Cam vs Tim

[Showtime]

he's just completely misunderstanding the stat all the way around

I'm misunderstanding the stat? Please don't make me laugh. You just wrongly defined it 3 times in this thread alone trying to look like you actually know what you're talking about.

[mav1234]

ahh I guess you don't understand the concept of a regression. Basically this year I plotted YPP of every team versus the number of wins. I also plotted points per game, other stats too. What was very obvious was that points per game was better at predicting number of wins than YPP.

YPP does not come closest to predicting win/loss record, that's the entire point. PPG comes closer, point differential comes closest.

The reason PPG comes closer is that it isn't clouded by yards. The reason point differential comes closest is really, really simple: it includes defense.

[Porn Shop Clerk]

I'm misunderstanding the stat? Please don't make me laugh. You just wrongly defined it 3 times in this thread alone trying to look like you actually know what you're talking about.

i haven't defined it at all. its pretty self explanatory.

[mav1234]

hey Teeray, for your enjoyment I just plotted net points per drive from Drive Stats and the R² was .66. Net drive success rate was .48. Not that it matters much; imo season long stats are problematic for a variety of reasons, better to use more recent stuff.

[Porn Shop Clerk]

First of all the point is you said it didn't measure it this year and I showed you it did, yet you skip right over it.

But the whole point is yards per point comes closest to it and it's better at it than your eyes or biased observation or the stats most people throw around all day long to argue football.

It's not a subjective stat. It tells the truth and it's not biased. You see what you wanna see, while yards per point shows what actually really happened. It doesn't side with anybody.

It's just a number.

see your whole analysis is fundamentally flawed because NFL offenses don't operate in a vacuum

you know what else operates in a vacuum? your social life.

[teeray]

Please you would have lost your ass off betting against me considering everything you have posted is so off the mark with what actually happens every week. Not to mention you've already admitted you lost money. You should learn stats before betting any more on football games or better yet, just don't bet at all. Just enjoy the game.

People don't bet against other people. They bet against a spread, moneyline, etc.

Not sure when I have said I lost money. The last 4 seasons I have ended the season being up. This hasn't been my best year and was down early but I am up now and barring 3 really bad weeks will be up again at the conclusion of this season.

Difference between me and you is you claim you have like 4 jobs. So you use stats for internet arguments. I use the information to try and pay my bills. I have more on the line than you do.

[Showtime]

ahh I guess you don't understand the concept of a regression. Basically this year I plotted YPP of every team versus the number of wins. I also plotted points per game, other stats too. What was very obvious was that points per game was better at predicting number of wins than YPP.

YPP does not come closest to predicting win/loss record, that's the entire point. PPG comes closer, point differential comes closest.

The reason PPG comes closer is that it isn't clouded by yards. The reason point differential comes closest is really, really simple: it includes defense.

lol. Are you really trying to argue now that a stat that leaves yards out is better than one that takes it into consideration after all the complaining you were making when you were wrongly assuming yards were not taken into consideration by offensive efficiency and that's why it wasn't a good measurement? Like the wind mav. Whichever way it blows every week huh? Yards per point clears up points per game, it doesn't cloud the stat.

But as usual....facts, data, numbers and evidence beats your observation. Maybe you should look again.

yards per point & winning records

W(13-0)1 Green Bay 11.3

W(8-5)2 NY Jets 12.4

W(10-3) San Francisco 13.1

W(8-5)4 Detroit 13.3

W(7-6)5 Chicago 13.8

W(10-3)6 New England 13.9

W(10-3)7 New Orleans 14.0

W(10-3)8 Baltimore 14.1

W(7-6)9 Cincinnati 14.7

W(10-3)10 Houston 14.9

W(8-5)11 Denver 15.3

L(5-8)12 Buffalo 15.5

L(6-7)13 San Diego 15.6

W(7-6)14 NY Giants 15.6

L(4-9)15 Miami 15.8

W(7-6)16 Tennessee 15.8

W(8-5)17 Atlanta 15.9

L(2-8)18 Minnesota 16.0

W(7-6)19 Dallas 16.0

L(6-7)20 Arizona 16.3

W(7-6)21 Oakland 16.4

L(4-9)22 Carolina 16.6

L(5-7)23 Seattle 16.6

W(10-3)24 Pittsburgh 17.1 16.1

L(5-8)25 Philadelphia 17.5

(L4-9)26 Jacksonville 17.5

L(4-9)27 Tampa Bay 18.6

L(4-9)28 Washington 18.8

L(0-13)29 Indianapolis 20.0

L(4-9)30 Cleveland 21.3

L(5-8)31 Kansas City 22.1

L(2-10)32 St Louis 24.3

Number of losing teams in the top half of the league: 3

Number of losing teams in the top 10: 0.

Number of losing teams in the bottom half of the league: 4

points per gae & winning records

W(13-0)1 Green Bay 35.8

W(10-3)2 New Orleans 31.9

W(10-3)3 New England 30.5

W(8-5)4 Detroit 28.2

W(10-3)5 Houston 25.4

W(8-5)6 NY Jets 25.2

W(7-6)7 NY Giants 24.9

L(6-7)8 San Diego 24.9

W(10-3)9 Baltimore 24.6

W(7-6)10 Dallas 24.4

L(4-9)11 Carolina 24.1

W(10-3)12 San Francisco 23.6

W(7-6)13 Chicago 23.2

W(5-8)14 Atlanta 23.1

L(5-8)15 Philadelphia 22.8

W(7-6)16 Oakland 22.3

L(5-8)17 Buffalo 22.2

W(7-6)18 Cincinnati 21.9

L(10-3)19 Pittsburgh 21.7

L(2-11)20 Minnesota 21.1

W(8-5)21 Denver 20.7

W(7-6)22 Tennessee 20.5

L(4-9)23 Miami 19.7

L(6-7)24 Arizona 19.5

L(5-7)25 Seattle 18.0

L(4-9)26 Tampa Bay 17.8

L(4-9)27 Washington 17.6

L(4-9)28 Jacksonville 14.8

L(-13)29 Indianapolis 14.2

L(4-9)30 Cleveland 13.7

L(5-8)31 Kansas City 13.3

L(2-10)32 St Louis 11.7

Number of losing teams in the top half of the league: 3

Number of losing teams in the top 10: 1

Number of losing teams in the bottom half of the league: 3

So no losing teams in the top 10 on ypp rankings. But on points per game ranking, San Diego, whose offense is playing like poo and is 6-7 is considered the 8th best offense.

Another simple example of why PPG is inaccurate: Us! Carolina Panthers. According to points per game we're better ranked than Atlanta, who beat us twice and a bunch of other teams we lost to and their offenses have outperformed ours. So yeah, according to PPG, our offense is better than Atlanta's, yet both times we played them we scored a whopping 7 points in the second half combined. 0 points this past Sunday. :rolleyes:

A simple example of how yards per point tells the true story. According to yards per point we cannot beat a team that's got a more efficient offense than ours.

-Number of teams we have beat this year that are better ranked in offensive efficiency than us? 0

-Number of teams we beat that are worse than us in offensive efficiency? 4

I'd say that's pretty damn true. PPG is not even fuging close when it comes to the Panthers. Neither are yards. This is actually our problem. Efficiency. So naturally, PPG would be a very inaccurate measurement of our team since it leaves out efficiency.

PS: The number of outliers will change depending on whether it is an even or odd week of number of games played(you have one or two additional outliers when 15 games have been played. It becomes more accurate on even numbers: 16 games. Usually only one outlier: Pittsburg. So for example, next Sunday, it will rank teams even more accurately. It alternates every week)

[mav1234]

Might want to check who won and lost games this week, buddy. ;)

Not to mention you are basing your argument on a single week, in a week where the difference I can virtually guarantee is statistically insignificant.

Across the entire season, what we see this year is that PPG correlates slightly better with wins than YPP, but that point differential is what correlates best. This is precisely because point differential includes defense, whereas the other two do not.

[teeray]

And while we are on the subject of betting the NFL, this day and age to successfully be able to bet on sports is more complex than just stats analysis. It is about information gathering, understanding where the public is betting, waiting on a better spread or taking a spread early if it is where you want it, getting proper odds, and manipulating the vig or eliminating it altogether.

Simple stat analysis won't cut it if you want to be successful. You have to be on it constantly throughout the week.

[TheRealDeal]

Parlay that mutherfuger

[teeray]

Team with good OYPP are generally going to have better records because it is reflective of the entire team not just one facet.

[teeray]

Parlay that mutherfuger

When the time calls for it, go ahead. I don't do it often unless I feel very strongly about three games and I don't parlay more than three games although sometimes I will do two different 3 team parlays as a hedge.

Although just out of curiosity I looked to see what the payout would be for all 12 games that I bet last week and the payout would have been @ $400,000 on a $100 bet if I won all 12 :eek:

[TheRealDeal]

There was this guy at my wife's work who was trying to impress her saying poo like he put down 12g on this game and he lives in a 3million dollar house on the beach and blah blah blah like he's some sports betting genius so I asked him what ypp was and he didn't know so I knew he was lying.

[mav1234]

Team with good OYPP are generally going to have better records because it is reflective of the entire team not just one facet.

it is also representative of scoring a lot of points.

but scoring points isn't all it takes to win games; that's why neither YPP nor PPG are as good as, say, point differential or even net points in terms of predictive power across the entire year.

however with such ridiculously low correlation coefficients on YPP, PPG I would not use them as my only determinant of who would win a game.

There was this guy at my wife's work who was trying to impress her saying poo like he put down 12g on this game and he lives in a 3million dollar house on the beach and blah blah blah like he's some sports betting genius so I asked him what ypp was and he didn't know so I knew he was lying.

he doesn't know poo about sports, tell him that we can hook him up though, this forum can sort it all out