an expected salary cap in the 155-160 range, give or take (That's if cam is on a new deal.)

[Wyank]

If Cam is on a new deal in 2013-2014 and becomes what we hope does before that deal is struck, 14 million is a low ball figure. If he succeeds like we want him to, Brees will be looking at Cam's number and wishing he had Cammy Cam money. Of course we have high expectations of Cam although he he has higher expectations for himself.

[CRA]

If Cam is on a new deal in 2013-2014 and becomes what we hope does before that deal is struck, 14 million is a low ball figure. If he succeeds like we want him to, Brees will be looking at Cam's number and wishing he had Cammy Cam money. Of course we have high expectations of Cam although he he has higher expectations for himself.

If Cam gets a new deal before it expires and Stew gets his new deal.....2014 for those 2 will likely be HUGE numbers for the run game.

[CRA]

If you wanted to project deals for all three of them. Being Stewart, Williams and Newton I'd say something along these lines.

Newton - 2013-2014 cap hit - 14 million

Williams - 2013-2014 cap hit - 9 million

Stewart - 2013-2014 cap hit - 6 million or so.

A total of 29 million or so of an expected salary cap in the 155-160 range, give or take (That's if cam is on a new deal.)

In 2013 and 2014, Stewart is going to be making more than Williams. He will be younger, better, and fit the scheme better at the time to sign his new deal vs. when Williams signed his.

I'd argue you need to project with bigger numbers for Stewart. Not sure how you can realistically think Stewart will be cheaper then.

Cam is an unknown. His next deal likely will make those old huge #1 draft deals look like chump change if he plays well leading up to it. His deal likely could turn stomachs with how absurd it could get.

I'd say you are low balling your estimate if Cam and Stew are on new deals.

[carpanfan96]

In 2013 and 2014, Stewart is going to be making more than Williams. He will be younger, better, and fit the scheme better at the time to sign his new deal vs. when Williams signed his.

I'd argue you need to project with bigger numbers for Stewart. Not sure how you can realistically think Stewart will be cheaper then.

Cam is an unknown. His next deal likely will make those old huge #1 draft deals look like chump change if he plays well leading up to it. His deal likely could turn stomachs with how absurd it could get.

I'd say you are low balling your estimate if Cam and Stew are on new deals.

If they both had new deals, they would be in the first years of a new deal. Which is generally the lower paying year of the contract. Stewart would be making less then Williams because of that fact alone. It would probably look something like this, 5 year 55 million deal with 34 guaranteed.

Newton's deal would probably be in the 7 year 100+ million range, but would also be in the first year of a new deal. That deal would also include a stupid amount of guaranteed money, like half of it. If you base those numbers on the highest paid RB's/QB's in the first year of the deal, those numbers would be close.

It's all about how you move the money around, with the time period they are signing in. (year before the ESPN deal kicks in) Those contracts would take advantage of that and be back loaded and most likely feature some sort of option bonus that kicks in after the deal does.

[CRA]

If they both had new deals, they would be in the first years of a new deal. Which is generally the lower paying year of the contract. Stewart would be making less then Williams because of that fact alone. It would probably look something like this, 5 year 55 million deal with 34 guaranteed.

Newton's deal would probably be in the 7 year 100+ million range, but would also be in the first year of a new deal. That deal would also include a stupid amount of guaranteed money, like half of it. If you base those numbers on the highest paid RB's/QB's in the first year of the deal, those numbers would be close.

It's all about how you move the money around, with the time period they are signing in. (year before the ESPN deal kicks in) Those contracts would take advantage of that and be back loaded and most likely feature some sort of option bonus that kicks in after the deal does.

okay, that does sound about right

but you are still paying 9 million to a 30 yr old RB in 2013.....despite Cam and Stewart holding down the ground game.

I just see Carolina dumping him after 2012. If Stewart is healthy and they are ready to win......that is better invested elsewhere.

[panthers55]

If they both had new deals, they would be in the first years of a new deal. Which is generally the lower paying year of the contract. Stewart would be making less then Williams because of that fact alone. It would probably look something like this, 5 year 55 million deal with 34 guaranteed.

Newton's deal would probably be in the 7 year 100+ million range, but would also be in the first year of a new deal. That deal would also include a stupid amount of guaranteed money, like half of it. If you base those numbers on the highest paid RB's/QB's in the first year of the deal, those numbers would be close.

It's all about how you move the money around, with the time period they are signing in. (year before the ESPN deal kicks in) Those contracts would take advantage of that and be back loaded and most likely feature some sort of option bonus that kicks in after the deal does.

That sounds about right. As you have indicated, the deals may look huge but you can structure them so they can fit under the cap as long as you don't escalate everyone of them so that in their last year or two they are making huge money. Unless of course you were never intending to actually pay it. As you know we only have to pay the guaranteed money and whatever salary we have already paid up to that point. With the new TV contract coming in at the end of 2013, the cap will go up significantly. As long as we make it through 2013, we should be okay.

[ed bell]

okay, that does sound about right

but you are still paying 9 million to a 30 yr old RB in 2013.....despite Cam and Stewart holding down the ground game.

I just see Carolina dumping him after 2012. If Stewart is healthy and they are ready to win......that is better invested elsewhere.

Look, I'm not trying to single you out over this because plenty of people think DeAngelo's contract was inflated, but saying that you see Carolina dumping him after 2012 seems to be based on your opinion of this entire situation. Obviously it's what you would do if you were in charge. If the ownership only valued him at a level that would result in their desire to move on after only two years by cutting DeAngelo then the original offer would have been much more modest and they would have taken the chance that he signs elsewhere IMO. Maybe he gets restructured to ease him into an eventual departure, but I just can't see them simply cutting him loose.

[CRA]

Look, I'm not trying to single you out over this because plenty of people think DeAngelo's contract was inflated, but saying that you see Carolina dumping him after 2012 seems to be based on your opinion of this entire situation. Obviously it's what you would do if you were in charge. If the ownership only valued him at a level that would result in their desire to move on after only two years by cutting DeAngelo then the original offer would have been much more modest and they would have taken the chance that he signs elsewhere IMO. Maybe he gets restructured to ease him into an eventual departure, but I just can't see them simply cutting him loose.

Well, that could be true...

I just have trouble invisioning Hurney's plan after the 2012 season is done.

I also generally speaking don't like 30 yr old RBs. Regardless of what they have done other options generally fit better. Outside of the Ravens adding Ricky most bring them in bc they need vet leadership on that side ( Jets and KC come to mind with LT and Jones)

I really have nothing against Williams, he has been one of my favorites recently.