Dispelling the new myth about our offense and defense

[Stew23]

If only there was a way to evaluate all those things..... WAIT A MINUTE!!!

I heard of a cool website that takes all of these things and evaluates them on a play by play basis.

You should check it out. It is called www.advancednflstatistics.com

It accounts for all those things and more. Field position, turnovers (including where the turnover occurs), down and distance, scoring, third down conversions, etc. You know offensive efficiency.

It is right under the "Expected Points Added"

Oh wait. It says we are ranked 4th.

And we come full circle. Here is the link again.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php?year=2011&season=reg

Please note: this is a link to an actual website and not a link to one of my posts on another message board. kthanx!

Dude you opened the post with this stat that you do not understand and you are proving me RIGHT with it. Expected Points Added is what your offense is EXPECTED to score. But ours doesn't meet its expectations. That's what makes them INEFFICIENT. That's what makes you such a laughable poster. You post stats and have no idea what they mean or how to use them. And then you go to advanced stats to boot.

It is not efficiency.

It is not complicated to look at this post and see what the freaking correlation between what I am saying and winning is. Efficient offense +turnover margin is WIN. Nothing complicated about that.

EPA /= YPP or scoring efficiency. It does not equal efficient offense;

Winning and Offense Efficiency + Turnover margin ranking

1 W Detroit 11.9

2 T San Francisco12.1

3 W Green Bay 12.1

4 W NY Jets 12.3

5 W Cincinnati 13.0

6 W Baltimore 13.2

7 W Buffalo 13.3

8 W Chicago 13.9

9 W New Orleans14.0

10 W Atlanta 14.7

11 L Denver 14.9

12 W Houston 15.0

13 W NY Giants 15.0

14 L Arizona 15.4

15 L Minnesota 15.5

16 W New England15.8

17 T Tennessee 15.9

18 T Oakland 16.2

19 T San Diego 16.4

20 L Philadelphia 17.6

21 L Carolina 17.7

22 W Pittsburgh 17.9

23 T Dallas 17.9

24 T Tampa Bay 18.7

25 L Miami 18.7

26 T Kansas City 19.1

27 L Seattle 19.4

28 L Cleveland 19.4

29 L Jacksonville 19.8

30 L Indianapolis 19.9

31 L Washington 20.0

32 L St Louis 25.1

See a pattern?

Again this is something college kids know. It's what they talk about most when it comes to college football. No advanced statistics needed. And it's easier for anyone to understand.

So if you wanna know if you're going to win a game or not, look at your offense's YPP and their defenses Yards per play. Then look at their offenses YPP and your defense's Yards per play.

Look at their quarterback's interceptions per ATTEMPT and you will have a good idea of who's going to have a negative turnover margin in the game.

When you figure those 3 things out you can predict just about any win in football and get it right about 87% of the time.

[teeray]

Our defense's "total defense" ranking has hardly moved since we started the season even though we lose just about every game. No defense that has a 21st efficient offense can really improve.. Take the top 35 defensive players in the league and put them all one one team. And they can do nothing about the winning record of the team or if they have an offense ranked 21st in efficiency. Nada.

Our offense is also killing itself with turnovers and red-zone efficiency, and "not scoring last when it matters", resulting in one of the most inefficient offenses in the NFL which means we will lose most games we play and also killing our D and making them nearly last in points allowed.

It doesn't matter where our defense would be ranked, but they would probably be top 10 IF we had an efficient offense. It does matter where your offense's efficiency is ranked even if you have a top 10 defense. It also doesn't matter where your offense's efficiency is ranked when you have a clutch QB that is good in 4th quarter comeback or game winning drives. As long as you score last and win the game...all of your stats will improve, including where your defense is ranked.

Cincinnati's efficient offense, and their schedule is the main reason their otherwise, average defense, is ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed.

To give you an example if our offense played as efficiently as they did against Washington, we really would be the "true" #1 offense in the NFL. And they only got 253 yards that game and passed 23 times. Our running game on the other hand got 175. Hint Hint: Take the ball out of Newton's hands more, and don't turn over the ball, and figure out how to run the ball more....and we win.

And that day: our defense only allowed allowed 22 points, 18th in PPG and their scoring allowed efficiency was 18.55 which would make our D 2nd in the NFL in scoring allowed efficiency even though we would be ranked 22nd in yards allowed, worse than we are now at 18th. So we were ranked worse in defense than were are overall that day, but better in PPG or defensive scoring efficiency. All because our offense played efficiently. Go figure.

That would be great. Except our offense is ranked 4th in offensive efficiency and our defense is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php?year=2011&season=reg

[teeray]

Dude you opened the post with this stat that you do not understand and you are proving me RIGHT with it. Expected Points Added is what your offense is EXPECTED to score. But ours doesn't meet its expectations. That's what makes them INEFFICIENT. That's what makes you such a laughable poster. You post stats and have no idea what they mean or how to use them. And then you go to advanced stats to boot.

It is not efficiency.

Dude. You clearly have no fugging clue what "Expected Points Added" is. It has nothing, nothing to do with how many points we are expected to score.

As a matter of fact the "points" it references has nothing to do with the scoreboard (although TDs and field goals do have values).

:rofl:

edit: I may have overstated this a bit. Actual points by the league are used to create the valuation of the points used to determine EPA. But they are the same for every team so that doesn't change our rankings.

[Marguide]

PFFL/Stew23 trying to understand football:

Normal people:

Or normal people alt:

[Stew23]

That would be great. Except our offense is ranked 4th in offensive efficiency and our defense is ranked 29th in defensive efficiency.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php?year=2011&season=reg

Are you that dumb?

It's ranked 4th in EPA. That's not efficiency. Stop lying to people man.

[AceMan]

Soooo...what's the main problem with our offense? QB play?

[Stew23]

Dude. You clearly have no fugging clue what "Expected Points Added" is. It has nothing, nothing to do with how many points we are expected to score.

As a matter of fact the "points" it references has nothing to do with the scoreboard (although TDs and field goals do have values).

:rofl:

LOL. The entire fuging argument of EPA is based on points scored.

It is based on an offense's "expected" ability or get yards AND score to get down field and score. And yes it has very much to do with scoring.

It's a linear prediction "tool'. That is IF our team was efficient in the 4th quarter. And as we already know IT's NOT.

YPP takes into consideration everything, including Cam's 4th quarter play in comeback winning drives. That stat doesn't.

[Stew23]

Soooo...what's the main problem with our offense? QB play?

Absolutely. And schedule. Thank you man. It's that simple.

[teeray]

YPP takes into consideration everything, including Cam's 4th quarter play in comeback winning drives. That stat doesn't.

If you can explain to me how a team the has a 7 yard drive for a TD is considered 10x better, in terms of value, than a team that has a 70 yard TD drive I will give you a quarter.

[Stew23]

Teeray, one more thing. EPA is typically a player, not offense statistic. When it's used for a an entire offense, it's pretty much useless. It has no correlation to winning, obviously since we are 4th, and we are 2-6. Definitions for you:

EPA: "Expected points added" (could be positive or negative) that occur as a result of an action play.

Pass EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" through pass attempts by the QB.

Run EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" through scrambles, designed rushes and fumbles/fumble returns on running plays by the QB.

Sack EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" through sacks and fumbles/fumble returns on passing plays by the QB.

Penalty EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" on penalties by the QB.

Total EPA: Total clutch-weighted "expected points added" by the QB.

Note: Any perceived ties in QBR are broken by going to the next decimal place.

Nothing about efficiency. But it says a lot about clutch. I dare you to look at EPA for Cam Newton in the 4th quarter and start a thread about that(Hint: Make the thread title "Dispelling the idea that Cam Newton will ever win us close games playing like this". Lol.

For now you have dispelled your credibility on stat usage. :D

[teeray]

LOL. The entire fuging argument of EPA is based on points scored.

It is based on an offense's "expected" ability or get yards AND score to get down field and score. And yes it has very much to do with scoring.

It's a linear prediction "tool'. That is IF our team was efficient in the 4th quarter. And as we already know IT's NOT.

YPP takes into consideration everything, including Cam's 4th quarter play in comeback winning drives. That stat doesn't.

Advanced NFL Statistics uses its EPA for team efficiency. It is linked as such.

Would you rather use DVOA from football outsiders??

Our offense is ranked 6th and our defense is ranked 31st (after last week's games. I don't think they have updated them for this past weekends games yet).

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Different site, same result.

[The_Mango55]

It would mean Tom Brady would have 7000+ yards and 50+ bombs. And if Aaaron had him...he would be God.

Oh I see, you're the guy who sees that a basketball player hit 2 of 3 shots from 3 point range and says "Geez he should have shot 30 3 pointers, he would have had 60 points!"

You are right though, yards per attempt both Brady and Aaaron are kings. I still can't believe how many people are watching Steve do things like slow down to catch a pass that should have been in the endzone and gets taken down at the 1, or jumps up 6 feet in the air to catch a sailed high ball and takes it downtown against the Saints.

Aaron Rodgers is putting up an amazing YPA this year, probably one of the many records he is on pace to shatter. Brady is also really high at #3. Guess who is #4

:cam:

Bunch of freaking traitors. And it will bite you in the ass just like it did with Clausen. You guys made me out to be some crazy fuging hater last year too, and I only told you the truth. You JUMP ON ROOKIES like fuging flies and DON'T CREDIT OUR VETS AND REAL PROS!

But everyone's posting videos of Cam every week. Not ONE fuging video of Steve Smith's highlights this year on youtube. NOT 1.

Nobody is giving any credit to Smith? This might be your worst argument yet. I think it's pretty unanimous that everyone here believes Smith is a unanimous pro-bowler. Look at the "midseason awards" thread please.

[teeray]

Teeray, one more thing. EPA is typically a player, not offense statistic. When it's used for a an entire offense, it's pretty much useless. It has no correlation to winning, obviously since we are 4th, and we are 2-6. Definitions for you:

EPA: "Expected points added" (could be positive or negative) that occur as a result of an action play.

Pass EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" through pass attempts by the QB.

Run EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" through scrambles, designed rushes and fumbles/fumble returns on running plays by the QB.

Sack EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" through sacks and fumbles/fumble returns on passing plays by the QB.

Penalty EPA: Clutch-weighted "expected points added" on penalties by the QB.

Total EPA: Total clutch-weighted "expected points added" by the QB.

Note: Any perceived ties in QBR are broken by going to the next decimal place.

Nothing about efficiency. But it says a lot about clutch. I dare you to look at EPA for Cam Newton in the 4th quarter and start a thread about that(Hint: Make the thread title "Dispelling the idea that Cam Newton will ever win us close games playing like this". Lol.

For now you have dispelled your credibility on stat usage. :D

Almost all advanced statistics sources has our offense in the top 6 and our defense somewhere in the bottom 4.

But I am sure there is an excuse for all of them.

If it ain't YPP it isn't reliable!!11!

[Guest moninghaly]

defense defense ....