Cam Newton Erases All Doubt

[The_Mango55]

Why are you only counting the losses in this argument

[mav1234]

tbqh if the worst we can say about Cam is that in our 5 losses his play has been indicative of the fact he can't throw the entire team on his back yet and carry us to wins, I can't really disagree with that and all I can say is that at least he's fighting 'till the end in those games, 'garbage' time or not.

Cam's already so exceeded my expectations for his personal level of play I have trouble being disappointed in any phase of his game right this second.

Maybe if we lose this Sunday I'll be more whiney and more likely to agree with you though PB. ;)

[The_Mango55]

Wait a minute now. Pantherball was the guy dismissing every advanced statistic about how much our defense sucks without even bothering to look at them because he doesn't believe advanced statistics are worth anything.

But here he is trying to make some sort of bastard child advanced statistics and present them as evidence.

[Pantherball]

I was more curious if the number of sacks he takes increases in the 4th. I don't agree with your assessment of garbage time but I know it's the norm, so I understand why you're using it.

I just think you're doing all this way too soon. He's played in a handful of games, far too few to claim that he is choking imo. It's not like our defense is stepping up in those games, either. The games we've won, both the defense and offense have stepped it up in the 4th quarter. I don't think we've really had a game where one unit did it's job and the other did not in the 4th quarter.

I have no idea if his sacks change but I'm willing to bet if you plug the D's numbers they don't drop like this in the 4th. They may even show the opposite like most defenses.

I think 5 games is a decent enough sample to judge pressure. No one's passing any long term conclusions, but in the 5 losses, pressure got to him to the point where his passer rating is not good enough to win.

And again, even if you include garbage time, he's still dropped to a sub par 73.4 rating in the 4th overall. No matter how you look at it, he's been worse in the 4th, whether overall, or just prior to garbage time when we are down or tied in the 4th.

But you can't deny the difference between playing to win the game, and playing when the game's lost. That garbage time is dead offensive time. It's miracle land. It's The Golden Calf of Bristol prayer time. 99% of the time though the game's done and they're nothing but honorary drives or practice time. You only have a chance to win if you score AND convert an on-side kick because you need more than 8 points with less than 2 minutes left on the clock.

The only time you really get behind that is in the playoffs or Superbowl.

I mean come on, his garbage time rating is 120.1 without the Hail Mary interception! lol. If he could do that for the entire 4th quarter when we're down..we'd have won every damn game. But as it stands 57.0 ain't gonna get it done when you are down and can't rely on the run game either. You gotta fix that. Either play with the lead all year, or fix this stat.

[Pantherball]

Why are you only counting the losses in this argument

Because the conversation was about the reason why we lost our games and winning in comeback 4th quarter fashion. It was about being clutch.

Wait a minute now. Pantherball was the guy dismissing every advanced statistic about how much our defense sucks without even bothering to look at them because he doesn't believe advanced statistics are worth anything.

But here he is trying to make some sort of bastard child advanced statistics and present them as evidence.

And there's no need for discussing advanced statistics here. They're optional if you care for them. That's why I kept them separate. The only advanced statistic is whether you care to include sacks or not. That's it. That's the only difference and it barely make a difference in the discussion. Both, standard passer rating and sacks adjusted show the same thing. Unlike the defense, which looks a lot worse in advanced statistics and those advanced statistics make no account for scoring points allowed due to turnovers and field position which is an offensive boo boo.

I mean take your pick: 57.0 QB rating standard vs 49.5 QB rating, sacks adjusted. Does it make a difference? They both suck and they're both in garbage territory. And compared to his 86.9 rating the rest of the time, they both show a very significant drop.

But hey you can either try arguing about the person posting the numbers, or the numbers themselves. If you'd like you can go ahead and break down the defense in the same way. I promise I'll look at them. It would be interesting to look at.

[mav1234]

Why are you only counting the losses in this argument

his point is that the difference between wins and losses is Cam's play. I think part of it is that the defense is actually getting some stops in our wins.

tbqh I think it's the entire team that is having trouble finishing games in the 4th. Still finding ways to win... I think putting the majority of the blame for the losses on Cam is unreasonable. He didn't win us games when perhaps he could have(neither did any other single player that had the chance to though), but the only loss I feel like he had a big hand in was vs Atlanta, and I expect games like that from a rookie. He's a rookie. Yes, he's played 7 games, but he's still a rookie.

[mav1234]

this is really silly, but...

ok, so we are allowing an average of 26.1 points per game, and 30.6 per loss. If we divide that between 4 quarters, we'd get 6.525 points per quarter in every game and 7.65 in losses. Now, if we add up all the points our defense has given up in losses, we see that we have given up 55 fourth quarter points in our 5 losses. That's an average of 11 points per 4th quarter loss. We're giving up more points in the 4th quarter than we typically do in those same losing efforts.

edit: We've given up a single 4th quarter touchdown in our two wins... but truth be told, two wins is a little small of a sample there. Hopefully we'll have a third to look at soon. ;)

edit2: cleaned up numbers

[Pantherball]

this is really silly, but...

ok, so we are allowing an average of 26.1 points per game, and 30.6 per loss. If we divide that between 4 quarters, we'd get 6.525 points per quarter in every game and 7.65 in losses. Now, if we add up all the points our defense has given up in losses, we see that we have given up 55 fourth quarter points in our 5 losses. That's an average of 11 points per 4th quarter loss. We're giving up more points in the 4th quarter than we typically do in those same losing efforts.

edit: We've given up a single 4th quarter touchdown in our two wins... but truth be told, two wins is a little small of a sample there. Hopefully we'll have a third to look at soon. ;)

edit2: cleaned up numbers

Ok and now take away the points the defense gave up off of OFFENSIVE turn overs. And do the math.

LOL.

I know you won't because this is where your logic breaks down every time. You don't wanna look at that number. That reveals a similar number in both wins and losses for our defense and it also reveals a 16th-18th ranked defense in points allowed. Which is exactly what this D is. Middle of the pack.

[mav1234]

Ok and now take away the points the defense gave up off of OFFENSIVE turn overs. And do the math.

LOL.

I know you won't because this is where your logic breaks down every time. You don't wanna look at that number. That reveals a similar number in both wins and losses for our defense and it also reveals a 16th-18th ranked defense in points allowed. Which is exactly what this D is. Middle of the pack.

It's not just our defense, but our special teams as well. Which is why I said our team is having trouble finishing. I think the defense and special teams deserve at least as much blame as the offense and likely more in a number of the losses.

But sure, removing the single interception that a team scored points after in the 4th quarter(Atlanta, where the majority of us readily have said Cam struggled in the 4th), we're giving up an average of 9.6 points in the 4th quarter.

I'm not going to go through every single turnover and remove points from them because then you'd need to remove any points our offense generated off of turnovers as well, and you'd have to find some weird way to account for the miserable field position our offense typically has.

Bottom line is this: No matter how you look at Cam and his numbers, our defense and special teams have let us down in the 4th quarter just as often, if not more often. Our losses have been team efforts... just as our wins have.

[BBQ&Beer]

Ok and now take away the points the defense gave up off of OFFENSIVE turn overs. And do the math.

LOL.

I know you won't because this is where your logic breaks down every time. You don't wanna look at that number. That reveals a similar number in both wins and losses for our defense and it also reveals a 16th-18th ranked defense in points allowed. Which is exactly what this D is. Middle of the pack.

So using that logic we should also use defensive take aways & ST play in the formula.

[BBQ&Beer]

It's not just our defense, but our special teams as well. Which is why I said our team is having trouble finishing. I think the defense and special teams deserve at least as much blame as the offense and likely more in a number of the losses.

But sure, removing the single interception that a team scored points after in the 4th quarter(Atlanta, where the majority of us readily have said Cam struggled in the 4th), we're giving up an average of 9.6 points in the 4th quarter.

I'm not going to go through every single turnover and remove points from them because then you'd need to remove any points our offense generated off of turnovers as well, and you'd have to find some weird way to account for the miserable field position our offense typically has.

Bottom line is this: No matter how you look at Cam and his numbers, our defense and special teams have let us down in the 4th quarter just as often, if not more often. Our losses have been team efforts... just as our wins have.

Exactly.

[Pantherball]

It's not just our defense, but our special teams as well. Which is why I said our team is having trouble finishing. I think the defense and special teams deserve at least as much blame as the offense and likely more in a number of the losses.

But sure, removing the single interception that a team scored points after in the 4th quarter(Atlanta, where the majority of us readily have said Cam struggled in the 4th), we're giving up an average of 9.6 points in the 4th quarter.

I'm not going to go through every single turnover and remove points from them because then you'd need to remove any points our offense generated off of turnovers as well, and you'd have to find some weird way to account for the miserable field position our offense typically has.

Bottom line is this: No matter how you look at Cam and his numbers, our defense and special teams have let us down in the 4th quarter just as often, if not more often. Our losses have been team efforts... just as our wins have.

It's ok I will because this is pretty easy. These are our opponents points off of our offensive turn-overs:

________________________________________________

Arizona:

1 interception. next play: result 7 points

*special teams: 1 punt return - 7 points

GB:

4 turnovers - result 9 points(no TD's allowed)

Bears:

1 interception(pick 6) - result 7 points

*Special teams: 1 - 7 points

Saints:

1 interception - result 7 points

*Rivera - 3 points

Falcons:

1 interception - result 7 points

____________________________________________

Total off of turn overs: 37 points

Turnovers + special teams+Rivera: 54 points

Now earlier you said our D gave up 26.1 points per game, and 30.6 per loss. So that means they gave up 153 in our losses.

(153-37)/5 = 23.2 points. Hmm...

*Now if you factor the Rivera and special teams factor our D gave up:

(153-54)/5 = 19.8 points! I'll take that any given Sunday unless we're playing Jacksonville in the rain. Because then our D actually can do even better.

Anyway, I think it's funny how this conversation got focused on the D real quick. In the mean time the real culprit, Mr. 86.9 QB in the first 3 quarters vs 57.0 QB in the 4th just gets discounted. Let's just bury those numbers in the back. We don't need to look at those;)

So statistically, it's backing up what I have been saying, does it not? Cam's play in the 4th when we're down and turnovers has been the only significant, clearly observable, measurable difference between our losses and our wins.

[King Taharqa]

Pantherball are you related to someone playing on our defense? Thats the only logical explanation I can find why you think the job they've done this season is satisfactory.

[mav1234]

haha no. but I like that when the stats, as meaningless as they are, don't support your argument you change the argument from "fourth quarter" to "entire game."

Here's how it breaks down:

Points given up in the fourth quarter due to mistakes made by Cam - 7

Points given up in the fourth quarter not related to Cam - 48

So we can say that we are giving up 9.6 points per 4th quarter unrelated to Cam. If we've given up 153 points in our losses and 34 are due to Cam outside the 4th and 7 inside, that means we've given up 112 points in 20 quarters unrelated to Cam. That's 5.6 points per quarter on defense unrelated to Cam, yet in the 4th quarter, we've given up 9.6 unrelated to Cam.

Can you see yet why this isn't all about Cam Newton? I don't care if you blame special teams or Rivera, until Cam Newton is playing on special teams or coaching those mistakes are not his fault either.