I have $1600 to bet on the bears game

[Razzy]

What is my bankroll exactly?

The pool of money you bet from. Big wins are fun, but keeping that up is just luck. You're far more likely to lose it all back. 3-8% bets hitting around 55%+ is the way to go if you plan to keep betting the whole season. Of course, this is with something like 150-170 plays for the year.

Otherwise, take your winnings now and run!

[Happy Panther]

The pool of money you bet from. Big wins are fun, but keeping that up is just luck. You're far more likely to lose it all back. 3-8% bets hitting around 55%+ is the way to go if you plan to keep betting the whole season. Of course, this is with something like 150-170 plays for the year.

Otherwise, take your winnings now and run!

These are some strange and seemingly arbitrary strategies.

Reminds me of people who have a system for roulette.

[Wither]

I know some on the inside in Cleveland. They're not going to win this weekend. It's an easy bet..

Well aren't you just special.

[Razzy]

These are some strange and seemingly arbitrary strategies.

Reminds me of people who have a system for roulette.

Not strange at all, but I do have some strange betting systems to determine plays. Money management is just the backbone of any successful longterm handicapping strategy. Everyone is going to take bad beats, it's easier to overcome them if you place more small bets vs. less large bets.

[jim stone]

Some buddies back home owed me money and I told them to give it to my bookie (same town). Rolled it over twice. If I had the guts to do a parlay I would be up bigtime.

I don't usually bet this big.

Under looks good. I'd take a bit out for lunch money though. Grand maybe.

[Happy Panther]

Not strange at all, but I do have some strange betting systems to determine plays. Money management is just the backbone of any successful longterm handicapping strategy. Everyone is going to take bad beats, it's easier to overcome them if you place more small bets vs. less large bets.

You have fallen into the classic trap.

First of all you say that making a few hundred bets and hoping for 55% success is a strategy. Because of the vig your profit is around $0. So you really need to aim for 60% success which, unless you are one of the best handicappers in the world, is practically impossible on a long term basis.

This is akin to playing blackjack. Go to Vegas for a weekend and hope that the short term variance is in your favor. You may win.

Go to and play for a year? Literally impossible to win.

Your strategy just ensures that you will lose money slowly.

I'm going for the variance here.

[Razzy]

I would say you have fallen into the classic trap. You only need to hit 52-53% to cover the juice if you shop your lines right. Hitting 55-60% and it's very easy to double-triple your bankroll within a few months.

Oh well. To each their own.

[Happy Panther]

I would say you have fallen into the classic trap. You only need to hit 52-53% to cover the juice if you shop your lines right. Hitting 55-60% and it's very easy to double-triple your bankroll within a few months.

Oh well. To each their own.

60% is a joke and completely unsustainable long term. Nobody does this.

55% maybe if you have talent. Bug then according to your numbers you would be averaging 2.62% profit on each bet if you can bet EVERY bet at reduced vig of -1.05. 7.62% if you are a world class handicapper.

So if by some miracle you have the talent to beat the odds and you can avoid regular vig you can make $2.62 per $100 wagered. You would need to make hundreds and hundreds of bets to double any decent bankroll. Keep that "system."

The mean kills you long term. I'm in it for the variance and to enjoy the action.

[albiechaser]

Im seeing us score high 30s in this game HP, if the bears score 10, your in trouble.

hope you win $ but Cam could very well light these guys up,

Good luck Man

[edromeo]

Games I like:

Lions @ Cowboys

Saints @ Jags

Giants @ Cards

I'll probably tease and parlay and pick one game to play straight

[eViL jEsTeR]

take the pats -4.5 at oakland. after the loss to the bills, they will be on fire and the raiders false high over beating the jets will have them over confident.

to me, this is the pick of the week. the spreads on the other games are sketchy.

[Razzy]

Like I said Happy Panther, to each their own. I do understand where you're coming from though, I like to make "survivor" bets and roll them over through the season it does make things a lot more fun. I guess I just prefer to make money in the long grind, it has worked for me the past 2 years.

My favorite lean this week is Bal -3 vs Jets. Baltimore at home, Jets starting center is out, the Jets haven't been able to stop the run yet at all. I see Sanchez having another meltdown game on the road.

I also like New Orleans -6.5 and Houston -3.5.

[Happy Panther]

Hey Razzy. You get Pi and Swag for the adult responses.

But can I ask about the math around this? Are you varying your bets?

Either way good job.

NFL Betting Season so far: 13-10-2 ATS, +168% Bankroll

[Razzy]

Wow, that really came down to the wire on the cover. Good thing that Rivera isn't one to pack it in.

Good play. $$$

I usually take a few heavy leans and a couple low % plays per week. The number is a little inflated because I've been hitting my leans. This week I hit big on HOU, NO, DET, and WAS.