Mike Mayock Talks Cam Newton

[fieryprophet]

Now I'll agree with this. The expectations on him are so great that there is no way anyone could live up to it. Even as well as Cam is playing, he's not living up to the unreasonable expectations some have for Luck. And while I think he will have a good rookie year, people expecting Peyton Manning will be disappointed.

And I do understand some of this is backlash to hearing about him so much. But the funny thing is that I know people elsewhere who say the same thing about Cam. They say you can't hardly watch any football show without them talking about the greatness of Cam. So I think a lot of it is perspective. And my issue isn't with those that are just sick of hearing about him, but those that are trying to downplay how good he is simply because of that, thinking that he's stealing some of Cam's thunder, resentful of him spurning us last year (which I don't think had anything to do with the Panthers), or whatever.

Luck is a great college football player that should be a great pro, and I think we are fortunate to have someone that can be just as great on our team. But Luck truly has it all, so everyone is all gaga over him. After all, it's extremely rare for a college kid to have all the tools so buttoned up. The ironic thing is that if Auburn allowed Cam to do what we are having him do, I think we would have heard similar things about him. He just came from an offense that was considered gimmicky and required him to run half the time. So there were so many unknowns about Cam.

I just want to reiterate, my criticism has nothing to do with Luck vs. Cam or Luck and Carolina, because I felt this way watching him play last year. It's just that the hype has gone into some weird overdrive that makes me actually feel sorry for the kid, because he's completely screwed when he does come out of the draft. There's no way he'll live up to the hype being made about him right now.

I do get ticked when people (including you) talk about his ability to read defenses being anywhere near Peyton Manning's level, because it's not, not even close. Understanding the difference between man and zone coverage is not an extraordinary feat.

For one thing, we have yet to see him against a truly good defense, and the ones that he has struggled the most against (Arizone State's physical secondary being one) is closer to what he'll face every down in the NFL than what he plays against in a weak PAC-12. I actually hope Stanford makes the NCAA championship game against LSU or Alabama, because those are high-caliber defenses to judge his abilities against.

Again, Luck may very well turn into an excellent NFL QB, but there are flaws and unproven aspects to his game that have to be worked out before he's anointed as the next franchise savior. Frankly, the fans and the media need to just let the kid come out and be the best he can be without the added pressure of following a path others have made for him.

And I'll say the same thing about Cam: as much of a Panther homer as I am, and as excited as I am to have him as our QB, I know he's got a long ways and a lot of hard work ahead of him to get us to a Super Bowl. And if the team around him doesn't improve, it won't matter what he does. The only thing I ask is that he become the best player he can be, and the rest will just have to come down to fortune.

[Woodie]

1. I'm quite sure he will be able to make NFL quality throws at the next level. However, 50 yards downfield, on a laser? No. He'll rarely have to, however. And floating is not touch. If he has to throw with such finesse at the NFl level cornerbacks will be dancing for joy, because unlike the Pac-12, most teams have cornerbacks that can actually cover and recover on slow throws. And he does have a few slowballs a game.

2. I absolutely disagree. His pocket presence is average, at best. He often slides sideways rather than stepping up, and any pressure up the middle usually sends him running. He has great ability to set his feet even when he's out of position, but it is not the same as working from a muddy pocket.

3. The announcers typically get their assessments of what is going on completely wrong, doesn't matter who they are breaking down. I know what I've seen, and I've watched a lot of Andrew Luck. He's ahead of the vats majority of college QB's, but putting him anywhere near the level of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady is ludicrous. He may grow into that, but I simply don't see anything that would be the bare minimum of achievement for a serviceable NFL backup. For one thing, he's rarely faced with competent defenses, and about the only thing he manages to distinguish between is man/zone coverage. That is not high-level NFL quarterbacking, merely great college quarterbacking.

Don't play the "minimizing" angle on Luck. I call it exactly as I see it, and right now, I see hype. Hype based on a LOT of good potential, but hype nonetheless. I take the opinion that every single prospect has a more than 50% chance of failing at the next level, no matter who they are. So don't pull that bullpoo.

What has happened with Luck is that a very good college QB, with around 5-10% better skillset than most high level college QBs, has aroused a lot of scouting and fan hype just because that difference looks so much better compared to the typically poor quarterbacking skills of most college QBs. But at the NFL level, even the bums would dominate at the college level if they were sent back down, because they've had to adapt to a faster game with much smaller windows.

I will be completely honest: the more people say that he is a "can't-miss" prospect, the more I want to find a prop bet that let's me bet he'll be a flop. Not because of anything he's done, but because I long ago learned to dismiss groupthink, particularly when it filters down to the masses. Everyone said Cam would struggle, couldn't work from a pocket, and would destroy the franchise. When's the last time a "can't-miss" prospect actually dominated? Frankly, I don't even see Peyton Manning has having truly fulfilled his potential, considering his only Super Bowl came against a overachieving Bears team.

Well, you can try and convince yourself that he has all these perceived flaws, but pretty much every expert (and I'm not talking about talking heads, but people that have actually played, study, and know the QB position) disagree with you. And while you can minimize what the announcers say, the fact is that they not only talk about it, they show it, and it's clear as day to anyone that has even a remote level of objectivity.

And for the record, nobody has said or is saying that he will come in and be as good as Manning or Brady right off the bat. In fact, someone (it may have even of been Steve Young in the interview I saw, but I'm not totally sure) was asked where Luck would rank if he came in the NFL today, and they said he'd probably about a top 15 QB. Of course people talk about his ultimate potential being that of Brady or Manning, but nobody thinks he's there already.

[fieryprophet]

Well, you can try and convince yourself that he has all these perceived flaws, but pretty much every expert (and I'm not talking about talking heads, but people that have actually played, study, and know the QB position) disagree with you. And while you can minimize what the announcers say, the fact is that they not only talk about it, they show it, and it's clear as day to anyone that has even a remote level of objectivity.

And for the record, nobody has said or is saying that he will come in and be as good as Manning or Brady right off the bat. In fact, someone (it may have even of been Steve Young in the interview I saw, but I'm not totally sure) was asked where Luck would rank if he came in the NFL today, and they said he'd probably about a top 15 QB. Of course people talk about his ultimate potential being that of Brady or Manning, but nobody thinks he's there already.

I would tell Steve Young to his face exactly what I see. I would say it directly to Andrew Luck. Again, I'm not saying these are show-stopping, unrecoverable flaws, but they are there. People can interpret it differently, but I'm sticking by what my eyes tell me, and they tell me this kid is very good, but certainly not a top 15 NFL QB. That statement alone infuriates me, because it is wrong. Absolutely, completely, unmitigatedly wrong.

If Andrew Luck stepped onto an NFL field tomorrow, he would look worse than Jimmy Clausen. If he came out of the draft, got into training camp, learned an NFL playbook, worked on his pocket awareness, kept his deep downfield throws to a minimum, and put a bit more zip on the ball he would probably have a fantastic rookie season. But projecting that step is ridiculous. It takes time, and the pressure on this kid from day one is absurd.

Scouts are wrong. All. The. Time. Players can have all the tools, and every intangible, and completely fail at the next step. It happens every single year.

Or has everyone forgot Joey Harrington?

[Woodie]

I do get ticked when people (including you) talk about his ability to read defenses being anywhere near Peyton Manning's level, because it's not, not even close.

See, this is the thing, nobody is saying that anything he's doing is at Manning's level night now. Just that at the college level, he is doing a lot of the things Manning does, so the logical assumption is that he has the potential to develop into that type of player in the NFL. But like with everyone, it wll come down to many different facters. Will he be in a good system with a strong organization, will he be surrounded by dynamic offensive players, will he avoid the injury bug, and most of all, will he want it bad enough to put the kind of work in that Manning (or any truly great QB) does, etc.?

The fact is that there is no such thing as a lock college player. Everyone has risks. Heck, you may be right, he could get to the NFL and face defenses that he never imagined and all that hype goes right down the toilet. But all we have to go on is what he has to work with. We can't magically transform the Pac 12 into the SEC, so we have to extrapolate from the body of work he does have. And I, along with most others, have seen enough to feel he will be able to successsfully navigate the more complex NFL defenses, but until he does it's only speculation and guesswork...but educated guesswork.

Either way, if they keep winning, there's a good chance we'll get a good look at how he handles tough defenses since there's a possibility Stanford could play LSU in the National Championship game. Now that would be a heck of a matchup, Luck against those dynamic corners.

Oh, I do want to point out that I wasn't necessarily referring to you with the Luck/Cam comment. It was more a general point about something I have noticed from certain people anytime Luck's name comes up.

[CPF4LIFE]

Well, I've seen several of Luck's games, not just footage, and his hype truely is warranted. The kid has everything you could want in a QB. Anyway, here's some counterpoints to your issues:

1. His arm strength is not Cam or Vick elite, but it is plenty to make every throw he'll need to in the NFL. It's funny you mentioned Simms, because Steve Young was asked about what Simms said and basically laughed him off. He said he's seen almost every game Luck has played the last two years and there is absolutely no question he has more than enough arm. And from what I've seen, Steve is spot on. And I think you are mistaking touch with floating. When he's throwing the ball up, he's actually placing it in a spot where only his receiver can run under it to make the catch. But I've also seen him make plenty of downfield throws with a lot of zip. He just does what he needs to to put his receiver in the best position to make the catch.

2. Yes, his offensive line is elite, but saying he bails in the face of pressure tells me that you haven't actually watched many full games of his. While he doesn't get the constant pressure that some QB's have to deal with because his line is so good, he does do a very good job of standing in the pocket and letting the play develop when there is pressure. But he also has great feel back there and is very good at moving around to buy time. His pocket presence is actually a huge strength of his.

3. Sorry, but this is another instance of you showing you haven't watched many of his games. During pretty much every game I see, at some point the anouncers will break down exactly what he is doing, and show in replays just how well he goes through his progressions and is able to recognize where the ball should go. They'll also show how he sets defenses up and recognizes what the defense is doing and audibles to a better play to counter the defence.

I just find it funny that so many here are so insecure that they need to try and minimize just how good Luck is. The reality is that he is as advertised, but that in no way takes away from Cam or means that we missed out. In fact, I see those two being the Brady/Manning of their generation...six of one half dozen of the other. Whoever gets Luck is going to be a very happy team, just like we're very happy with Cam.

Now Luck still has to come in and show it at the NFL level, but that goes for every college prospect. However, based on everything he brings to the table, both on and off the field, I'd be very surprised if he didn't become a very good starter. Just how good depends on a lot of factors such as what kind of talent he is surrounded with and injuries. But he should be good.

Ryan Leaf is why i wouldn't be surprised. Picking Qbs is still a crap shoot no matter how hyped they maybe, and Ryan Leaf adds to it. So when it comes to Luck i will believe when i see it on a NFL field.

[monstercat]

To Mayock's credit, he has said from the beginning that Cam would be great if he loved the game enough to work at it. What bothers me though, is that there was never one shred of evidence that Cam didn't love the game or wasn't willing to work hard. A lot of analysts and fans just assumed that he had the same attitude as JaMarcus Russell, with no evidence to back it up.

[bauss]

To Mayock's credit, he has said from the beginning that Cam would be great if he loved the game enough to work at it. What bothers me though, is that there was never one shred of evidence that Cam didn't love the game or wasn't willing to work hard. A lot of analysts and fans just assumed that he had the same attitude as JaMarcus Russell, with no evidence to back it up.

Their evidence was the fact he had the same skin tone.

[Nicbsbll2]

Anyone that saw Blaine Gabbert play in college and thought "this guy is going to be an elite NFL QB" was either talking him up to so they would have someone to talk about leading toward the draft or just plain retarded.

[Cat'sGrowl]

tl;dr

[mav1234]

To Mayock's credit, he has said from the beginning that Cam would be great if he loved the game enough to work at it. What bothers me though, is that there was never one shred of evidence that Cam didn't love the game or wasn't willing to work hard. A lot of analysts and fans just assumed that he had the same attitude as JaMarcus Russell, with no evidence to back it up.

I think the "evidence" some would point to was the disaster at Florida and the media-overblown 'pay for play scandal'. Now, I think he's put that behind him and some of it didn't matter, but I do not think that it is just people going "durr he's black, let's compare him to Russell!"

[footballisasport]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/133301263.html

Relevant details:

This Mayock character came across like an condesencing neighbor towards Cam..YES, I said it....Him, Charlie, Classerly, and Lombardi are all the same. I have never seen so many, "we need to keep an eye on Cam" cause you know how his kind is. Let's face it, the constant comparison to Jamarcus was no accident...

I guess when QBs Luck, Blaine and Dalton allow fame and money to get to them like the Ryan Leaf, it's not their fault nor is it part of their character..:rolleyes::rolleyes:

And he's a liar...He had Jake as his second pick behind the QB who he was paid to back...Blaine Gabbert.

Also, funny how he scrutinized Cam with a fine tooth comb under the guise of, "we've got to do so since he's being drafted so high" but made all kinds of excuses for all of Blaine's issues which is now coming to light. But, we know none of Blaine's mechanical issues are his fault. It's the Jags offense..

[Sword]

Listened to Madden talk about Cam on Wednesday and how impressed he was. Thought the rookie QBs had no chance this year. He doesn't know of many QB's on 3rd and 14 can throw it for 17 yards in the air in get a first down. Your regular QB has to rely on the underneath throw and hope for a YAC first. But Cam can zip it right over/through the coverage and pick it up with his arm. Only a handful of guys in the league can do that.

[mav1234]

ahh, I can always count on you to amuse with responses to OPs without reading a single other post in a thread, fias. :)

[footballisasport]

I think the "evidence" some would point to was the disaster at Florida and the media-overblown 'pay for play scandal'. Now, I think he's put that behind him and some of it didn't matter, but I do not think that it is just people going "durr he's black, let's compare him to Russell!"

But comparing him to Jamarcus was such an easy road to travel...why not take it. I wonder why they aren't concerned that Luck, Blaine or any of the white QBs might become another Ryan Leaf? hmmmm Did Jamarcus get in trouble in college when he was 18?