Consider "Bustability" of position

[MHS831]

http://www.vincentvalour.com/nfl-draft-history-1st-round-positional-boombust-rate-offense/html

http://www.vincentvalour.com/nfl-draft-history-1st-round-positional-hitbust-rate-defense/html

This site is pretty consistent with other sources I stumbled across over the years. There seems to be strong reason to suggest not drafting a DT, WR, or DE. This is consistent with Marty's philosphy, which is to draft safe.

After Hurney's free styling in 2010, when he ignored lame duck Fox and nearly traded away what would become Cam Newton to St. Louis to trade up to the #33 pick and take Jimmy Clausen, expect RR to have more input. MH will draft safely, like he always does. His career rides on Cam's shoulders, so the draft may not be as defensive as you all think.

Here are the reasons:

Defensive Tackle: 37% first round success rate. Think of all the DTs you never hear from again. We drafted 2 DTs last year.

Defensive Ends 48% success rate in the NFL. Now, take into account that Coples is the best 4-3 DE and the only DE worth the #8/9 pick. Question marks on him. Smart money says pass. I do not see it, because DE is a need, just not a priority--arguably.

So lets grab a top WR!! Hold up. WR success rate? 36%--wow. I think we are fine at WR anyway.

What needs remain?

LB--Rivera was one, loves them, and their success rate is 69%. Problem is, No OLB will be taken in the top 10. Luke Keuchly can play all 3 spots, but is listed as a MLB. Maybe.

CB--I was surprised that first round CBs success rate is also 69%. Dre Kirkpatrick starting to look good from this perspective.

OT--Offensive Tackles succeed at a rate of 64%. Riley Reiff is starting to look good, as is Jonathan Martin.,

So what will Marty do? We should already know by now. History tells us.

Marty's career is on Cam's shoulders. With Otah'a knees, if he plays it will be at RG, not RT. Gross will be 33 or so. Our depth? LT- Wharton (will probably be cut-salary) and Garry Williams. Right Tackle? Byron Bell and Lee Ziemba. You can bet that Marty will draft a LOT if one is available. We have 3 positional tackles (4 if you include Schwartz) that were drafted in the seventh round or lower--undrafted.

If the top LOTs are gone, I would not be surprised to see the Panthers trade down. If they can drop 6-10 spaces, the following players make good sense (when they did not at #8/9): Z. Brown, OLB; D. DeCastro, G; Luke Keuchley, LB.

THe second two-Not crazy.

DeCastro is perhaps the best OL in the draft. If we had a guard, we could open huge holes trapping and we could prevent middle bull rushes. Wharton and Hangman were eaten alive this year.

Luke can play all 3 LB positions. THe best LB available.

[Gin and Juice]

Luke is probably the best defensive player in this draft! If RR has no doubt that he can play WLB then we are a fool not to take him, barring Blackmon doesn't slip! Luke is an absolute beast LB and all out baller!