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Teams on the Way Up

Delhommey

By Delhommey,
in Carolina Panthers

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Delhommey Newbie

Delhommey

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Carolina Panthers

Odds to win the NFC South: +3442

That line implies that the Panthers will win the NFC South only 2.9 percent of the time. 2.9 percent! Think about how frequently randomly bad teams have suddenly popped up and had bizarre seasons that won them a division title. The 2009 Bengals won the AFC North after going 4-11-1 the previous season. The 2008 Dolphins went from 1-15 to the AFC East title in one year. The 2007 Bucs went from 4-12 to 9-7 and the NFC South title. Would it really be that extraordinary to see the Panthers win the NFC South?

Chances are they won't win the division, but it's absurd to think that they'll go 2-14 or worse again. Even Vegas thinks so — the over/under for the Panthers is set at 4.5 wins this season. Last year was a perfect storm of problems for Carolina, which was a respectable 8-8 team in 2009. Virtually every one of their above-average players got hurt at one point or another during the season. They lost star right tackle Jeff Otah and valuable linebacker Thomas Davis to season-ending injuries before Week 1 and never really replaced them. The team's running game dissipated when both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart struggled with injuries, while wide receiver Steve Smith missed two games and hobbled around for most of the year through a high ankle sprain. Cornerback Chris Gamble, the team's highest-paid defender at the time, missed five games with an ankle injury of his own. The coaching staff gave up on quarterback Matt Moore, and general manager Marty Hurney didn't bother to stock a veteran backup, leaving the team in the hands of Jimmy Clausen long before the rookie quarterback would ever have been ready. By the end of the year, the only stars left standing were linebacker Jon Beason, left tackle Jordan Gross, and center Ryan Kalil. Most of the players we mentioned should be healthier in 2011, and the guys who took their place will have gained experience in the meantime.

{cont}

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6936469/grantland-mega-nfl-preview-part-iii

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X-Clown Mentor

X-Clown

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2.9% sounds about right to me. Toughest division in football. We would need a good 11-12 wins to win our division.. I just don't see it happening with a rookie QB.

There's a separate article he wrote yesterday that pinpoints 8 teams that will fail to live up to expectations, which includes both the Falcons and the Bucs.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6934823/grantland-mega-nfl-preview-part-ii

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AviationMX Explorer

AviationMX

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Let see, in 2010 the over under for Tampa was 5.5 wins at Sportsbook.com and they went 10-6. Odds makers must hate the NFC south, every year some one catches fire but I would guess it's because a team in the division folds, usually due to injuries, like the panthers last year. SO for the Panthers to beat the 4.5 over /under some teams have to go under....ATL looks like the strongest team, so the young bucs will lose close games and the new found rushing game at NO will fail....and the panthers will have run like crazy with gadget plays to get out of the blocks early but should beat the under by gaining from the either tampa/NO not making their projected wins...prediction: Tampa goes under at 7 and NO at 8 and the panthers come on strong in the second half and wins 8...and comes close to the wild card. Damn I'm smoking some good stuff today..

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