Dispelling the new myth about our offense and defense

[teeray]

BTW the fact that PFFL hasn't posted in like 45 minutes leads me to believe we are about to be in store for a doozy of a post. He is in his google and simple stats laboratory cooking up more nonsense.

I can't wait!!!! #feedthetroll

[teeray]

I am so tired of dumbasses like Teeray that has the backing of the forum for being a moron and not knowing how to use stats. I oversimplify things for YOU Teeray.

Because guys like you can't put 2 and 2 together. You go around and pick ONE stat and you rank teams by ONE stat. Which is the dumbest poo on the planet. You rank offenses against average defenses, or better said LEAGUE AVERAGE to get a true top 10. You rank defenses against average offenses, LEAGUE AVERAGE to get a true top 10.

And nobody here knows this? Not ONE fuging person?

:lol: You over simplify things because it is the only way you can understand them and/or the only way you can try to push this incorrect narrative.

I don't know where you get the "one stat" thing. Unless you are talking about Expected Points Added. But that isn't a stat it is (in a nutshell) an evaluation of the entire offense and defense on a play by play basis that is weighted to provide proper context (that is an oversimplified description so you can understand it better).

In other words a far superior and complex evaluation of offense and defense than the simple TYPG+PPG= efficiency formula. :rofl:

PS- calling me a dumbass doesn't suddenly make your point valid. Or even coherent, for that matter

[ed bell]

Because that's what decides everything. How many POINTS you get PER YARD.

False...that was easy

[teeray]

By the PFFL formula of choice a TD drive of 5 yards would be valued higher for an offense than a TD drive of 90 yards.

Yeah. Rock solid :rolleyes:

[Stew23]

Winning and Offense Efficiency + Turnover margin ranking

1 W Detroit 11.9

2 T San Francisco12.1

3 W Green Bay 12.1

4 W NY Jets 12.3

5 W Cincinnati 13.0

6 W Baltimore 13.2

7 W Buffalo 13.3

8 W Chicago 13.9

9 W New Orleans14.0

10 W Atlanta 14.7

11 L Denver 14.9

12 W Houston 15.0

13 W NY Giants 15.0

14 L Arizona 15.4

15 L Minnesota 15.5

16 W New England15.8

17 T Tennessee 15.9

18 T Oakland 16.2

19 T San Diego 16.4

20 L Philadelphia 17.6

21 L Carolina 17.7

22 W Pittsburgh 17.9

23 T Dallas 17.9

24 T Tampa Bay 18.7

25 L Miami 18.7

26 T Kansas City 19.1

27 L Seattle 19.4

28 L Cleveland 19.4

29 L Jacksonville 19.8

30 L Indianapolis 19.9

31 L Washington 20.0

32 L St Louis 25.1

See a pattern?

Denver has a negative turnover margin and QB named The Golden Calf of Bristol, so you are right Mav. I told you, you had the MOST sense here. So despite their efficient offense they have a losing record(although it should be noted Denver's won the last 2 out of 3, and they have switched QB's again this past game, so if they can just get a guy that doesn't turn over the ball(John Fox's philosophy), their efficient offenses will start helping in the W department, despite their 22nd ranked defense.)

Out of the bottom 15 teams in efficiency only 1 has a negative turnover margin an a winning record. 1. Pittsburg. Only 2 teams out of the bottom 15 with an inefficient offense have a winning record.

One's QB is named Tom Brady and the other Ben Rothlesberger. They are GOOD in the 4th quarter.

Offense inefficiency comes from: inaccurate QB & turnovers. 90% of ours come from interceptions. So do New Englands. Pittsburg is 32nd in turnovers. Worse in the league. Their defense can't do poo about it.

efficiency and + turnover margin = win.

Turnover margin /= defense.

OP= Idiot.

Carolina's inefficiency = losing.

Cam Newton = losing.

False...that was easy

Yes you are false.

[ed bell]

False...that was easy

And now we get the addition of more stats, but I don't see the turnover margins in your chart....you said PPY was everything. I said false.....cause it ain't everything....just like PPG ain't, just like all sorts of stat's ain't....It's a good stat, but you didn't dream it up and only one team rode it (and PPG) to a Super Bowl since 2003. But, so what.....

[teeray]

Winning and Offense Efficiency + Turnover margin ranking

1 W Detroit 11.9

2 T San Francisco12.1

3 W Green Bay 12.1

4 W NY Jets 12.3

5 W Cincinnati 13.0

6 W Baltimore 13.2

7 W Buffalo 13.3

8 W Chicago 13.9

9 W New Orleans14.0

10 W Atlanta 14.7

11 L Denver 14.9

12 W Houston 15.0

13 W NY Giants 15.0

14 L Arizona 15.4

15 L Minnesota 15.5

16 W New England15.8

17 T Tennessee 15.9

18 T Oakland 16.2

19 T San Diego 16.4

20 L Philadelphia 17.6

21 L Carolina 17.7

22 W Pittsburgh 17.9

23 T Dallas 17.9

24 T Tampa Bay 18.7

25 L Miami 18.7

26 T Kansas City 19.1

27 L Seattle 19.4

28 L Cleveland 19.4

29 L Jacksonville 19.8

30 L Indianapolis 19.9

31 L Washington 20.0

32 L St Louis 25.1

See a pattern?

Denver has a negative turnover margin and QB named The Golden Calf of Bristol, so you are right Mav. I told you, you had the MOST sense here. So despite their efficient offense they have a losing record.

Out of the bottom 15 teams in efficiency only 1 has a negative turnover margin an a winning record. 1. Pittsburg. Only 2 teams out of the bottom 15 with an inefficient offense have a winning record.

One's QB is named Tom Brady and the other Ben Rothlesberger. They are GOOD in the 4th quarter.

Offense inefficiency comes from: inaccurate QB & turnovers. 90% of ours come from interceptions. So do New Englands. Pittsburg is 32nd in turnovers. Worse in the league. Their defense can't do poo about it.

efficiency and + turnover margin = win.

Turnover margin /= defense.

OP= Idiot.

Carolina's inefficiency = losing.

Cam Newton = losing.

Yes you are false.

This is why your argument is based off of false logic.

First of all, this is an example of why I said that these formulas are only good for broad generalizations. It doesn't take a genius to know that if you score points and your defense turns the ball over more than your offense that generally speaking you have a high chance for success. You aren't telling us something earth shattering there.

But it means very little in terms of evaluating an offense or defense. Here is why you fail.

By your preferred efficiency formula, if you have 2 teams that scored the exact same amount of points and same amount of possessions during the course of a season. Yet one had an average starting field position of the 45 yards line and the other had an average starting position of the 20 yards line, the team that had starting field position at the 45 yards line would, in your eyes, be a more efficient offense. It doesn't take a genius to understand that this is incorrect. It is false logic.

Break it down even further to drive values for your formula. By this formula a 7 yard drive for a TD would hold a value of 1 point per yard (I am counting a TD as 7 points). Yet a 70 yard TD drive would hold a value of .1 point per yard. That means a 7 yard TD drive has 10 times the value of a 70 yard TD drive. Does that make any sense to you? The formula doesn't work at its most basic level!!

Now turnover margin. What you don't like to mention when you are talking about turnovers is the fact that the Panthers are in the bottom half of the league in turnovers. Yet there are only 4 teams that have less takeaways than our defense. Therefore our turnover margin is not very good. But I don't see how that is a glowing indictment on our offense. The thing you seem to ignore is that turnover margin involves both sides of the ball. Could our offense do better in terms of turning the ball over?? Sure. But our offense is doing better than half the league in that regard. Therefore, it seems logical that turnovers by our offense is not the main reason for our poor turnover margin.

Your entire narrative is filled with false logic with no real statistical backing. It is flush with broad generalities that don't paint an accurate picture of our offensive or defensive performance to date. If you want to continue with this go ahead, but you are looking foolish and naive.

[Stew23]

And now we get the addition of more stats, but I don't see the turnover margins in your chart....you said PPY was everything. I said false.....cause it ain't everything....just like PPG ain't, just like all sorts of stat's ain't....It's a good stat, but you didn't dream it up and only one team rode it (and PPG) to a Super Bowl since 2003. But, so what.....

1. I didn't talk about PPG and I have no idea what correlation you're trying to make there, because all I said was winning and PPY or YPP. Which is efficiency, and just about every top 10 most efficient offense will always make the playoffs. Anybody can win the Superbowl once you get there.

2. The OP quoted my post from my forum. So this is actually what I said. Let me restate it:

Inefficient offenses are primarily responsible for a team's turnover margin, as well as primarily responsible for most NFL takeaways. An NFL schedule that includes playing against teams with inefficient offenses(such as against QB's prone to turnover the ball due to a low completion % and who throw a lot interceptions, or against QB's who simply throw more on that Sunday and it happens repeatedly, has a much bigger impact on a team's turnover margin than an NFL's defense. A defense's ranking in ypg has no bearing on this, and their actual takeaway ability is insignificant compared to this more important factor.

AND this:

Truth: There is no correlation between a top 10 defense and a negative turnover margin. Zip. Zilch. None. It doesn't even help. These guys don't get any more takeaways registered on their stats than bottom ranked defenses. Currently more than half the teams in the NFL with defenses ranked in the top 16th defenses have negative turnover margins. Even Pittsburg with strong safety like Troy Polomalu, whose team is currently ranked last.

And you will find the explanation here: http://pantherstalk.com/forum/index.php?topic=14.0

And yes, I used stats because I know how to read them and how to use them correctly and that gets me banned and called an idiot. But numbers are the only way to clear out stupidity. So enough stats. There's your football facts. Which is what the huddle NEEDS TO MEMORIZE so it can actually have some REALISTIC discussion about the Carolina Panthers, their quarterback, their offense, and where we REALLY stand.

If the mods had any sense, they would take those 2 facts and sticky them. It would help air out the stupidity that goes on here.

Trying to prove this myth wrong:

"Argument#1: Defense is underperforming and is mainly to blame for our negative turnover margin. They are ranked 28th in the NFL in turnovers. They are ranked 28th in PPG. If we had a top 10 defense(NFL.com's yards allowed ranking) we could have overcome Cam Newton's interceptions, fumbles and our negative turnover margin because they could have gotten us more turnovers and we would win more games."

And it is a myth. but that is the perception here.

[Stew23]

This is why your argument is based off of false logic.

First of all, this is an example of is why I said that these formulas are only good for broad generalizations. It doesn't take a genius to know that if you score points and your defense turns the ball over more than your offense that generally speaking you have a high chance for success. You aren't telling us something earth shattering there.

But it means very little in terms of evaluating an offense or defense. Here is why you fail.

By your preferred efficiency formula, if you have 2 teams that scored the exact same amount of points and same amount of possessions during the course of a season. Yet one had an average starting field position of the 45 yards line and the other had an average starting position of the 20 yards line, the team that had starting field position at the 45 yards line would, in your eyes, be a more efficient offense. It doesn't take a genius to understand that this is incorrect. It is false logic.

Break it down even further to drive values for your formula. By this formula a 7 yard drive for a TD would hold a value of 1 point per yard (I am counting a TD as 7 points). Yet a 70 yard TD drive would hold a value of .1 point per yard. That means a 7 yard TD drive has 10 times the value of a 70 yard TD drive. Does that make any sense to you? The formula doesn't work at its most basic level!!

Now turnover margin. What you don't like to mention when you are talking about turnovers is the fact that the Panthers are in the bottom half of the league in turnovers. Yet there are only 4 teams that have less takeaways than our defense. Therefore our turnover margin is not very good. But I don't see how that is a glowing indictment on our offense. The thing you seem to ignore is that turnover margin involves both sides of the ball. Could our offense do better in terms of turning the ball over?? Sure. But our offense is doing better than half the league in that regard. Therefore, it seems logical that turnovers by our offense is not the main reason for our poor turnover margin.

Your entire narrative is filled with false logic with no real statistical backing. It is flush with broad generalities that don't paint an accurate picture of our offensive or defensive performance to date. If you want to continue with this go ahead, but you are looking foolish and naive.

You have NO idea how to use stats or football terms and how they work with the flow of the game.

You should have read my post.

According to NFL definitions:

Takeaway: When a defense forces a fumble and recovers the fumbled ball, recovers a fumbled ball by the offense or registers an interception.

Turnover: A turnover occurs when the team with the ball loses possession of the ball, which is then gained by the other team.

Giveaway: A giveaway is when a player's own actions result in a loss of the ball and the other team recovers it.

Defense can only really do anything about one type of takeaway, not turnover: Forced Fumbles Recoveries. And we were tied for 5th last week! We have one of the best defenses when it comes to getting takeaways, or as you so wrongly keep putting it "turnovers", in the damn league. The rest are given by the other offense. You have NO idea how football, foot ball terms and stats works, do you? You pretend you are smart but you are not.

And the rest is quoted in my other post. I said our offense's inefficiency and schedule, i.e the other teams inefficiency! And they are completely backed up by statistics.

Let me repeat it for you. Because you need to get this through your head. There is NO correlation between top 10 defenses and turnovers. NONE. Read the fact. Read my post if you're going to quote me here.

[Stew23]

TO Margin Defense Rank

1 Detroit +1.6 12th

2 San Francisco +1.4 10th

3 Buffalo +1.3 26th

4 Green Bay +1.1 28th

5 Houston +0.8 3rd

6 NY Giants +0.7 16th

7 Chicago +0.6 24th

8 Minnesota +0.5 21st

9 Tennessee +0.4 19th

10 Baltimore +0.4 1st

11 NY Jets +0.4 8th

12 Cincinnati +0.4 4th

13 New England +0.3 32nd

14 Tampa Bay +0.1 29th

15 Atlanta +0.1 18th

There's no correlation between a positive turnover margin and a high ranked defense.

And again:

Truth: There is no correlation between a top 10 defense and a negative turnover margin. Zip. Zilch. None. It doesn't even help. These guys don't get any more takeaways registered on their stats than bottom ranked defenses. Currently more than half the teams in the NFL with defenses ranked in the top 16 defenses have negative turnover margins. Even Pittsburg with strong safety like Troy Polomalu, whose team is currently ranked last.

That means the defense doesn't decide if you have a negative or turnover margin 8 weeks into the season: The NFL does and your quarterback does! If you face teams that have efficient offenses, which we did, we won't get many interceptions and fumbles.

The only way to make up for this is forced fumble recoveries. And we are one of the best defenses in this. We were ranked 5th last week midway through the seas. We are now tied for 8th because we didn't play.

[Stew23]

Oh and teeray this is why you are using false logic:

By your preferred efficiency formula, if you have 2 teams that scored the exact same amount of points and same amount of possessions during the course of a season. Yet one had an average starting field position of the 45 yards line and the other had an average starting position of the 20 yards line, the team that had starting field position at the 45 yards line would, in your eyes, be a more efficient offense. It doesn't take a genius to understand that this is incorrect. It is false logic.

Except that it's not false logic because you just described scoring efficiency: YPP. The number one problem with the Panthers and one of the four parts of an offense's efficiency: scoring efficiency, field position, protection of ball, accuracy of quarterback and time of posession. Or simply put turnover margin and scoring efficiency. So you agree right?

YPP = scoring efficiency. Positive turnover margin = field position, time of possession, offense efficiency. This stat can increase or decrease your offense's efficiency the most. YPP+turnover margin= offense efficiency, winning/losing "efficiency" if you will. The rankings I posted earlier explains this.

All you said there is that it's:

-it's not the defenses responsibility to improve your offense's efficiency. CORRECT!

- it's the the special teams's offense, not defense, that gets you field position and increases scoring efficiency. Special teams, like the offense, really suck. CORRECT!

So you just proved yourself wrong in the same argument while telling me I have false logic. INCORRECT!

But that argument = false logic. Correct!

This is why it's very important to know how to know and use the terms and the rules of football and how to apply the responsibility of the stats according to the flow of game. And it's not my preferred formula. Stop saying it's my formula. It's anyone that understands stats. It's 1 of only 2 stats that correlate to winning. That's just a fact, anyone, not just me, that understands stats knows.

It's not false logic. But some people here use "reverse" logic which is incorrect.

[jarhead]

At this rate of improvement our defense should be 26th worst by the end of the season.We have the worse DTs in the league and need a lb that can cover a TE.

Our offense is killing itself with penalties coupled with a weak right side of the line.

[Stew23]

At this rate of improvement our defense should be 26th worst by the end of the season.We have the worse DTs in the league and need a lb that can cover a TE.

Our offense is killing itself with penalties coupled with a weak right side of the line.

Our defense's "total defense" ranking has hardly moved since we started the season even though we lose just about every game. No defense that has a 21st efficient offense can really improve.. Take the top 35 defensive players in the league and put them all one one team. And they can do nothing about the winning record of the team or if they have an offense ranked 21st in efficiency. Nada.

Our offense is also killing itself with turnovers and red-zone efficiency, and "not scoring last when it matters", resulting in one of the most inefficient offenses in the NFL which means we will lose most games we play and also killing our D and making them nearly last in points allowed.

It doesn't matter where our defense would be ranked, but they would probably be top 10 IF we had an efficient offense. It does matter where your offense's efficiency is ranked even if you have a top 10 defense. It also doesn't matter where your offense's efficiency is ranked when you have a clutch QB that is good in 4th quarter comeback or game winning drives. As long as you score last and win the game...all of your stats will improve, including where your defense is ranked.

Cincinnati's efficient offense, and their schedule is the main reason their otherwise, average defense, is ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed.

To give you an example if our offense played as efficiently as they did against Washington, we really would be the "true" #1 offense in the NFL. And they only got 253 yards that game and passed 23 times. Our running game on the other hand got 175. Hint Hint: Take the ball out of Newton's hands more, and don't turn over the ball, and figure out how to run the ball more....and we win.

And that day: our defense only allowed allowed 22 points, 18th in PPG and their scoring allowed efficiency was 18.55 which would make our D 2nd in the NFL in scoring allowed efficiency even though we would be ranked 22nd in yards allowed, worse than we are now at 18th. So we were ranked worse in defense than were are overall that day, but better in PPG or defensive scoring efficiency. All because our offense played efficiently. Go figure.

[teeray]

Except that it's not false logic because you just described scoring efficiency: YPP. The number one problem with the Panthers and one of the four parts of an offense's efficiency: scoring efficiency, field position, protection of ball, accuracy of quarterback and time of posession. Or simply put turnover margin and scoring efficiency. So you agree right?

YPP = scoring efficiency. Positive turnover margin = field position, time of possession, offense efficiency. This stat can increase or decrease your offense's efficiency the most. YPP+turnover margin= offense efficiency, winning/losing "efficiency" if you will. The rankings I posted earlier explains this.

All you said there is that it's:

-it's not the defenses responsibility to improve your offense's efficiency. CORRECT!

- it's the the special teams's offense, not defense, that gets you field position and increases scoring efficiency. Special teams, like the offense, really suck. CORRECT!

So you just proved yourself wrong in the same argument while telling me I have false logic. INCORRECT!

But that argument = false logic. Correct!

This is why it's very important to know how to know and use the terms and the rules of football and how to apply the responsibility of the stats according to the flow of game. And it's not my preferred formula. Stop saying it's my formula. It's anyone that understands stats. It's 1 of only 2 stats that correlate to winning. That's just a fact, anyone, not just me, that understands stats knows.

If only there was a way to evaluate all those things..... WAIT A MINUTE!!!

I heard of a cool website that takes all of these things and evaluates them on a play by play basis.

You should check it out. It is called www.advancednflstatistics.com

It accounts for all those things and more. Field position, turnovers (including where the turnover occurs), down and distance, scoring, third down conversions, and basically every little thing that an offense does. You know offensive efficiency.

It is right under the "Expected Points Added"

Oh wait. It says we are ranked 4th. That doesn't jive with what you are saying. Weird.

Aaaand we come full circle. Here is the link again.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teampage.php?year=2011&season=reg

Please note: this is a link to an actual website and not a link to one of my posts on another message board. kthanx!