Cam Newton Erases All Doubt

[Pantherball]

Alright, so to review your arguments:

*Cam is unclutch because he hasn't had a game winning drive, except for that one against the Jaguars which doesn't count because . . . underpants or something.

*Dalton's more clutch because he had a comeback against a bad Bills team and that same Jaguars team (except his counts).

*Newton's red zone struggles don't matter even though two games basically ended there, nevermind (Nirvana reference) all the field goals we had to settle for at other times, and all that matters is his choking in the Chicago game.

*His good fourth quarter against the Redskins shouldn't even be brought up because that would make too much sense

*You think Nirvana is the most depressing band in history because you are either a thousand years old or you listen to the worst goddamn bands in the world like Hinder, Nickelback, and Daughtry. Possibly both.

Nope, I apologize. You have done your kind proud.

Well almost except that I never said red-zone possessions on offense don't matter. They certainly do. I agree, we chocked just as much in the red-zone as we did in the middle of the field. I just showed you the offense did it overall, in the 4th quarter, not just in the red zone and you keep deflecting it when it's about as clear as day who was completely unproductive in the 4th quarter when it mattered in our losses. D played better in the 4th, Cam and this O played worse.

I think I have showed enough, but if you really want to, go ahead and punch Newton's numbers in the 4th quarter versus the rest of the games for the year.....I think that will reveal something for you.

And finally, I'm neither old nor young, right in the middle...and I also happen to be a musician and guitarist who writes his own music and yes does appreciate older musicians, including guys like Hendrix, who know a thing or two about good music. I can also learn how to play any Nirvana song in about 2 minutes...that is if I could stand it for more than 30 seconds. They have some of the most boring, and easiest to pick up songs you can find. And since they are purposely designed to sound like crap, beginners actually feel good about themselves copying them. We actually do a cover of them, and every time we practice that song I wanna beat the lead singer over the head with my guitar because I want him to switch it to Man in the Box by Chains. Nirvana may have made grunge popular, but they are far from being the best at it.

But they are a fitting example as their fans and Cobain's fans do go to some of the same level of delusion as some of our Cam Newton fans.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

Cam's QB rating in the 4th is higher than it is in the 2nd or 3rd and that doesn't account for rushing touchdowns.

Glad you agree on the redzone.

Saying Alice in Chains is better than Nirvana tells me all I need to know about your taste in music . . . and that I probably need to stay away from any local watering hole that you play.

And I'm heading off because everytime I log in to reply to your posts, you have edited them to add several extra lines of something that no one cares about (Tell me more about your musical prowess!) have a good one friend-o.

[Pantherball]

Take care now.

But not before this last edit: I said his QB rating in the 4th versus the rest of the game. I'd love to see those when you come back and get a chance to share them.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

Cam Newton's quarterback rating by quarter:

1st: 98.0

2nd: 71.3

3rd: 75.1

4th: 84.3

First 3 quarters combined: 82.1

4th Quarter: 84.3

Cheers.

[Pantherball]

Cam Newton's quarterback rating by quarter:

1st: 98.0

2nd: 71.3

3rd: 75.1

4th: 84.3

First 3 quarters combined: 82.1

4th Quarter: 84.3

Cheers.

Nice but those are overall figures. I figured you weren't actually going to take the time and break it down in his losses, as well as garbage time, so I did. I hope you really take the time to look at this, because it took me awhile to compile the data and you're probably not going to find it anywhere else.

So let's take a look at Cam's 4th quarter numbers in his 5 losses, which is what we were talking about:

____________________________________________________________________________

Arizona_______ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING

First 3 quarters: 15/16 322 20.1 2TD 1INT 132.3

4th quarter: ____9/17 91 5.4 0TD 0INT 68.5

Garbage time: ___N/A

Adjusted 4th: ___N/A

Advanced:

4th quarter:____9/19 84 4.4 0TD 0INT 60.0

Green Bay_____ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING

First 3 quarters: 17/30 243 8.1 1TD 3INT 54.0

4th quarter: ___11/16 189 11.8 0TD 0INT 108.6

Garbage time: ___4/6 77 12.8 0TD 0INT 109.7

Adjusted 4th: ___7/10 112 10.2 0TD 0INT 107.0

Advanced:

4th quarter: ___11/19 174 9.1 0TD 0INT 88.5

Adjusted 4th: ___7/13 97 7.5 0TD 0INT 78.0

Bears_________ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING

First 3 quarters: 18/29 273 9.4 0TD 1INT 78.6

4th quarter: ____9/17 101 5.94 1TD 0INT 90.6

Garbage time: ___6/7 77 11.0 1TD 0INT 152.0

Adjusted 4th: ___3/10 24 2.2 0TD 0INT 39.6

Saints________ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING

First 3 quarters: 12/16 174 10.9 1 TD 1INT 104.7

4th quarter: ____4/15 50 3.33 1TD 0INT 63.2

Garbage time: ___N/A

Adjusted 4th: ___N/A

*Alternate:

First 3 quarters: 13/20 179 8.95 2TD 1INT 106.0

4th quarter: 3/11 45 4.09 0TD 0INT 44.1

Falcons_______ C/ATT YDS AVG_ TD_ INT_RATING

First 3 quarters: 15/24 163 6.79 0TD 1INT 65.1

4th quarter: ____6/11 74 6.7 0TD 2INT 36.0

Garbage time: ___5/8 62 7.8 0TD 1INT 46.9

Adjusted 4th: ___1/3 12 4.0 0TD 1INT 6.9%

*Alternate:

Garbage time: ___5/7 62 7.8 0TD 0INT 98.5

__________________________________________________________________________

Definitions

Garbage time: an offensive possession in the final minutes or seconds of the 4th quarter where the scoring outcome of the drive cannot alter the outcome of the game(i.e. losing by more than 8 points)

Adjusted rating: just the normal 4th quarter QB rating minus garbage time stats. His actual rating when still playing to win.

Advanced rating: Sack adjusted rating. Depending on the school of thought you subscribe to, some advanced QB statistics and analysts include sacks against their passing attempts, and negative yards against their passing yards.

*Alternate: Without the first 4 pass plays of the 4th quarter against the Saints, the scoring end of a 3rd quarter drive which began at Saints 19 yard line in the 4th and culminated with a scoring TD but crossed over into the 4th quarter for 2 minutes. Without his final Hail Mary interception against the Falcons, because it shouldn't really count against him. See below.

RECAP: Cam Newton's QB rating in our 5 losses

First 3 quarters average rating: 86.9(*87.2)

4th quarter rating: 73.4(*63.7)

Adjusted 4th quarter rating(outside of garbage time) : 57.0

Sack adjusted 4th quarter rating: 67.7

Sack adjusted 4th quarter rating(outside of garbage time): 49.5

Garbage time QB rating: 102.9

So basically if you just look at your regular, full 4th quarter rating, he drops from an above average of 86.9 during the first 3 quarters to a sub-par 73.4 in the 4th. Now where it gets interesting is when you consider that taking out garbage time stats he drops to a Clausenesque 57.0! Pretty atrocious. And if you happen to subscribe to advanced stat school of thought, even his full sack adjusted 4th quarter rating average was a pretty ugly 67.7 and taking out garbage time drops him down to a shameful 49.5.

Conclusion: How much does the pressure to make a comeback win in the 4th quarter affect Cam in our losses? Well he goes from an above average 86.9 passer rating in the first 3 quarters down to a paralyzing 57.0 when we're tied or down and driving to come back from behind in the 4th.

The irony? His garbage time rating is a 102.9, better than any other quarter rating or average, and better than his career rating of 82.8. What this says is that it's not so much the pressure of running out of time and having to speed up that bothers him, but the pressure of actually winning the close game, when we're tied or behind.

*Alternate:

Just because those 2 events skewed his 4th quarter numbers quite a bit I threw this in as well. As expected, his first 3 quarters average improves to 87.2 while his complete 4th quarter rating average drops down to 63.7, 53.2 outside of garbage time, and his sack adjusted rating plummets to a lowly 45.7 outside of garbage time. No matter which one you look at, they're all bad. Now that's not really revealing anything different but what is worth pointing out is his actual garbage time rating. If you take out the Hail Mary interception his garbage time rating actually goes up to an elite 120.1! Garbage time vs 4th quarter = 120.1 vs 45.7. Ouch! If we attributed that difference to clutch factor he'd be a -74.4, the difference between his play under pressure and when the game's already lost. The moment the pressure's gone, he skyrockets. So he was elite in the 4th in losses but only when it didn't count:(

PS: I'll give you some time to let all of that sink in. As for the rest please don't shoot me. I'm just the messenger. The numbers are what they are until Cam does something about them. I'm just saying: erases all doubts my ass. Oh, and more thing: so it wasn't the defense, just to make that one clear. Their numbers don't do this in the 4th. In fact my quick read of the stats tells me its the opposite but someone else can punch those in to be sure. Or Naanee. His numbers don't fluctuate like this either.

[ed bell]

Wow, that certainly took a monumental effort, but I'm not real sure what it actually accomplishes. There are simply too many qualifiers and questionable conclusions drawn when you blend all of your calculations together. The main thing I take away from it when trying to interpret your post is that he had a bad 4th quarter in the Falcons game....I don't think anybody needed your breakdown to illuminate that fact.

Overall, you seem to be relying on massaged stats to back up your opinion that Cam can't work and deliver under pressure. In my opinion he can and has. I had my doubts about the kid coming into the season and like the article states, they have been erased.

When the entire team steps up their game and eliminates the mistakes and poor play that killed our chances in the 5 losses (we were in every game), this team is going to be fun to watch.

I'll end with a quote: "Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything." ~Gregg Easterbrook

[rayzor]

pantherball = pffl?

something similar about their arguments.

[Pantherball]

Wow, that certainly took a monumental effort, but I'm not real sure what it actually accomplishes. There are simply too many qualifiers and questionable conclusions drawn when you blend all of your calculations together. The main thing I take away from it when trying to interpret your post is that he had a bad 4th quarter in the Falcons game....I don't think anybody needed your breakdown to illuminate that fact.

Overall, you seem to be relying on massaged stats to back up your opinion that Cam can't work and deliver under pressure. In my opinion he can and has. I had my doubts about the kid coming into the season and like the article states, they have been erased.

When the entire team steps up their game and eliminates the mistakes and poor play that killed our chances in the 5 losses (we were in every game), this team is going to be fun to watch.

I'll end with a quote: "Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything." ~Gregg Easterbrook

Woah, massaged stats? Nobody's messing with any stats and this is a more accurate assessment of his 4th quarter passer rating than anything you'll find on ESPN or NFL.com so I resent that. First of all just looking at his overall rating, without breaking it down at all drops from 86.9 to 73.4. That's respectable to sub par.

And that's if you don't consider the effect of sacks and give him the Saints TD, which again, was a third quarter drive that ended up with a TD at the top of the 4th. But even with that, outside garbage time, he's had a bad 4th quarter in every loss, except GB, not just Falcons.

Arizona first 3 quarters:132.3

4th: 68.5

Green Bay first 3 quarters: 54.0

4th: 107.0

Bears first 3 quarters: 78.6

4th: 39.6

Saints first 3 quarters: 104.7

4th: 63.2

Falcons: first 3 quarters: 65.1

4th: 6.9%

86.9 vs 57.0 average.

Discount garbage all you want, but when your garbage time rating is 102 and the rest of the 4th drops to 57.0, that pretty much says it all about its importance, doesn't it?

PS: I had a feeling some were not going to be able to handle this and here comes the deflection...

[Pantherball]

Here's another interesting revelation. Percentage completion in our losses:

First three quarters: 77/115 1175 67% 10.21

4th quarter: 39/76 505 51% 6.64

Breaking down the 4th:

Garbage: 15/21 216 71% 10.28

Non-garbage: 24/55 289 43% 5.24

So again, this isn't an accident. It's not just his QB rating and it isn't because of a TD here or interception there. His overall completion percentage plummets and so does his yards per completion.

His yards per completion in garbage time is nearly identical to his third quarter number. No effect. His yards per attempt right before the final nail in the coffin is 5.24 and completion percentage is 43%. After that point, and when the pressure is off, he goes back to his normal self, regardless of whether he has to speed up or throw on every down.

[mav1234]

Do you have a breakdown of his sacks per quarter? Too lazy to look them up myself.

[Pantherball]

I was going to do that but just doing the 4th quarter in 5 games took forever. I will say this much as far as sacks go. If you plug in his sacks in his 4th quarter: 39/81 483 48%, 5.96. Now this is overall, including garbage.

If you look at non-garbage:

24/60 267 40% 4.45

What's more important there, isn't that his completion % drops another 8%, which makes little difference since you're still under 50%, but its his yards per attempt. So on average it takes us 3 downs to get 9.9 yards which is short of a first down.

What's spooky is when you look at a number of different stats....there's always a 1 that keeps popping up everywhere. It's eerie. He also has 1 TD in live 4th quarter time and 1 in garbage time. He's also only had 1 interception in each broken down the same way.

So it's always that 1 that's on the wrong side of things. Whether an inch, a yard, a completion % number, a TD, or interception. It's just 1. Fitting but it needs to cross over in our favor.

[mav1234]

I was more curious if the number of sacks he takes increases in the 4th. I don't agree with your assessment of garbage time but I know it's the norm, so I understand why you're using it.

I just think you're doing all this way too soon. He's played in a handful of games, far too few to claim that he is choking imo. It's not like our defense is stepping up in those games, either. The games we've won, both the defense and offense have stepped it up in the 4th quarter. I don't think we've really had a game where one unit did it's job and the other did not in the 4th quarter.

[rayzor]

I was more curious if the number of sacks he takes increases in the 4th. I don't agree with your assessment of garbage time but I know it's the norm, so I understand why you're using it.

I just think you're doing all this way too soon. He's played in a handful of games, far too few to claim that he is choking imo. It's not like our defense is stepping up in those games, either. The games we've won, both the defense and offense have stepped it up in the 4th quarter. I don't think we've really had a game where one unit did it's job and the other did not in the 4th quarter.

he's almost making it sound like newton is a rookie with only 7 weeks of play under his belt.

defense really hasn't helped out things for him either.

there are things to work on, but no real red flags at this point. as good as he is, he's still a work in progress and far from a finished product. he's doing fine and really there is nothing to be worried about with him.

whole lot of research and effort that isn't really needed, imo.

[Pantherball]

Also worth mentioning, those sack adjusted numbers as well as yards per attempt reveal he gets conservative in the 4th and when the pressure is on, while opposing teams D's buckle down and step up.

That's why those drop. He hasn't adjusted to NFL defenses playing much more aggressive late in the game when they are trying to protect the lead. He has a tendency to hold on to the ball longer, which is the opposite of what you should be doing so he either ends up getting sacked or dumping it off short because his receivers are getting wrapped up.

Pressure of winning man. It's real. I feel it just when reading the numbers. It's pretty crazy. I expected to see a difference, but I didn't know it would be this big a swing. I think what may have been a blessing in disguise, is that first quarter of the Washington game. That was actually pretty similar to how defenses tend to play when protecting a lead in the 4th.

You just have to figure them out quicker in the 4th. But the key is getting the ball out quick. That adjustment they made at half time needs to happen in the 4th too. They should be practicing more blitz packages with more passes to the tight ends where he's releasing the ball prior to the TE getting into his spot. He's currently doing this with his option, and my bet is it's his safe dump off, not the first or even second read. They need a change of strategy in the 4th because they use the same plays when we're down like we do when we're up. And that's going to work against you. When defenses change, you have to change.