Newton 5/1 to Win ROY

[panthers55]

Then again, the rest of the division has never been this strong, but hey, I hope you're right...

More to the point, teams in this division struggle to maintain their dominance from year to year. The year after New Orleans won the division in 2006 they went 8-8 in 2007 and opened the door for Tampa. Then Tampa falters late and opens up the door for us in 2008. We implode in 2009 and the Saints come rolling back. They still have a good year in 2010 but Atlanta nails it out of the park in 2010.

The division is strong for sure but it seems that the same team struggles to win the division 2 years in a row. Historically key injuries have played a huge role in that.

[TheRealDeal]

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

[OnlyPantherFaninMaine]

Has the bleacherreport article that goes through Cam's season game by game with stats and commentary each week been posted yet? I'm sure it has, it was written over a week ago. Doesn't mean anything and completely speculative but it was fun to read anyways.

The writer predicted him to have 3500+ passing yards, 1000+ rushing yards, and something like 25-9 TDs/INTs. He also dominated the ROY race.

[SnarkAttack]

Actually by playing a bunch of rookies and young players last year, we have done quite a bit to improve our offense. Newton alone will help us double our win total. Gettis and LaFell are no longer rookies and it is common knowledge that players typically make their biggest gains between year 1 and 2. We will likely not lose Williams but even if we did, Stewart is our best running back right now and Goodson is only getting better. Our line should be healthy and even if they aren't, both Bernadeau and Schwartz got plenty of playing time and will be much improved. Otah will be back and ready unless he is still playing soft and refusing to play through discomfort. One of the big sleepers this year will be Ziemba. At 6'8" and 317 lbs he will be another in a long line of late round offensive line draft picks for Hurney that will pay off big dividends down the road.

If we pick up a veteran wide receiver to replace Smith or simply keep Smith this year, I would expect we will easily average one touchdown more than we did last year. At roughly 20 points a game, we will be in most games and will win at least 5 maybe a few more. That is a huge improvement for our offense and my analysis is being conservative at this point.

Lot of good points - but c'mon, WRs do not usually make their biggest strides b/t years 1 and 2, everybody that knows the NFL knows it usually comes later. Williams is our best back, IMO, but I will agree that I don't foresee a big dropoff there b/t Stewart/Dwill. Also, if we go into this season with LaFell and Gettis as our 1 and 2 receivers, I PROMISE you we are screwed in that dept. I'm not even going on "sleeper" rookies b/c, well, we haven't even had a practice to evaluate them. Oh, and Bernadeu is absolutely terrible, BTW. I would like to see Duke Robinson step up as well as Corvey Irvin (highly doubt that one) Likewise, IF we can hang on to CJ, that will be a HUGE boost...

[panthers55]

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

I thought you knew about Vegas and gambling but from your post you don't seem to have a clue. Vegas odds are controlled not by who is going to win but by how folks are betting as you loosely intimate. If a bunch of folks bet on newton and no one else then the odds for Newton to win go down like from 5-1 to 3-1 and other player odds go up to encourage evening out the betting on other guys. They manage the betting making sure it doesn't get skewed in one direction or the other too much to limit their liability. Their goal is to make money no matter who wins. Vegas doesn't want too much money on any one player but raather wants it distributed among all of them so they manipulate the odds to do that. So instead of being free money, too much betting on one player to them is a bad thing not a good one.

Yeah of course you will say you already knew that but once again your post doesn't reflect it.

[Udogg]

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

Yeah all those black people in the South really pushing up those vegas lines.........

[mmmbeans]

Yeah all those black people in the South really pushing up those vegas lines.........

"put me down for everyone who is white."

[ncmonzta]

Have you seen the amount of Camdemonium around here?

Add in a few more states where he used to play and all the people that root for him solely on his race and position and it's not that far fetched that these morons can affect Vegas lines.

Vegas likely sees it as free money.

[TheRealDeal]

So instead of being free money, too much betting on one player to them is a bad thing not a good one.

Yeah of course you will say you already knew that but once again your post doesn't reflect it.

You miss the point.

Cam probably started out 10-1. With all the assclowns betting on him, he's down to 5-1 while the more realistic candidates are sitting at better odds but no one is taking them because they've fallen for the hype.

As the bets keep coming in for Cam, his odds get lower, 8-1, 6.5-1, 5-1 but they know that each bet that comes in is cash in their pocket so they love it.

[Gipetto]

i see him having a decent rooking season filled with alot of mistakes but alot of WOW moments but RoY is wishful thinking

[panthers55]

Lot of good points - but c'mon, WRs do not usually make their biggest strides b/t years 1 and 2, everybody that knows the NFL knows it usually comes later. Williams is our best back, IMO, but I will agree that I don't foresee a big dropoff there b/t Stewart/Dwill. Also, if we go into this season with LaFell and Gettis as our 1 and 2 receivers, I PROMISE you we are screwed in that dept. I'm not even going on "sleeper" rookies b/c, well, we haven't even had a practice to evaluate them. Oh, and Bernadeu is absolutely terrible, BTW. I would like to see Duke Robinson step up as well as Corvey Irvin (highly doubt that one) Likewise, IF we can hang on to CJ, that will be a HUGE boost...

I would agree that the old adage may be less true for some positions versus others, like wide receiver, but I randomly picked 2007 to 2008 as representative and looked at whether rookie wide receivers improved from year 1 to year 2. I looked at only wide receivers and disqualified them if they were injured or weren't a starter at least a few games. Here is what I found for the top rookie wide receivers (there were a bunch of TEs and running backs once you got past the top 4 or 5 names).

------------------rookie year------------2nd year

----------------catches--Yards----TDs----catches----yards----TDs

Dwayne Bowe---70-------995-------3--------86--------1022-----7

Calvin Johnson---48-------756------4--------78--------1331-----12

James Jones injured

Anthony Gonzales-37-----576------3---------57--------664------4

Ted Ginn---------34------420-----2---------56---------790-----2

Sydney Rice- didn't start much year 1 or 2

In 2008 here are the results

Eddie Royal----91--------980----5 ----------37--------345-------0

DeSean Jackson--62-----912----2-----------62--------1156------9

Davone Bess-----54-----552----1-----------76--------758-------2

Donnie Avery-----53-----674----3-----------47--------589-------5

Jordy Nelson- didn't start any games

Harry Douglas- injured in 2009

So I noticed a few tendencies. Receivers who started their rookie years and put up decent numbers tended to improve year 2. Guys who didn't start much at all their rookie year many times didn't do much in year 2. The further down the list you got beyond the first 5 or 6 guys, the spottier the results and the less conclusions you could make. Overall there aren't very many rookie receivers who have great years.

Implications for us??

LaFell and Gettis were lited as the 4th and 5th most productive wide receivers as rookies in 2010.

Here are their numbers:

Lafell-----38 catches- 468 yards- 12.3 average and 1 TD

Gettis----37 catches 508 yards- 13.7 average and 3 TDs

If they progress this year as I think they will I would expect both of them to average 45-50 catches- 600-650 yards and perhaps 4 or 5 TDs apiece. Of course if Smitty stays and Shockey gets lots of balls, those numbers could stay the same or even go down.

2 things I also noted- Sydney Rice had 1 good year in his four in the league and would be a huge gamble. I thought Eddie Royale was good as well but the numbers don't support it.

[panthers55]

You miss the point.

Cam probably started out 10-1. With all the assclowns betting on him, he's down to 5-1 while the more realistic candidates are sitting at better odds but no one is taking them because they've fallen for the hype.

As the bets keep coming in for Cam, his odds get lower, 8-1, 6.5-1, 5-1 but they know that each bet that comes in is cash in their pocket so they love it.

He probably started out 10-1. For someone who wants facts instead of assumptions you are going out on a limb in your first sentence.

Secondly this bet is one of hundreds of thousands that come in on everything and everybody. They don't care about Newton or any of those guys, they just care about the flow of the betting and make sure that when they pay out the winners, they have more money coming in from all the losers to more than cover it. No one is sitting back there saying wow look at all the money newton is producing here. They just control the flow of the bets and make sure the total money works out. They love people who bet, period. They don't care what you bet on.

[panthers55]

i see him having a decent rooking season filled with alot of mistakes but alot of WOW moments but RoY is wishful thinking

What do you think it takes?? Most rookies don't play that well. Usually one or two guys have outstanding seasons. Given that rookie quarterbacks have won it 4 times in the last 7 years and they all started day 1 like newton is projected to do, he has a dcent chance to be that guy. Who thought Bradford would have a great year in 2010???

[Ivan The Awesome]

This does NOT surprise me whatsoever... The dude is a phenom. ROY is a lock... Pro bowl, a lock... SuperBowl MVP??? <---- that's just the best case scenario in which we are all hoping will come to fruition!

I've grown kinda fond of Cam in the past month or so. But I think you're going a little over board..