Dispelling the new myth about our offense and defense

[jamieboy]

They are 5th in the league in recovering fumbles. We are 28th in the league in creating turnovers. I know that you don't think that pass rush, breaking on the ball, disguising coverages, tipped balls at the line of scrimmage, etc. have anything to do with interceptions. Thus proving how far you are reaching.

But the fact is our defense in 28th in creating turnovers.

Our offense on the other hand is 12th in the league in turnovers with only 12. Better than 70% of the league. Pretty darn good.

And this is what shows you have 0 football logic and you have already been proven wrong 50 times in this thread with this one because while it certainly does have something to do with it, that's not how the NFL sees it.

According to NFL definitions:

Takeaway: When a defense forces a fumble and recovers the fumbled ball, recovers a fumbled ball by the offense or registers an interception.

Turnover: A turnover occurs when the team with the ball loses possession of the ball, which is then gained by the other team.

Giveaway: A giveaway is when a player's own actions result in a loss of the ball and the other team recovers it.

Notice their terminology: registers. recovers. forces.

Only one of these implies this implies primarily a defense responsibility.

You ever see the NFL track stats that tracks a player's pass rushes and interception ratio? NO.

You ever see the NFL track batted balls and interception ratios? NO.

They DO whoever track forced fumbles and recoveries for defensive players. Go look on NFL.com. These are the only two they give a poo about, because they understand it's the only two in which a defense can have a direct effect. And we are great at this.

They way they see it, and it is how the game itself works, is a pass rush resulting in an interception is the quarterback's fault, not the defense's success.

And most of these result in incompletions. A GOOD quarterback will throw the ball away. Not in double coverage off his back foot. Makes sense doesn't it?

A defense can force a bad throw not an interception. Some may result in that, but it's not a direct result.

[chef17]

Because a pick six is also called defensive scoring! When you have the ball, your defender becomes an offensive player. Again, logic. And again, my initial phrase was either your offense, or the offense of the other team. Because defenses have a higher chance of getting picks if they're also playing against a QB who's known to throw a lot of them.

Just like when your quarterback throws a pick, your offense is playing what? DEFENSE! You don't think about that do you?

Ok so if the punt team falls on a fumble at the 7 (punt team not being on the "offensive side" as you said earlier) and the offense runs it in, the defensive side is taken into consideration since they got the offense the ball. Face it, it is not possible to only take into account what the offense does.

[teeray]

And this is what shows you have 0 football logic and you have already been proven wrong 50 times in this thread with this one because while it certainly does have something to do with it, that's not how the NFL sees it.

Notice their terminology: registers. recovers. forces.

Only one of these implies this implies primarily a defense responsibility.

You ever see the NFL track stats that tracks a player's pass rushes and interception ratio? NO.

You ever see the NFL track batted balls and interception ratios? NO.

They DO whoever track forced fumbles and recoveries for defensive players. Go look on NFL.com. These are the only two they give a poo about, because they understand it's the only two in which a defense can have a direct effect. And we are great at this.

They way they see it, and it is how the game itself works, is a pass rush resulting in an interception is the quarterback's fault, not the defense's success.

And most of these result in incompletions. A GOOD quarterback will throw the ball away. Not in double coverage off his back foot. Makes sense doesn't it?

A defense can force a bad throw not an interception. Some may result in that, but it's not a direct result.

Tipped passes? Breaking on the ball? Disguising your coverage?? Hitting the QB?

Those don't result in interceptions? Those are plays by the defense. How you define it doesn't matter it is whether it is happening. For us it isn't happening.

Why is it that so many other teams seem to have QBs make mistakes against their defenses but not our defense?? Are we just unlucky??

Most of the QBs we have played seem to throw a lot of picks in games against other teams. Just not the Panthers.

Also think it is ironic that you glossed over the fact that we are ranked better than 70% of the league in offensive turnovers.

And even if you don't get turnovers. If you allow teams to drive to the 50 yard line every drive or score your offense's field position is going to suffer directly influencing the YPP.

:lol: Tell me about your football smarts again. :)

[The NFL Shield At Midfield]

how many times has this guy been banned?

No joke my ignore list consists solely of PFFL alts

[jamieboy]

Here's something else you should know.

NFL league average for takeaways: 1.42

NFL league average for giveaways: 1.59

We have 1.1 takeaways

And we give 1.5 giveaways.

But here's the difference. The average defense is expected to have 5.2 forced fumble recoveries as of this week or 0.57 forced fumble recoveries per game. We are average this week because we did not play. We were tied for 5th last week, and we only played 8 games so we are at .625. ABOVE average even though we did not play.

The problem with us only having 1.1 takeaways when our defense is ABOVE average in the only type of takeaway they can only do anything about should tell you the problem is our schedule, nor out D. It's our schedule of quarterbacks with low interception ratios this year. Understand that.

That also tells you something else. In the NFL an average defense can't even make up for 1 pick on their own. They are not expected to create 1 takeaway per game.

But the average quarterback does not throw 9 interceptions, or 1.125 per game.

The average quarterback does not create 11 turnovers. 1.375 per game.

Being tied for 24th in interceptions thrown is certainly not average

If it wasn't for our D being pretty good in takeaways, we'd be losing by 2 scores or more with our schedule.

[jamieboy]

Ok so if the punt team falls on a fumble at the 7 (punt team not being on the "offensive side" as you said earlier) and the offense runs it in, the defensive side is taken into consideration since they got the offense the ball. Face it, it is not possible to only take into account what the offense does.

That is absolutely true but again, what kind of fumble was it? forced or just a fumble?

Because once again a defense is only responsible for forced fumble recoveries.

I am not taking into consideration ONLY what the offense does. I'm only taking into consideration offense side of the ball when ranking efficient offenses. Which is the best way to rank them.

See how it accounts for just about everything you can throw at it? Now you try answering me these same questions with an offense's YARDS ranking. LOL.

How many can you answer that have anything to do with winning or points? 0.

In other words, there's no relationship between our offense's yards ranking and winning. Duh. Why? Because we have an inefficient offense. It's scoring efficiency is one of the worst in the league.

It's like if two cars needed to run a 500 mile race, and ours was a Corvette with a V8, but only had enough gas to make it 400 miles because of our $100 budget.

A Honda who goes a little slower, will win that race every time, while that V8-mobile will never get there.

[teeray]

Here's something else you should know.

NFL league average for takeaways: 1.42

NFL league average for giveaways: 1.59

We have 1.1 takeaways

And we give 1.5 giveaways.

But here's the difference. The average defense is expected to have 5.2 forced fumble recoveries as of this week or 0.57 forced fumble recoveries per game. We are average this week because we did not play. We were tied for 5th last week, and we only played 8 games so we are at .625. ABOVE average even though we did not play.

The problem with us only having 1.1 takeaways when our defense is ABOVE average in the only type of takeaway they can only do anything about should tell you the problem is our schedule, nor out D. It's our schedule of quarterbacks with low interception ratios this year. Understand that.

That also tells you something else. In the NFL an average defense can't even make up for 1 pick on their own. They are not expected to create 1 takeaway per game.

But the average quarterback does not throw 9 interceptions, or 1.125 per game.

The average quarterback does not create 11 turnovers. 1.375 per game.

Being tied for 24th in interceptions thrown is certainly not average

If it wasn't for our D being pretty good in takeaways, we'd be losing by 2 scores or more with our schedule.

What about our offense being better than 70% of the league in total turnovers?

And on this stupid kick you are on about how turnovers are defined. I don't really care how they are defined I care whether our defense getting them. They aren't.

Our offense is one of the best in the league in taking care of the ball. (Especially now that I know that the 3 fumbles weren't their fault they were created by the defense). Shouldn't our turnover margin be better since we are doing a good job relative to the rest of the league in not turning the ball over on offense??

[chef17]

That is absolutely true but again, what kind of fumble was it? forced or just a fumble?

Because once again a defense is only responsible for forced fumble recoveries.

I am not taking into consideration ONLY what the offense does. I'm only taking into consideration offense side of the ball when ranking efficient offenses. Which is the best way to rank them.

See how it accounts for just about everything you can throw at it? Now you try answering me these same questions with an offense's YARDS ranking. LOL.

How many can you answer that have anything to do with winning or points? 0.

Rankings efficient offenses take field position into account. Field position has to do with the offensive and defensive side of the ball. You cannot possibly only take into account what the offensive side does unless you exclude field position.

[teeray]

Let me tell you why you should take YPP with a grain of salt.

Some of you know that I do a bit of gambling to supplement my income (right now it is virtually my sole income :lol:).

One method for gambling that many people use (including myself at times) is a method some people call the "Total Dudley Method". In a nutshell it is a calculation of each team's last 4 games using offensive and defensive YPP to predict the score of a game. If you find large discrepancies (generally @5 points) in the predicted score from the Vegas spread you make the bet.

Well I was doing some work today for the games on Sunday and I came to the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh game.

After doing the calculations the predicted score using YPP was Cincy 25 Pitt 18.5. The Vegas spread has Pitt favored by 3. So you are looking at a total difference of 9.5 points between the spread and the YPP score!!! Normally this would be a GREAT bet and I would feel comfortable putting a large chunk of my bankroll on Cincy.

But I am still leaning toward taking Pitt or passing on the game altogether. Why? Because I don't just go by those numbers I do a bit more research and I found that Cincy's offense just isn't as good as their YPP would suggest.

For one their third down efficiency isn't that great. Secondly, they have had a propensity for not having sustained drives but happen to get big plays (not a bad thing but you just don't see that many sustained drives). Also they have several special team and defensive touchdowns.

Against Seattle they only had 256 yards of offense and scored 34 points. That is because they had a punt return for a TD and a defensive TD.

Against Jacksonville they had only 239 yards of offense and only 13 first downs but still scored 30 points. But they had a defensive TD, and 2 TD drives that started at the 50 yard line or better. One started on Jax's 28 yard line after Jackosnville's punter kicked a booming 22 yard punt and there was a personal foul against Jax tacked on the end play as well.

Plus the last 4 games for Cincy has been against pretty weak teams which I take into account as well.

So YPP can be useful but should be taken with a grain of salt. It doesn't always paint an accurate picture of what an offense or defense is doing.

I usually don't like quoting myself and repeating posts. But since PFFL doesn't have an answer for it I think he should read it again.

It is a real life current example how YPP can be misleading when evaluating offenses.

[jamieboy]

What about our offense being better than 70% of the league in total turnovers?

And on this stupid kick you are on about how turnovers are defined. I don't really care how they are defined I care whether our defense getting them. They aren't.

Our offense is one of the best in the league in taking care of the ball. (Especially now that I know that the 3 fumbles weren't their fault they were created by the defense). Shouldn't our turnover margin be better since we are doing a good job relative to the rest of the league in not turning the ball over on offense??

It means our team is better at protecting the ball. We don't fumble the ball as much as other teams. But Cam Newton throws a hell of a lot more interceptions than other QB's do since he is ranked 24th.

And we were ranked 15th and have been all year. Average. We are ranked 12th so we rank higher because we didn't play . Because our offense wasn't on the damn field. So basically our D needs to keep our Offense on the bench. lol;) It helps their rankings. Or maybe just get the ball out of Cam's hands. Either by running or releasing the ball quicker so he's not also ranked nearly last in sacks. Cause or O-line sure as hell has given him plenty of time this year, with the exceptions of a few fug ups by Bell.

But really it means the rest of our team is much better than other teams players at protecting the ball. Everyone except Cam Newton.

[teeray]

It means our team is better at protecting the ball. We don't fumble the ball as much as other teams. But Cam Newton throws a hell of a lot more interceptions than other QB's do since he is ranked 24th.

And we were ranked 15th and have been all year. Average. We are ranked 12th so we rank higher because we didn't play . Because our offense wasn't on the damn field. So basically our D needs to keep our Offense on the bench. lol;) It helps their rankings. Or maybe just get the ball out of Cam's hands. Either by running or releasing the ball quicker so he's not also ranked nearly last in sacks. Cause or O-line sure as hell has given him plenty of time this year, with the exceptions of a few fug ups by Bell.

But really it means the rest of our team is much better than other teams players at protecting the ball. Everyone except Cam Newton.

Actually we were ranked 15th because we were one of only of only a few teams that hadn't had a bye week yet.

It is actually been leveled out more so where we stand now is more representative of where we stand compared to the rest of the league.

[mav1234]

It means our team is better at protecting the ball. We don't fumble the ball as much as other teams. But Cam Newton throws a hell of a lot more interceptions than other QB's do since he is ranked 24th.

yeah, a heck of a lot more, but at least not as many as those bums Brady, Brees, Rivers, Freeman... not to mention he's in the company of Matt Ryan and just barely above that stinker Big Ben!

[X-Clown]

Before you continue any rational debate, keep in mind who you are aruging with

One word: Underdog.

Maybe it's just me but one thing that always gets me emotional when it comes to sports, to athletes and certainly to the Panthers is when they accomplish a little more than just a win.

Not that I have anything against great teams or players. My second favorite team is the Patriots, which are always reliable and consistent winners, but it always meant something more to me when a team or a guy that nobody notices or gives a chance to, accomplishes the impossible or the unimaginable. And even the Patriots's QB is led by one of those guys that proved even though he didn't have the name, the pedigree, or the fame, turned out to be one of the greats that every year is mentioned in sentences with some of the greats.

To me the Panthers have always been that team. We have always flew under the radar. We never had the media coverage other great teams get. Our best wide receiver, Steve Smith, was a problem-athelete and considered too small by many to ever make a difference on the NFL level. 10 years into his career and that's certainly not the case. He proved his doubters wrong. Our first true franchise QB, love him or hate him, was also a nobody, played in NFL Europe, and came in as a back-up, but out of all the QB this team has been through, he managed to be the first true franchise QB, and the only one to ever take us to a Superbowl. And on that day, he played toe-to-toe and throw-for-throw with Tom Brady.

And now here we are. The nobodys once again, being lead by another nobody. Mot of the fans don't even want him starting. And even more believe he won't even be here next year. He was passed over by an unproven rookie with a name this year, and has been passed over many, many times before in the past. Despite the fact that he won more games than lost as a starter on this team, he gets very little credit and is doubted by most.

Most around here already have labeled me as a Moore lover. Do I love him? No, I wouldn't go that far. But I do like him and I love the idea of him being another diamond in the rough. And I really hope this guy comes out there and proves his doubters wrong. So do I support him with all my heart? You're GOD DAMN RIGHT I DO! Matt Moore fits this team and this team's history like a glove and because of that, this Sunday my heart's going to be 100% behind this guy and behind this team.

I'm excited! And if you are not, go screw a sheep!

PS: One more thing. We are going to win on Sunday

[mav1234]

yeah man why argue with someone who liked matt moore man that loser ;)