Winning/Losing Out

[rayzor]

I wanna get everyones take on this. Would you guys rather win the next 2 games, go 7-9, and have momentum for next year or would you rather lose out, get a high draft pick, and make our team better? Personally, I would rather lose the next 2 games and secure a high draft pick and take a CB and then dominate next year.

it won't happen. teams don't make themselves better by losing out and getting higher draft positions. it just doesn't happen and i really wish that people would stop saying that.

But do teams that win meaningless December games hurt their franchise? Do they cut off their nose to spite their face? I looked at a decade’s worth of teams that had losing records after 10 games, and then measured how much their draft position changed from what it would have been after 10 games to where it ended up based on their late performance. I used 1998 to 2007, so that I could then measure the three years afterward, to see how our teams did in the future, depending on whether they cost themselves draft position or gained it by losing late.

There were 135 teams with losing records at the ten-game mark from 1998 to 2007. None made the playoffs, and the range of outcomes ranged from winning all 6 games (Miami in 2005) to winning no more and improving draft position.

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The best franchises at “improving” their draft position by losing rather than winning meaningless games during this period: Cleveland, Detroit, Arizona, and Oakland.

The "dumb" franchises that kept winning despite being virtually eliminated (each of these cost themselves at least 10 draft slots during this period): Carolina, Jacksonville, New York Jets, Tennessee and Green Bay.

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Teams that cost themselves draft position by winning meaningless games performed substantially better across the board over the next three seasons. They won more games, made the playoffs a much higher percentage of the time, and advanced to conference championship games a much higher percentage of the time in the future.

The difference between the biggest losers of draft position and biggest gainers in draft position is quite stark. The draft position sliders won 16.3% more of their games. They made the playoffs twice as often. They advanced deep in the playoffs 5x more frequently.

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People overvalue draft picks, and the importance of one pick in a team’s success. There is probably also an element where teams that win late are correlated with teams that are run better, and draft better given their circumstances. Dallas “cost” themselves 6 draft spots in 2004 by going 3-3 down the stretch after a 3-7 start. They had to settle for DeMarcus Ware as a result. Pittsburgh ”cost” themselves 5 slots in 2003 by going 3-3 down the stretch after a 3-7 start. They settled for Ben Roethlisberger as a result.

Good franchises try to win. Period. They don’t settle for having slim chances, and packing it up.

more with stats and stuff

[GotSwag?]

As much as Id like to have another top 5 pick, I want to win out. This team needs to learn how to finish off teams and winning the final 4 games will give us the confidence next season to do BIG things.

[Keith Moons Liver]

win all the way

as poorly as we draft, a few spots higher isn't going to make much difference

[soysauce2580]

The Browns lose every year, do all of those draft picks help them?

Winning breeds winning.

Ok, thanks for the info guys. You could also look at the lions who lost a poo ton every year, high draft picks and bam, there automatically contenders in there division. After looking at where we would fall if we won out, i would take it. We need to make some big splashes during free agency and the draft.

[Miguel O'Hara]

Win. Always win.

"You play to win the game."

[cgarsmoker]

Win....win... Win. Losing sucks.

[Argus Plexus]

[smitty_89]

I call dibs to make this shitty thread next week...

[BBQ&Beer]

win all the way

as poorly as we draft, a few spots higher isn't going to make much difference

Iirc, its only when we trade up that we've crapped out.

[CatMan72]

Winning, no question.

[Chaos]

Not only do I want them to win these next two games like I do every game, I want the Saints to have something to play for week 17 and I want to beat their asses in their house and end the season on that note.

Forget draft picks, how could ANYONE accept losing to the Bucs or Saints, regardless the scenario?? Good lord.

[frash.exe]

some of you guys are way too obsessed with draft positioning

we're still probably going to end up top 15 even if we win out and we'll find a player that will improve a need significantly.

[Moose87Banks]

Why cheer for your team to lose. If we can win games then obviously our team doesn't need to improve much. If we lose out then so be it we deserved to lose, and we get a high draft pick because we weren't that good.

[chef17]

I wanted us to lose out last year so we could take andrew luck.

we ended up with cam.

I mean i guess it KIND of worked out...

IMO the whole point of being a fan is to support the team every game every season. When you want to lose, you aren't doing that. I know people feel differently and that's fine, just my take on it.