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Dispelling the new myth about our offense and defense

teeray

By teeray,
in Carolina Panthers

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Stew23 Newbie

Stew23

Posted
Posted

Would you rather use DVOA from football outsiders??

Our offense is ranked 6th and our defense is ranked 31st (after last week's games. I don't think they have updated them for this past weekends games yet).

Why so I can waste more time explaining what you don't understand in the first place? Nah, I think most people get what I posted and you should stop posting stats. Our offense is also ranked 5th in yards. Does that = PPG and winning? Nope. What does DOVA and WINNING have to do with each other? What about DOVA and scoring efficiency? Nothing.

Everybody understands our team is VERY efficient in yards. They may not know it's thanks mainly to Steve's Smith 20.0 yard per catch. But you need points to go along with them to have an efficient offense.

Almost all advanced statistics source has our offense in the top 6 and our defense somewhere in the bottom 4.

But I am sure there is an excuse for all of them.

If it ain't YPP it isn't reliable!!11!

Because they are NOT when it comes to winning. And no not every advanced statistics site has our "offense" in the top 6. None of them do. They have our offense ranked in the top 10 in categories that have to do with YARDS. You don't click on each column do you to look at the other stats? And you don't put 2+2 together.

And yards per point, turnover margin, schedule and your QB has been the measuring stick since football existed. It's the #1 way to correlate stats to winning. None of your stats combine 1 with the other. Once again this is YPP! That's all that's listed.

Winning = YPP

1 W Detroit 11.9

2 T San Francisco12.1

3 W Green Bay 12.1

4 W NY Jets 12.3

5 W Cincinnati 13.0

6 W Baltimore 13.2

7 W Buffalo 13.3

8 W Chicago 13.9

9 W New Orleans14.0

10 W Atlanta 14.7

11 L Denver 14.9

12 W Houston 15.0

13 W NY Giants 15.0

14 L Arizona 15.4

15 L Minnesota 15.5

16 W New England15.8

17 T Tennessee 15.9

18 T Oakland 16.2

19 T San Diego 16.4

20 L Philadelphia 17.6

21 L Carolina 17.7

22 W Pittsburgh 17.9

23 T Dallas 17.9

24 T Tampa Bay 18.7

25 L Miami 18.7

26 T Kansas City 19.1

27 L Seattle 19.4

28 L Cleveland 19.4

29 L Jacksonville 19.8

30 L Indianapolis 19.9

31 L Washington 20.0

32 L St Louis 25.1

See a pattern?

I keep showing you this. You keep missing it. You see all the W's at the top? Rank your teams by EPA and see if it does that. Rank your teams by DOVA and see if you see all the W's at the top.

Do you see how NONE of the teams in the top 10 have losing records and one's tied? That's 90 win, 100% anti-lose.

Only 2 out of the bottom 15 have winning records? So if you are in the bottom 15 in YPP you have an 86% chance of being a losing team. If your team also happens to have a negative turnover margin your chances of having a winning record are 3%. Last week it was 6%. It's dropped. And it's going to keep dropping.

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teeray Rookie

teeray

Posted
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Posted

Why so I can waste more time explaining what you don't understand in the first place? Nah, I think most people get what I posted and you should stop posting stats. Our offense is also ranked 5th in yards. Does that = PPG and winning? Nope. What does DOVA and WINNING have to do with each other? What about DOVA and scoring efficiency? Nothing.

Everybody understands our team is VERY efficient in yards. They may not know it's thanks mainly to Steve's Smith 20.0 yard per catch. But you need points to go along with them to have an efficient offense.

Because they are NOT when it comes to winning. And no not every advanced statistics site has our "offense" in the top 6. None of them do. They have our offense ranked in the top 10 in categories that have to do with YARDS. You don't click on each column do you to look at the other stats? And you don't put 2+2 together.

And yards per point, turnover margin, schedule and your QB has been the measuring stick since football existed. It's the #1 way to correlate stats to winning. None of your stats combine 1 with the other. Once again this is YPP! That's all that's listed.

Winning = YPP

1 W Detroit 11.9

2 T San Francisco12.1

3 W Green Bay 12.1

4 W NY Jets 12.3

5 W Cincinnati 13.0

6 W Baltimore 13.2

7 W Buffalo 13.3

8 W Chicago 13.9

9 W New Orleans14.0

10 W Atlanta 14.7

11 L Denver 14.9

12 W Houston 15.0

13 W NY Giants 15.0

14 L Arizona 15.4

15 L Minnesota 15.5

16 W New England15.8

17 T Tennessee 15.9

18 T Oakland 16.2

19 T San Diego 16.4

20 L Philadelphia 17.6

21 L Carolina 17.7

22 W Pittsburgh 17.9

23 T Dallas 17.9

24 T Tampa Bay 18.7

25 L Miami 18.7

26 T Kansas City 19.1

27 L Seattle 19.4

28 L Cleveland 19.4

29 L Jacksonville 19.8

30 L Indianapolis 19.9

31 L Washington 20.0

32 L St Louis 25.1

See a pattern?

I keep showing you this. You keep missing it. You see all the W's at the top? Rank your teams by EPA and see if it does that. Rank your teams by DOVA and see if you see all the W's at the top.

Do you see how NONE of the teams in the top 10 have losing records and one's tied? That's 90 win, 100% anti-lose.

Only 2 out of the bottom 15 have winning records? So if you are in the bottom 15 in YPP you have an 86% chance of being a losing team. If your team also happens to have a negative turnover margin your chances of having a winning record are 3%. Last week it was 6%. It's dropped. And it's going to keep dropping.

I said that it was only good for broad generalizations but it is poor for true evaluation of an offense.

Nothing on that list changes my mind. There is no context. There are no variables. It is not weighted. It is too simple.

Unless you can explain to me how a 7 yard TD drive is 10x more valuable than a 70 yard TD drive I can't take it too seriously.

It is good for broad generalizations. It is easy for people to understand. It has some merit (albeit very little). But there are too many other factors that go into offensive efficiency that I don't accept it as a proof positive. Because it isn't.

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The_Mango55 Newbie

The_Mango55

Posted
Posted

Alright here's a hypothetical situation for the first quarter of a game:

Team A took their first drive 80 yards and scored a TD in just a few plays - YPP: 11.4

Team B got 3 yards and had to punt - YPP: Infinite I guess

Then Team A throws a pick 6 on the first play of the next drive. Team A's YPP stays at 11.4 even with that major mistake, while Team B's YPP goes to a ridiculous 0.43

Can you see now why using it to judge an offense sucks?

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sharkman Newbie

sharkman

Posted
Posted

Are you from America?

Clearly I rushed my statements and confused you. Sorry about that. I had a co-worker walk into my office while composing my post. My model of leadership in the work place doesn't include posting precise and coherent messages on a web forum.

To answer your question, yes I am as American as they come. Why else would I be spending work hours lurking this message board when I could be doing something productive? :)

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ShawnJohn Newbie

ShawnJohn

Posted
Posted

I said that it was only good for broad generalizations but it is poor for true evaluation of an offense.

Nothing on that list changes my mind. There is no context. There are no variables. It is not weighted. It is too simple.

Unless you can explain to me how a 7 yard TD drive is 10x more valuable than a 70 yard TD drive I can't take it too seriously.

It is good for broad generalizations. It is easy for people to understand. It has some merit (albeit very little). But there are too many other factors that go into offensive efficiency that I don't accept it as a proof positive. Because it isn't.

It's the best evaluation for winning.

And yes you dopes it IS what football betting is based on.

College and NFL Football Handicapping Methods

Yards Per Point is probably the single most powerful stat in handicapping college and NFL football. It's a stat that at a glance, can tell you a whole lot about any given team. It's a stat that should be used by professional sports bettors and recreational sportsbettors alike.

What makes this stat attractive to the recreational sports handicapper is that it allows a guy or gal who works a full week, and has a life outside of sports, to make educated selections on football games with only a minimal amount of work.

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ShawnJohn Newbie

ShawnJohn

Posted
Posted

Yards per point isn't an offensive stat, it's an offensive, defensive, and special teams stat. If your defense gets you an interception at the 20 yard line they have directly improved your YPP average.

Stop using it as offense only, it's not.

Really?

YPP(yards per point) is separated into two: offense and defense.

This is offense: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/yards-per-point

Those numbers are in fact offense-only YPP. Total offense.

And YPP, yards per play, or in others words "total defense" you will find at NFL.com. We are ranked 18th.

This is what makes guys like you confuse yourself with numbers. A defense can't get you an interception. Remember? An offense can give you one. The other team's that is. YPP takes care of takeaways though. It also takes care of field position. And yes a team's special team can improve it.

Because who is responsible for field position? Not your defense like most dumbasses keep thinking: special teams an the other team's offense or quarterback.

They are broken down:

Special Teams Offense:http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stat/special-teams-defense-category

Specifal Teams Defense:http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stat/special-teams-defense-category

And yes, it is a better indicator of your team's offense because YPP =

Offense + Special Team's offense = TOTAL offense.

Defense + Special Team's defense = TOTAL defense.

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ShawnJohn Newbie

ShawnJohn

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Posted

better get that defense fixed. what good offese won a superbowl without a defense.........................

Plenty.

There's never been a team that has won a Superbowl who had a lower YPP than it's opponent in the Superbowl though.

Never. It's impossible.

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